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We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League clash at Hill Dickinson Stadium with our Everton vs Liverpool prediction and preview. Who will come out on top in the first Merseyside derby at the Toffees’ new home?
Everton vs Liverpool: The Key Stats
- The Opta supercomputer is finding this one tough to call, with Everton slight favourites with a 37.3% win probability to Liverpool’s 36.3%.
- Everton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League home games against Liverpool, though 10 of those games have finished level (L3).
- Liverpool have won their last two Premier League games against Everton, though both have come at Anfield.
Momentum is massive, and with three wins from their last five Premier League matches, Everton have it, or at least, more of it than their local rivals.
Liverpool have won just one of their last five outings in all competitions, losing the other four games by an aggregate score of 10-1. Three of those defeats came against in-form Manchester City in the FA Cup as well as the two legs of their UEFA Champions League quarter-final against reigning holders Paris Saint-German, but it has still been a chastening period for the Reds.
They did, however, win their last league outing 2-0 against Fulham last week, and form famously has a reputation of going out the window when it comes to a derby.
Often, it is the underdogs who can take confidence from that cliché, but in this case, it’s not quite clear who the underdogs are.
Everton sit eighth in the Premier League, with Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall’s 91st-minute equaliser at Brentford keeping them level on points with the Bees in an incredibly congested race for European qualification.
Liverpool’s win over Fulham, meanwhile, consolidated their place in fifth, but as mentioned, Arne Slot’s team come into this game on the back of losing to PSG in the Champions League. The Reds were largely on top at Anfield on Tuesday in a much better showing than their docile showing in Paris the previous week, but they were ultimately undone by two moments of brilliance from Ousmane Dembélé.
Their Champions League exit means Liverpool’s last chance of silverware this season has gone, and Slot’s goal now is to secure a top-five finish. Even that may not be enough for the Dutchman to keep his job, but if he is to win back any hearts and minds that have perhaps started to turn away, he could do with another positive derby result.
Liverpool are five points clear of their local rivals, but they have won just three of their last 22 away Premier League matches against teams starting the day in the top-half of the table (D10 L9), including losing six of their last seven (D1) since a 2-0 win at Manchester City in February 2025.
There is always extra pressure in a derby, for both teams, of course, but this one brings with it even more scrutiny, given Sunday’s showdown is the first clash between these teams at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
James Tarkowski’s stunning, last-gasp volley saw Everton salvage a 2-2 draw in the final Merseyside derby at Goodison Park. David Moyes’ men will be looking to get their history in this famous fixture off to a flying start at their new home.
This will be the 62nd different stadium Liverpool have played at in the Premier League. Should they win, they will become the first team to win at 60 different grounds in the competition.
If Liverpool lose, it will take them into double figures for league defeats this term. It would be the first time they have lost 10+ top-flight games since 2014-15 (12), and the most defeats suffered by a reigning Premier League champion since Leicester City lost 18 games in 2016-17.
Victory for Everton, meanwhile, would see them hit the 50-point mark in a Premier League season for the first time since 2020-21 under Carlo Ancelotti (59).
Everton have won their last two home Premier League matches and are looking to win three in a row at the Hill Dickinson for the first time in what is their 17th game there. It took them 18 matches to win three in a row at Goodison.
The Toffees’ 3-0 win over Chelsea in March was arguably their best display at their new ground, and Moyes will be looking for a repeat of that level of performance, here.
With Brentford, Fulham, Chelsea and Brighton & Hove Albion – four of the teams around them – all in action on Saturday, both teams will know the lay of the land in the European tussle by kick-off.
A top-seven finish is definitely enough to guarantee European qualification. As it stands, Everton are handed a 34.3% chance of finishing in the top seven, while Liverpool’s probability of placing in the top five is a healthy 69.1%, despite their troubles.
And though Evertonians have every reason to feel confident, it is not as though Liverpool do not possess world-class quality.
Hugo Ekitiké scored what proved to be Liverpool’s winner in the reverse fixture at Anfield back in September, but the Reds’ top scorer is now set for a lengthy spell on the sidelines due to a ruptured Achilles suffered against PSG in midweek.
That means Alexander Isak is likely to get the nod up top again having only recently recovered from a long-term injury himself. The Swede has only scored one goal in five league appearances against the Toffees, but if Liverpool’s club-record signing is to make a success of what’s left of a heavily disrupted first season at the club, a derby goal would go a long way towards that.
Then there is Mohamed Salah, who scored in the corresponding fixture last term and has netted eight times against the Toffees in the Premier League. This will be his last Merseyside derby before leaving Liverpool in the summer, so will likely want to sign off with a big performance.
Looking to supply the ammunition will be Florian Wirtz. Though at times the playmaker has underwhelmed this season, only Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes (75) has created more chances in open play in the Premier League than the German (50). Wirtz is also the first Liverpool player to create 50+ open play chances in his first league season with the club since Salah in 2017-18 (53).
Everton will look to in-form forward, Beto. He has been involved in five goals in his last five Premier League appearances (4 goals, 1 assist), with only Fernandes (7) involved in more since the start of this run on 28 February, while no player has scored more goals in that time; Beto is level with Brentford’s Igor Thiago.
Beto, too, netted in the last Goodison derby, while he scored twice against Chelsea in his last appearance at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Everton vs Liverpool Head-to-Head
Everton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League home games against Liverpool, though 10 of those games have finished level (L3). Their last victory against the Reds came in April 2024, a 2-0 win at Goodison, with Jarrad Branthwaite and Dominic Calvert-Lewin on target.
Liverpool have won their last two Premier League games against Everton, though both have come at Anfield. That included the reverse fixture back in September when goals from Ryan Gravenberch and Ekitiké sealed a 2-1 win for the Reds at Anfield, despite Idrissa Gueye pulling one back in the second half.
Liverpool last won three consecutive league Merseyside derbies between April 2016 and April 2017.
Having won six of their first 15 Premier League meetings with Liverpool between 1992 and 1999 (40% – D6 L3), Everton have won just five of their last 52 league Merseyside derbies since the start of 2000 (9.6% – D20 L27).
Everton vs Liverpool Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is finding this one extremely hard to split.
Everton have a 37.3% win probability, whereas Liverpool are handed a 36.3% likelihood of taking the points. The chance of a draw is 26.4%.
Everton vs Liverpool Predicted Lineups
Everton: Jordan Pickford, Jake O’Brien, James Tarkowski, Jarrad Branthwaite, Vitalii Mykolenko, James Garner, Idrissa Gueye, Dwight McNeil, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Iliman Ndiaye, Beto.
Head coach: David Moyes
Liverpool: Giorgi Mamardashvili, Jeremie Frimpong, Ibrahima Konaté, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez, Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai, Mohamed Salah, Florian Wirtz, Alexander Isak.
Head coach: Arne Slot
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Sunday in west London, here is the Opta Power Ranking for each side.
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