Home Premier LeagueThe 10% Club: Opta’s Best Under-the-Radar FPL Picks for Gameweek 25

The 10% Club: Opta’s Best Under-the-Radar FPL Picks for Gameweek 25

by Nicolina
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Who are the best under-the-radar players to add to your Fantasy Premier League team for Gameweek 25 of 2025-26?We assess the Opta data to reveal our top picks.

It’s been a relatively quiet week for Premier League clubs, Carabao Cup semi-finalists aside. But after this weekend, there’s a midweek round of fixtures which gives managers plenty of opportunity to cash in on the action before we break for the next round of the FA Cup.

We’ve crunched the Opta data to identify five players you need to consider transferring into your team, despite them currently being picked by fewer than 10% of FPL managers.

GK – Stefan Ortega | 4.7m | 0.2% Ownership

As you would expect from a Sean Dyche side, Nottingham Forest have done well defensively since his appointment on 21 October 2025. Only five teams have conceded fewer Premier League goals in that period, with three of them only two goals better off.

Having watched Dyche-ball in the past, you’d also assume Forest have struggled for goals on his watch, and indeed they have. But as we’re here to talk about a goalkeeper, we’ve come to the right club.

Forest have conceded just twice in their last five matches. To make that more impressive, one was an own goal from a corner, the other a penalty. They have been impregnable in open play.

That could well continue. They travel to Leeds on Friday night then host Wolves on Wednesday. While Daniel Farke’s side have been more productive at Elland Road, they still only average 1.3 goals per game this season.

The question is which shot stopper to pick. Matz Sels went off at half-time against Crystal Palace last weekend due to a groin injury. At the time of writing, it isn’t clear if he’ll be available.

As such, we’re picking former Manchester City goalkeeper Stefan Ortega, who recently joined the club. But if you have better intel when making your transfers, buy whichever Forest man is going to be between the sticks.

DEF – Malo Gusto | 4.9m | 1.9% Ownership

Another team with an inviting run of fixtures from a defensive perspective is Chelsea. You’d have said that before a home game with West Ham, though, and they were 2-0 down at half-time.

Without wishing to be too harsh on a 19-year-old defender, Jorrel Hato was no match for Jarrod Bowen in that game. He was rightly withdrawn at half-time. It’s reasonable to assume Hato won’t start again for a while if everyone is fit.

The Blues are at Wolves this weekend before hosting Leeds at Stamford Bridge. We’re mainly focussing on the immediate matchdays but a home clash with Burnley follows their FA Cup match at Hull. They really shouldn’t concede many goals in their next few games.

Our ownership rules mean we can’t select Trevoh Chalobah, Marc Cucurella or Reece James. Of all defenders in the game that are in under 10% of teams, only Daniel Muñoz (5.8 points per start), Matheus Nunes (5.5), Dan Ballard (5.4) and Josko Gvardiol (5.1) have made as many starts as Malo Gusto while averaging more points from them (4.9).

With James unavailable in midweek, Gusto played at Arsenal and could well retain his place. His top games for FPL points came against Everton (18) and Wolves (15) so he stands a good chance of doing well in the next few matches.

MID – Morgan Gibbs-White | 7.3m | 3.6% Ownership

We’ve already covered that Nottingham Forest’s forthcoming opponents are weak offensively. Those teams are unsurprisingly no great shakes at the back, either. This should help Dyche’s side improve their relatively poor scoring rate.

In Leeds and Wolves, Forest are up against two of the worst five defences in the division. In fairness to the latter, they have improved. No team has conceded fewer goals than Wolves in the last six matchdays (6). Still, you have to fancy your chances against a team with just eight points this season, especially if you’re in form yourself.

One Forest player who certainly fits that description is Morgan Gibbs-White. He has three goals and an assist across his last five league matches, only drawing a blank against league leaders Arsenal. Gibbs-White has also had four Opta-defined big chances in the last six gameweeks so is taking high-value shots in excellent locations.

Morgan Gibbs-White goal involvements - PL 2025-26

The England international scored against Forest’s next two opponents in wins last year. Dyche’s men have to take advantage of playing two of the weaker teams to stave off their relegation fears. Gibbs-White is the man to help them do it.

FWD – Valentin Castellanos | 5.5m | 0.1% Ownership

‘Regression to the mean’ is a phrase that crops up a lot when discussing expected goals. Or at least, it does if you go to all the best parties like we do. When is a player on a hot streak going to cool down? Is that forward in a cold snap about to heat up?

West Ham fans will hope new signing Valentin Castellanos can answer the second question with a resounding ‘yes’. While he found the net in the FA Cup, he has yet to get off the mark in the Premier League. The Argentinian might end his first year in England in the Championship if he doesn’t start scoring soon.

That hasn’t been for a lack of effort, though. Castellanos has had at least three shots in each of his four league appearances, with 13 of his total of 14 efforts from inside the box.

Four of his opportunities have been big chances, helping him to amass 1.65 xG. Nobody with at least as much Premier League pitch time in 2025-26 has underperformed their xG by more on a per-90 basis.

West Ham face a massive game at Burnley next, then host Manchester United. Both are in the bottom six for goals against. As much as results have improved under Michael Carrick, the Red Devils have still conceded twice in their last two games.

It is time for Castellanos to regress in a good way.

FWDThierno Barry | 5.7m | 1.3% Ownership

You want an in-form striker for your FPL team. Who doesn’t? The player with the most goals across the last six gameweeks is Brentford frontman Igor Thiago, with five. If you’ve got £7.1m in your pocket, he has been on fire.

He’s no good to us here as he’s already selected by 34.0% of managers. What we can offer you is a forward with just one fewer goal in his last six league appearances. Thierno Barry is the man, with four goals in that timeframe. He’s cheaper than Thiago and a virtual ghost in terms of being in FPL teams.

Thierno Barry xG shot map after last 6 PL Matchdays

While he has overachieved against his xG in this run, he’s only 1.19 above xG for the season which doesn’t feel unsustainable. Barry should continue to get scoring chances too.

Everton are away to Fulham this weekend. They’ve won their last two meetings, scoring five goals scored in the process, and are unbeaten in their last four matches at Craven Cottage. David Moyes’ side then host Bournemouth, who currently have the worst defensive record outside teams in the relegation zone.

The Toffees welcome Manchester United to their new home after that if you want to look even further ahead. But for now, you can be confident of Barry staying among the goals.

*FPL player values and ownership data accurate as of 4 February 2026

Premier League Stats Opta

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