Premier League results this weekend might mean that the battle to qualify for the Champions League may have cooled, but the race to secure spots in the Europa League and Conference League is reaching boiling point.
This weekend’s Premier League action produced some big results in the battle to qualify for next season’s UEFA Champions League.
Both Manchester United and Liverpool won crucial games in their quest to finish inside the top five – now confirmed to be enough for UCL football next season after an excellent campaign in European competition for English clubs.
Man Utd’s 1-0 win at Chelsea on Saturday night means that they have opened up a 10-point gap between themselves and the London club in sixth place, and are close to securing a return to Europe’s most elite competition in 2026-27.
The Red Devils currently finish inside the top five in the Premier League across 98.4% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 season simulations, which is behind only Aston Villa (98.7%) and both Arsenal and Manchester City, who have already secured a top-five position.
Virgil van Dijk’s added-time winner for Liverpool in the Merseyside derby against Everton has also put them in a strong position to finish inside the top five this season, while also dealing a severe blow to Everton’s outside hopes.
Liverpool now finish inside the top five in 88.9% of the Opta supercomputer’s projections, with Everton – now eight points behind them in the table – doing so across only 0.8% of simulations.
After thrashing Aston Villa 4-1 away from home on 4 March, Chelsea looked well placed to qualify for the Champions League in fifth, only three points behind both Man Utd and Villa in the table.
However, a disastrous four-game losing streak has followed, with defeats to Newcastle, Everton, Man City and Man Utd pushing them to outsiders in the conversation for a top-five finish.
Even securing a top-seven finish, which as it stands is enough to secure European football next season, looks to be a coin flip. Liam Rosenior’s side finish in the top seven places in 49% of the Opta supercomputer’s current sims, with the remaining 51% of them ending with Chelsea finishing between eighth and 15th.
Ignoring the potential of additional spots opening for Europe if an English club wins the Europa League or Conference League, or if Manchester City win the FA Cup, there’s a decent chance that Bournemouth or Brentford will play European football next season for the first time ever.
Brentford, who have done superbly in Keith Andrews’ first season as a head coach, currently occupy seventh position in the Premier League table, which would, as things stand, get them into next season’s Conference League.
Bournemouth are level on points with Brentford and Chelsea, but have an inferior goal difference, while Brighton and Everton trail them by only a point, and Sunderland sit in 11th, two points away from sixth place.
Fulham are only three points away from sixth, while Crystal Palace could join them on 45 points with a win over West Ham on Monday night.
The congestion between sixth and 13th in the Premier League table is unlike any other seen in Europe’s other top leagues.
Granted, seventh place in La Liga, Serie A, the Bundesliga or Ligue 1 this season isn’t currently enough to qualify for European football next season, but the race for a place in Europe isn’t anywhere near as congested as it is in England.
On a points-per-game basis, just 0.07 separates Crystal Palace in 13th and Chelsea in sixth. The gap in the Bundesliga is 0.70, Ligue 1 is 0.60, Serie A is 0.58 and La Liga 0.29.
Whether or not you agree with the Opta supercomputer’s projections for the rest of 2025-26, there’s no denying that the battle to secure the final spots in Europe next season is as exciting as it’s ever been.
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