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It isn’t very common for the Premier League‘s top two to face off this late into the season. We look at what has happened on the previous occasions they have met.
On Sunday, a rare thing will happen. Arsenal, currently in first place in the Premier League, travel to face second-placed Manchester City for a top-of-the-table meeting that will have a huge say on the title race.
It will be only the ninth time in Premier League history that the top two have played one another this late into a season – with both teams having at most seven games remaining – in a meaningful game (not after the title race was over) and with as few as six points separating them.
And this weekend is the first time since 2014 that it has happened. There have been a few clashes between the top two in the last 12 years, but none have come quite this late into the season and with the teams within six points of one another. For example, City’s 4-1 win over Arsenal in April 2023 proved pivotal in that season’s title race, but City had eight games left at that stage, so there was slightly less pressure on it than this weekend’s meeting.
So, what tends to happen in these crucial, end-of-season, top-two showdowns that meet our criteria? Does the team in first place, with the lead and therefore by definition the better team over the course of the season so far have the quality to fend off their challengers? Or is momentum more important coming into the game? What about title-race know-how? And what does the result mean for that season’s title race?
Here are the eight occasions that first has faced second in the Premier League with both teams into their final seven games of the season and at most six points separating them.
Liverpool (2nd) 1-3 Manchester United (1st), 19 April 1997
Manchester United went to Anfield two points ahead of Liverpool and with a game in hand at the end of the 1996-97 season. They had the lead with just five games remaining, but they’d had a little wobble, losing at Sunderland and at home to Derby in the weeks leading up to this match.
Liverpool, too, though, were lacking in form, and they fell to a home defeat against the three-time Premier League winners, who would go on to win a fourth title.
Title winners: Manchester United
Manchester United (2nd) 0-1 Arsenal (1st), 8 May 2002
With a five-point lead and just two games to play, Arsenal knew a draw at Old Trafford would win the title. They came into this game on an 11-game winning streak and unbeaten in 19 Premier League games, so they had all the momentum.
United had to win to stand any chance of catching Arsenal, but they couldn’t manage it, and a narrow away victory thanks to Sylvain Wiltord’s winner ended the title race.
Title winners: Arsenal
Arsenal (2nd) 2-2 Manchester United (1st), 16 April 2003
Arsenal came into this game three points behind first-placed United, who were on a 13-game unbeaten streak but with a game in hand. A win in their top-of-the-table clash would have put them in full control, but a draw could have also proved sufficient because of their superior goal difference.
The 2-2 draw left the title race in Arsenal’s hands, but despite having won it the previous season, they dropped points against Bolton and Leeds in their remaining four games to leave the door open for United to stroll through it.
Title winners: Manchester United
Chelsea (2nd) 2-1 Manchester United (1st), 26 April 2008
Chelsea were on an 18-match unbeaten run, three points behind Man Utd with just three games to play, though United had far the better goal difference.
The Blues put in an assured display to win and go level on points at the top of the table, only to slip up on the final day of the season, meaning United won a 10th Premier League title.
Title winners: Manchester United
Manchester United (1st) 1-2 Chelsea (2nd), 3 April 2010
Just one point separated the top two with six games to play, and Chelsea took top spot with a famous win at Old Trafford. They held on to that lead for the remainder of the season to win the title on the final day by a single point.
Title winners: Chelsea
Manchester United (1st) 2-1 Chelsea (2nd), 8 May 2011
United led the league by three points with just three games to play when second-placed Chelsea came to Old Trafford. They got their revenge for a year earlier with their own 2-1 win that set them on the way to the title.
Title winners: Manchester United
Manchester City (2nd) 1-0 Manchester United (1st), 30 April 2012
City had all the momentum going into this game, on a three-game winning run, while United had slipped up in two of their three previous games.
The hosts won through Vincent Kompany’s header to go level on points with their rivals with just two games left to play. They went on to win their first Premier League title.
Title winners: Manchester City
Liverpool (1st) 0-2 Chelsea (2nd), 27 April 2014
The only game in this list which did not feature the eventual champions, as Liverpool fell away at the top to allow Manchester City to storm through and win the title, starting with a famous Steven Gerrard slip in this game.
Few would have foreseen this result; Liverpool had won their last 11 Premier League games to charge ahead and build up a five-point lead at the top of the table with just three games to play, while Chelsea had lost at home to Sunderland the week before.
Title winners: Manchester City
Key Takeaways
- Just one of the eight games ended as a draw.
- Of the seven teams to win a top-of-the-table clash, five went on to win the title (71.4%).
- The team in second place has won more times (four) than the team in first (three). However, victorious second-placed teams have only gone on to win the title 50% of the time.
- The team in second place has won four of the last five such matches.
- Of the seven teams who came into these games with momentum on their side (at least three successive wins before this game), only two won (28.6%).
- Of the five teams who won a first-vs-second match and then went on to win the title, four had previously won the title as recently as within the last four seasons. However, the only side who hadn’t previously won the title was the most recent example – Manchester City in 2011-12.
So, there you have it: that’s what this fixture means. Manchester City and Arsenal might want to take note ahead of Sunday.
If history is anything to go by, second-placed City have the advantage. The winner of a top-of-the-table match is likely to go on and win the title, especially if they have won it recently, which City have.
The last time first faced second this late into a Premier League season, City won the game, and went on to win their first ever title. Arsenal will hope they can stop that from happening again.
The truth is, anything could happen this weekend.
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