Manchester City are in fine form and Arsenal showed on Sunday, even in defeat, how threatening they can be. The title race is in for an incredible conclusion.
Apparently, Manchester City’s win over Arsenal on Sunday has decided the title race.
That appears to be the fatalistic view that a lot of people are taking. City are in form, only three points off top spot with a game in hand, and boast a vast amount of experience in previous title races, which they tend to win, too.
But while some might feel it is a foregone conclusion, not least Arsenal fans traumatised by their team’s failures in the last few years, truthfully, it really isn’t that simple.
Both teams are very capable of slipping up. Arsenal have proved as much in the last few weeks, but City, too, are only on a two-match winning streak in the league. Only three games ago, they threw away a lead to draw with West Ham, having also just blown two leads to draw with Nottingham Forest. It might feel like they have the momentum to win all of their remaining games, but that would mean extending their run by six games to an eight-match winning streak. That would be a significant jump, even for them.
Most importantly, however, there is a chance that six wins from their remaining six games still isn’t enough to win the league. That’s because if Arsenal also win all of their last five matches, both teams will finish on 85 points.
That would mean the title race comes down to goal difference. Both teams will probably head into their remaining games hoping that a 100% record would be enough to win the title, but they may also have to assume that boosting their goal difference may be necessary. That could mean we’re in for a hell of a run-in where both teams don’t just go for wins, but big wins.
It might still hand the advantage to City, who, with a game in hand, have more opportunities to improve their goal difference. The teams are currently separated by a single goal, with Arsenal just in front, so there is a chance that they’ll be level on points and goal difference after City play Burnley on Wednesday night. City would then lead on goals scored (they are currently two ahead).
City also have previous at this time of year. Inside the final 10 games of Premier League seasons, Pep Guardiola’s side have won 33 of their last 44 matches and have lost just once. In those games, they are averaging 2.48 points per game. That has been the difference for them in close title battles many times before.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have a terrible record at this time of year. April remains the only month in which Mikel Arteta has overseen wins in under half of his games in charge.
However, even in defeat at the Etihad on Sunday, however damaging that might have been, there were a great deal of positives for Arsenal to take. They caused City all kinds of problems, ‘winning’ on xG by 1.62 to 1.36, hitting the woodwork twice and creating five big chances. No team has had more big chances away to City in a Premier League game in 2025-26, and the only side that had as many did so during City’s worst run of form all campaign (Brighton on 7 January). Arsenal did it when City have looked at their best.
Arteta has been said to be too cautious many times before during his Arsenal reign, but no such criticisms can be levelled against him for this game. Arsenal were bold, front-footed, and ambitious. They could have played for a draw – many others might have – but they tried to win the game, and on another day it could have worked.
They might have got a little fortunate with Kai Havertz’s equaliser, but Gianluigi Donnarumma’s mistake wouldn’t have happened if Arsenal hadn’t set out to press City high up the pitch. Arsenal recorded more pressures (458) than they have in any other Premier League game this season.
Havertz missed one of the best chances of the game at 1-1, and shortly after, Eberechi Eze struck the inside of the post with Donnarumma beaten. Havertz also headed over deep in second-half stoppage time, missing a massive chance to equalise.
“We came here to win the game,” Arteta said. “The message was clear from three days before. We prepared to do that, to take the game to the areas that we believe we could win it.
“But the reality is in the two boxes today was the difference. That’s what decided the game.”
Ultimately, they only scored once – they haven’t scored more than twice in any of their last 12 competitive games – but their performance at the Etihad should give them at least some confidence that they can rediscover their goalscoring touch for the run-in.
What’s more, all five of Arsenal’s remaining league games are against teams in the bottom half of the table, and they have a brilliant record against teams down there. They have won 12 and drawn three of their 15 games against sides who are currently in the bottom half of the Premier League, scoring 37 goals and conceding just eight.
That gives them a goal difference of +29 in those games, increasing their goal difference by an average of +1.9 per game. Unsurprisingly, that is far better than their record against top-half teams.
Three of their remaining games are at home, too, and at home to bottom-half teams, they have seven wins from seven this season and a goal difference of +18. The fixture list couldn’t be much more favourable.
Pessimistic Arsenal fans, of which there appear to be quite a few right now, might suggest that their team isn’t the same one that beat Leeds 9-0 over two fixtures earlier this season, or the one that beat Sunderland 3-0 in February; that the pressure of the title race is holding the players back.
But the evidence on Sunday, when the pressure was at its greatest, suggests that this team can attack and create chances regularly, even in the absence of Bukayo Saka, their best attacking player. They may need to go for it in their last five games to give them best chance of beating City to the title.
City have already proven their attacking credentials. Over the last few weeks, they have won four games against Arsenal (twice), Liverpool and Chelsea by an aggregate score of 11-1. Erling Haaland is scoring, Rayan Cherki and Jérémy Doku are both in fine form, and Nico O’Reilly has been a revelation as an attack-minded left-back.
They have improved defensively, too, with Donnarumma’s howler against Arsenal the only goal they have conceded in their last 360 minutes of action. They have the tougher remaining fixtures but they won’t fear anyone. They’ll believe they can win every game. And they may well be keen to attack and look to score as many goals as possible.
Both teams should, however, heed the lesson learned in 2013-14 by Liverpool who, after Steven Gerrard’s slip in defeat to Chelsea, needed to overturn an eight-goal deficit to City in the space of just two games. When they went 3-0 up in their infamous penultimate game away to Crystal Palace, striker Luis Suárez ran and got the ball out of the back of the net, in the hope of bolstering their goal difference even more.
Liverpool piled men forward and got caught out, ultimately drawing the game 3-3. Although it wasn’t directly responsible for them not winning the title, the result did mean City could afford to drop points in one of their remaining games. It essentially took the pressure off their rivals.
The priority for both City and Arsenal will be to win each game. Take each one as it comes and win. Then, just hope it’s enough to win the title.
But in the back of their minds, it may also be hard to shake the knowledge that their rivals could also win all of their matches. Both will be the favourites in every individual game and could quite feasibly both take maximum points.
The title race could genuinely come down to goal difference. It has only ever happened once before – in 2011-12 – and there are a lot of results that have to fit together for this season’s title race to go down to the wire.
But it is a real possibility with just a handful of games remaining. That would mean winning a game 3-0 instead of 2-0 could be crucial. With any one-goal lead, a decision will have to be made whether to protect the scoreline as it is or go for a second.
It could make for a fascinating and hugely entertaining end to the season. Handbrake off.
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