Newcastle United are 14th in the Premier League with six games left but could also still qualify for Europe. How the next few weeks go could make a huge difference to how progress under Eddie Howe is viewed.
There has been a lot of hope and optimism around Newcastle United in recent years. The wealth of the owners following their takeover in 2021, the solid work from head coach Eddie Howe, winning a trophy, and qualifying for the UEFA Champions League in two of the last three seasons.
It hasn’t been linear progress though. After finishing fourth in Howe’s first full season in 2022-23, the 2023-24 campaign saw Newcastle struggle to manage European commitments alongside their league program. They did rescue a somewhat respectable seventh-place finish after they were knocked out of the Champions League, however.
With only domestic football in 2024-25, Newcastle ended their lengthy drought without a major trophy when lifting the League Cup. They also qualified for the UCL again with a fifth-place finish.
This season was always going to be a real test of their mettle. How far had they come since 2023-24? Could they now manage a strong league campaign alongside showing their credentials on the biggest European stage?
They respectably reached the last 16 of the Champions League, where they were eliminated by Barcelona. While a rather chastening experience, it at least allowed Newcastle to focus on the league.
However, after painful defeats to Sunderland and Crystal Palace since then, Howe’s men find themselves 14th in the Premier League with just six games remaining.
In a month that was almost a microcosm of modern-day Newcastle United, March included a dramatic late win over Manchester United with 10 men, an impressive 1-1 draw with Barcelona in the Champions League that was minutes away from being a famous victory, and their first win at Chelsea since 2012.
After that, though, they suffered the ignominy of a 7-2 thrashing at the hands of Barça in the return leg at Camp Nou, and things have continued to go wrong since.
Both losses to Sunderland and Palace occurred after Howe’s men had gone 1-0 up, which has been a theme throughout the 2025-26 campaign. Newcastle have dropped a remarkable 25 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, five more than any other side. It is a huge difference from last term, when they dropped just seven points from winning positions, the fewest in the league.
It doesn’t help that they’ve conceded 18 goals after the 75th minute of games, three more than any other team, and already double what they conceded in that period themselves last season (9). That makes up 38% of the total goals they’ve allowed, the highest percentage in the league. Whether it’s tiredness, a lack of concentration, or both, Newcastle are struggling to manage games late on.
They also aren’t responding well when falling behind. They have only won three points from a losing position in the Premier League this season, the joint-lowest along with Manchester City, though obviously the Magpies have been in a losing position more often than Pep Guardiola’s side. Newcastle won 19 points from losing positions last season, the fifth most in England’s top flight.
It should be noted that the numbers mentioned suggest Newcastle are often falling behind late in games this season, so would obviously therefore not have much time to fight back.
They lost five of their 10 games immediately following a midweek European commitment this season (W4 D1), but what was notable about their 2-1 loss at Selhurst Park on Sunday was that they were the ones who came into it fresh. Hosts Palace had played Fiorentina in the Conference League just three days earlier and finished this game stronger, coming from a goal down to win just their fourth home league game of the season.
Perhaps it was too much time off in between games for Newcastle, who had to spend three weeks wallowing in their heartbreaking home defeat to rivals Sunderland prior to that.
So, where are things going wrong for the Magpies?
Injuries are an obvious place to start. Every team suffers injuries, but it is tricky to think of many Newcastle players who have not had at least a brief spell on the sidelines this season.
A lack of consistency in team selection as a result could be a factor. Only three Newcastle players have started more than 22 of their 32 league games this season (Malick Thiaw – 27, Sandro Tonali – 26, Anthony Gordon – 24), though that could also be down to rotation around European games. Only Tottenham and Wolves (both 3) have had as few players make more than 22 league appearances in 2025-26.
Being unable to play their first-choice midfield in the league recently has undoubtedly hampered them. Their preferred trio of Joelinton, Tonali and Bruno Guimarães have started just 13 league games together this season, and not at all since the 0-0 draw at Wolves on 18 January. Newcastle have a win percentage of 46.2% when those three have all started, compared to just 31.6% when they haven’t.
The hope for them is that Guimarães recovers from his thigh injury in time to face Arsenal in a couple of weeks, but Joelinton is now suspended for the next two games (Bournemouth and Arsenal) after receiving his 10th yellow card of the season in the defeat to Palace.
They have really missed Guimarães in recent weeks. The Brazilian is their top scorer in the Premier League this season with nine goals, while he has also created the most chances both overall (38) and from open play (30).
Then you have all the noise around the future of Tonali, who is being linked with a summer move. That potential distraction just after the huge disappointment of failing to qualify for the World Cup with Italy cannot be easy for the former Milan midfielder.
You also can’t ignore the impact of losing Alexander Isak to Liverpool last summer. The Sweden striker may not be the most popular man on Tyneside anymore after leaving, but his impact at the club during his time there was undeniable. Isak scored 23 goals in 32 Premier League appearances last season; no Newcastle player has even reached double figures yet in 2025-26.
One of his replacements, Nick Woltemade, made a bright start after arriving from Stuttgart, scoring seven times in his first 14 Premier League appearances (all starts). However, the tall German hasn’t found the net in his last 14 in the league (seven starts). His last league goal was his second in the 2-2 home draw with Chelsea on 20 December.
As for the other big summer striker signing, despite Yoane Wissa coming back from injury in December, the former Brentford man has just one league goal in 14 appearances (four starts).
Howe explained that his selection of William Osula from the start ahead of Woltemade and Wissa at Palace was on merit, and the young Denmark international rewarded his boss with the opening goal. Osula has scored in two of his last three Premier League appearances for Newcastle, including a superb winner against Man Utd at St. James’ Park, after only scoring in two of his first 50 outings in the competition.
Newcastle haven’t generally struggled for goals overall, though. Only seven teams have scored more than their 45. Only six teams have had more shots (416), though nine teams have recorded a higher xG than their 47.9, so perhaps they are simply not creating the sufficient quality of chances.
The problem has more been in defence. Only six teams have conceded more goals than Newcastle in the Premier League this season (47), even though only seven teams have allowed fewer shots (381). Their xG against of 42.5 is the seventh best in the division, which could explain why Howe recently started selecting Aaron Ramsdale ahead of Nick Pope.
When you look at Newcastle’s rolling xG since the start of 2023-24, you can see there’s been peaks and troughs. It has particularly seemed to swing rather dramatically in a positive or negative direction around the middle of a campaign, but most concerning for Howe will be the recent trend.
For the first time this season, Newcastle’s six-game rolling average xG for is stretching to more than 0.5 worse than their xG against. Of course, xG can often be taken with a pinch of salt, especially single-game xG, but over a longer period of time it usually paints a fairly accurate picture of a team’s performances and fortunes.
This has all been rather negative, especially with the last three results for Newcastle being so disappointing, but if looking back at recent seasons has taught us anything, it’s that Howe’s men have a habit of bouncing back and silencing their doubters.
Reports suggest Howe still has the backing of the club, but the situation will be reviewed at the end of the season.
Things don’t get any easier, though. Howe takes on his former employers Bournemouth next, who are fresh off winning at leaders Arsenal and are on the longest current Premier League unbeaten run (12 games), not losing since facing the Gunners in their reverse fixture on 3 January. However, Newcastle did beat the Cherries on penalties in the FA Cup a week after that game, so have recent fond memories of the fixture.
After that, there is a trip to Arsenal for the Magpies, which will have the eyes of the Premier League on it due to its importance in the title race. They then finish their campaign with games against Brighton (H), Nottingham Forest (A), West Ham (H) and Fulham (A).
It is important to stress that while Newcastle sit in 14th place, they are just six points off sixth, such is the nature of the middle of the Premier League right now. They could yet earn European football next season.
How the rest of their season plays out will have a huge impact on how Newcastle’s progress this season will be viewed. Will difficult questions need to be asked, or could they show that there are still solid foundations to be built on?
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