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World Cup has ‘no influence’ on transfer decisions – Frankfurt’s transfer guru reveals
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It has been a turbulent season for Eintracht Frankfurt’s board member of sport, Markus Krösche. For the first time since the 2021/22 season, Frankfurt missed out on European football. With the team struggling, Krösche opted to replace head coach Dino Toppmöller, hiring Albert Riera, who is now also history. “It was my wrong assessment,” Krösche said in an exclusive interview with Transfermarkt. Krösche caught up with Transfermarkt in Toronto to chat about the club’s season, trends on the transfer market, Bayern Munich target Nathaniel Brown, exploring new markets and whether the World Cup is a good place to scout players.
Staff
M. Krösche
Age: 45
Eintracht Frankfurt
The World Cup is perhaps the best place to start. Krösche and his team are in place to monitor the tournament and the latest trends in world football. But is the tournament a good place to scout players? After all, at best, a player will be playing just eight games, which would be a very small sample size to judge a player’s abilities. “It used to be far more,” Krösche said about clubs buying players based on tournament performance. “We used to put far more weight into those few games. But I think football has learned. Today the scouting is far more strategic. In my opinion, a tournament doesn’t have the same impact on a club's decision as it did perhaps ten years ago."
Indeed, Krösche stressed that today, much of the work in player evaluation happens ahead of a major tournament. “Today we have so many more aids to judge players, including AI, which can help to make a more long-term decision on a player and can influence our decisions far better,” Krösche said. "With that in mind, in my opinion, a tournament has almost no influence on the decision on whether a player will get signed or not.”
Can a World Cup influence market values? “It is the world’s biggest event”
That doesn’t mean that a player’s market value isn’t impacted by what happens at a big tournament. “Of course, a World Cup can influence a market value for the public; it is the world’s biggest event. But within the industry, that doesn’t have that much influence. The market value develops through league play, the international club competitions; a tournament is more about confirming a high market value.”
Still, history is full of players signed based on their performance at a major tournament, such as the Euros or the World Cup. “If you want to increase the likelihood of successful scouting and ensure that the player works out, that he has the potential, then you need to scout a fair number of games,” Krösche said. “For us, before we make the decision whether we sign a player or not, they must play a few games more than is usually the case at a tournament. I just think it is very difficult to decide on a player based on a few World Cup games. They can confirm their league performances at a tournament."
That doesn’t mean a World Cup doesn’t provide important data points for clubs like Eintracht Frankfurt. “You get a good overview of the general level of football around the world,” Krösche said. “I always find it interesting to see the development, how close smaller countries are to Europe or the South Americans. The smaller South American countries, how much have they caught up to Europe? That’s important for me to see.” One country outside of Europe and South America that has stood out is Morocco. “They are comparable with European top teams. They have gotten very close.”
Krösche: Talent development “is a holistic process”
For a club like Eintracht Frankfurt, it is paramount to keep a tab on emerging markets. After all, the club is still in a situation where they need to develop players and sell them with a profit. “I would say that 90% of clubs are dependent financially on generating money on the transfer market,” Krösche said. “There is maybe a handful of teams that always compete for the Champions League, who aren’t dependent on generating money on the transfer market. But those teams have access to more external capital. They are in a completely different situation.”
Under Krösche’s guidance, Frankfurt have sold Randal Kolo Muani (€95m to PSG), Hugo Ekitiké (€95m to Liverpool), Omar Marmoush (€75m to Man City), and Wilian Pacho (€40m to PSG). All those players were signed for relatively little money. In other words, under Krösche, Frankfurt have managed to hit the transfer jackpot, increasing revenue at a high rate. But that’s not a given. “That’s a new challenge every year,” Krösche said. “Part of our squad planning is to sign players with potential and to develop them.” The next player on the list could be Brown. Signed for just €3.5m from 2. Bundesliga club 1. FC Nürnberg, Brown has been heavily linked with a €55m transfer to Bayern Munich. Transfermarkt understands that the transfer is now nearly complete.
It is an incredible track record. But how does Frankfurt keep finding these talented players and then gives them a situation to develop? “A big part is to have a good team around the team,” Krösche said. “It is a holistic process. It starts with how we pick players with potential, then with how the team around them works to develop those players. It is about giving these players the time to develop on the pitch. You must trust them even when they make mistakes. The young players are in an environment where they are comfortable and can grow. That’s our task.”
Competition from other clubs: Finding talent “is getting harder”
At the same time, finding talent is getting harder for clubs like Frankfurt. The main reason is increased competition. “We must look at new markets and be more efficient,” Krösche said. “That’s always going to be our path to be more efficient, faster and to make good decisions.” Another issue is that as Frankfurt have become better, the expectations have grown, which means that there is now a higher floor that talented players have to meet if they want to join the club. “Ultimately, we have to find the balance between developing players and having a certain amount of quality in our squad to reach our goals.”
Market Value
P. Aaronson
Attacking Midfield
€6.00m
With that in mind, Frankfurt are constantly exploring new markets. One of those markets is North America. Frankfurt did sign Paxten Aaronson from Philadelphia Union in 2023. The midfielder has since returned to Major League Soccer. “Aaronson was a good example that we have an eye on the North American market, especially among those markets outside of Europe. The same is true for the Japanese market. The number of players with potential in North America is enormous. You see it in the development of Major League Soccer and the structures beneath it, such as the USL. You can also see it with the growth of academies. That will only grow in the future. The same is true for Canada. That market is just as interesting as and has grown significantly over the last few years.”
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