West Ham were left heartbroken by a late VAR review in their defeat to Arsenal on Sunday, but the points totals posted by all of their relegation rivals are a bigger problem for them.
The pressure on Chris Kavanagh was immense.
As the referee took up his position in front of the monitor deep into second-half stoppage time at the end of West Ham’s game against Arsenal, he will have known as well as anybody that he couldn’t get this decision wrong.
Callum Wilson thought he had equalised, his powerful effort crossing the line after a monumental scrap at a West Ham corner, the slow-motion replays and stills of which have been pored over relentlessly in the hours since.
Kavanagh took his time and ultimately adjudged that in the chaos of the Arsenal penalty area, Pablo had impeded David Raya sufficiently to rule the goal out.
The decision was never going to be universally popular. It brought jubilation in the away end because it took Arsenal a step closer to winning the Premier League, but it also subjected West Ham to the kind of agony that only a VAR review can bring. Before the VAR era, once the on-field referee had awarded a goal – as Kavanagh had done – you could be sure it would not be taken away. Seeing a goal chalked off – particularly one of this potential magnitude – after you’ve celebrated is difficult to take.
It’s understandable that West Ham supporters will struggle to take much solace from the fact the correct decision may well have been reached. It’s a subjective call and, VAR or no VAR, football is rarely able to say with complete certainty that any subjective refereeing decision is the right one, even if the consensus here seems to be that Raya was fouled.
And so, here we are, with an imperfect system producing an imperfect outcome that has left West Ham bereft. After their 1-0 defeat to Arsenal was confirmed, they are staring at an increasingly likely return to the Championship for the first time since 2011-12. Their chances of relegation are, according to the Opta supercomputer, rated at 86.7%, when in the brief period for which the score was 1-1, those chances had dropped to 68.0%.
However, while very few West Ham fans may be willing to accept Kavanagh’s decision given how significant its consequences appear, the damage had already been done.
With five losses in six games in autumn – a run that spanned the end of Graham Potter’s reign and the start of Nuno Espírito Santo’s – and a 10-game winless streak during the winter, West Ham were left with too much to do to recover.
In mid-January, just before the latter of those runs came to an end, they were third from bottom, seven points off safety having taken just 14 points from 21 games. It was always going to be an uphill battle from there. Only one team has ever had as poor a record at that stage of a 38-game Premier League season and survived: West Brom’s ‘great escape’ team of 2004-05.
But at the same time, their recovery since has been commendable. Since Nuno’s appointment, West Ham have been the 17th best team in the league, earning six points more than Tottenham (having played a game extra, ahead of Monday’s match against Leeds).
And more recently, they have been a team worthy of a top-half position. Since 16 January, the day before their form turned around with a 2-1 win at Spurs, West Ham have the eighth best record in the league, taking 22 points from 15 games.
That is the team they are right now. One who can beat Spurs, Fulham, Everton, Wolves, Sunderland and Burnley; who can take points off title-chasing Manchester City and in-form Manchester United; who can come within a VAR call of drawing with the best team in the country. They are far too good to be playing Championship football next season, but they look concerningly likely to be at the time of writing.
And while they may well be feeling aggrieved at how they came to lose to Arsenal, their despair should arguably be directed elsewhere. They can have legitimate gripes about how unfortunate they are to be in this situation at all given how many points they have won, particularly since the turn of the year.
West Ham are now on 36 points, a total that would have been enough to survive in each of the last nine seasons. It would have been enough to stay up in 18 of the 30 38-game Premier League seasons overall. They could quite feasibly make it to 40 points and still go down – something only three teams have ever done before, and none of which have come in the last 23 seasons.
The most recent example of a team going down with such a high points total was West Ham in 2002-03, when they were relegated with a record 42 points. That is the highest points total ever for a team finishing 18th in a 20-team Premier League season, and West Ham were on the wrong side of history that year.
In the years since, the highest points total for an 18th-placed team was 39 for Birmingham City in 2010-11 and, guess what, that was the only other season in which West Ham were relegated (33 points).
So, on the only two occasions in the last 27 seasons when 40 points (or more) was needed to survive in the Premier League, West Ham have been relegated. Incredibly, it could happen for a third time this season, too.
West Ham will hope to take at least three points from their final two games – away to Newcastle and at home to Leeds. That would take them to 39 points, which would equal the tally of that Birmingham side mentioned above.
And after Sunday’s display, West Ham may well hope to win both of their matches. That would take them to 42 points: could history be repeating itself?
Defeat to Arsenal meant Nottingham Forest and Leeds are both safe. The only team West Ham can now catch is Tottenham, who have a game in hand – against Leeds on Monday night – and if they win that, they’ll move to 40 points with two games remaining. They look rejuvenated under Roberto De Zerbi, and will hope to carry the momentum of winning their last two games into their final three outings.
Their form could render West Ham’s efforts redundant, and that could spell another painful relegation in a season when those around them post record points totals.
Plenty of people will have sympathy with West Ham that they were on the wrong end of a historic VAR call on Sunday afternoon.
However, perhaps the real reason the club should feel that football has been unfair on them is that they could be relegated for a third time when those around them have posted record-breaking totals, making their task of survival almost impossible.
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