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Updated ranks: QB | RB | WR| TE | DEF | K | Top 200 | Mock draft | No. 1 pick strategy
Well, it’s almost here. The moment you’ve been waiting all spring and summer for … fantasy football draft day is soon to arrive, and for the sake of this article, let's say you have the No. 2 overall pick. It’s an advantageous spot because, of course, you have your choice of all but one player in Round 1.
In other words … you're still getting a stud.
On the flip side, you’ll have a bit of a wait between your first and second picks, your third and your fourth picks and so on. Of course, you’ll also have have near back-to-back picks throughout the draft. As a result, it’s imperative to have a good strategy in mind in order to build a strong roster.
To help you draft the best possible fantasy football squad from the second overall pick, here’s a look into my head (scary, I know) and the decisions I would make in a 15-round draft. Also, I’ll give you some of the players I’d most like to target in a best-case scenario based on FootballGuys’ average draft position data, which uses cumulative ADP info from several different platforms.
For this exercise, I'm allowing myself only a five-spot differential from the actual pick number. So for the No. 23 overall pick, I can't draft anyone lower than No. 18 based on ADP. Any players above that are fair game. This is a good way to keep the results and my picks realistic.
Since all drafted are different, be sure to use my positional rankings tiers (above) to help make round-by-round decisions. That way, even if you don’t get a specific player I’ve listed below, you’ll know the alternate options who are close in value you can turn to as an “audible” selection.
Note: The first pick in each round is based on my top 200 players list.
Rounds 1 and 2
There is no consensus No. 1 overall pick, as it’s really a personal-preference decision between Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs. I have the latter ranked at No. 2, but both are home runs.
Fabs’ ideal Round 1 pick (No. 2): Jahmyr Gibbs
In Round 2, I’m taking the best running back or wide receiver on the board. Based on current ADP data, I’ll have my choice of backs such as Derrick Henry, Kenneth Walker III and Jeremiyah Love and wideouts such as Nico Collins, A.J. Brown or George Pickens. Or I could take Trey McBride or Brock Bowers if I want a top-two tight end, but I prefer to wait a few rounds before filling that position. In the end, I’m probably taking a wide receiver, in this case Collins.
Fabs' ideal Round 2 pick (No. 23): Nico Collins
Rounds 3 and 4
As I mentioned above, I’m likely going wide receiver here unless a running back falls that’s too good to pass on. Regardless, the best available players in this sort of scenario seem to be Brown, Pickens and Chris Olave, so whoever is still on the board will be the selection. I’ll go with the former.
Fabs’ ideal Round 3 pick (No. 26): A.J. Brown
The wait to pick in Round 4 is long (21 spots), with no shortage of studs flying off the board. The good news is that you have two picks in the next four (again), so you can go with a running back and a wideout in Rounds 4 and 5. The picks themselves really depend on what’s left at each position and taking the best player available. You should also look at what the team with the first overall pick has done with their first few picks and try to predict which positions he or she will target.
Fabs' ideal Round 4 pick (No. 47): Luther Burden III
Rounds 5 and 6
With a running back and three wideouts on my team, I’m next going after a No. 2 back. I might also consider Colts tight end Tyler Warren depending on what’s left among runners. Ultimately, I’m going with Quinshon Judkins if he’s available. He’s one of my favorite breakout backs, so it would be tough for me to pass on him. If Judkins were gone, I’d take Warren or Bucs RB Bucky Irving.
Fabs’ ideal Round 5 picks (No. 50): Quinshon Judkins
I currently have two running backs and three wideouts. That means I’m going with the best available player at running back or receiver in Round 6. I’ll also start to look at what’s still on the board at tight end, though I’m unlikely to take one this early unless someone has fallen to the point where I can’t resist. Based on ADP, though, this will likely be a third running back … Jaylen Warren is still available and would be a strong option.
Fabs' ideal Round 6 pick (No. 71): Jaylen Warren
Rounds 7 and 8
In the event that I didn’t take Tyler Warren in Round 5, I’m taking a hard look at tight end here. If Tucker Kraft or Harold Fannin Jr. are on the board, sign me up. Since I don’t have another pick for a while, it makes sense to grab one of those players in the seventh round.
Fabs’ ideal Round 7 picks (No. 74): Tucker Kraft or Harold Fannin Jr.
After a lengthy wait, I’m back with selection No. 95 … and I’m looking at quarterbacks. In fact, one of my next two picks will absolutely be a signal-caller, and I bet I’ll be able to land either Bo Nix or Brock Purdy (I’m guessing Trevor Lawrence is gone). I’ll be happy with the pick.
Fabs' ideal Round 8 pick (No. 95): Bo Nix
Rounds 9 and 10
Depending on what the draft board is showing me, I might go with my second quarterback here … that would be Purdy, in this case. However, I would be more inclined to go with another back or wideout if someone like Rachaad White, J.K. Dobbins or Chris Godwin Jr. were available. In this scenario, I’ll go with White. He’ll serve as the fourth fantasy runner on this team.
Fabs’ ideal Round 9 pick (No. 98): Rachaad White
I’m looking at a quarterback or a wide receiver with the next two picks. ADP data tells me I can grab Baker Mayfield or breakout candidate Tyler Shough among available field generals, but I’m probably going to take my fourth wideout here. Based on ADP data, the best options will be KC Concepcion, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Xavier Worthy. I’ll take the rookie from this trio.
Fabs' ideal Round 10 pick (No. 119): KC Concepcion
Rounds 11 and 12
I’m starting to think about grabbing Isiah Pacheco, who is the immediate backup and fantasy handcuff to Gibbs in Detroit, but I already have four running backs. As a result, I’m going to pass and instead draft my second quarterback, Kyler Murray. I love him to rebound and re-emerge into a potential top-12 fantasy quarterback in Minnesota.
Fabs’ ideal Round 11 picks (No. 122): Kyler Murray
I want to grab a fifth wide receiver at this point, so I’m looking at a potential deep sleeper who could pay off, such as Jalen McMillian, Antonio Williams or Malik Washington. I'll take Bucs receiver McMillan.
Fabs' ideal Round 12 pick (No. 143): Jalen McMillan
Round 13-plus
I need to draft a backup tight end, which I’ll do in Round 13. Juwan Johnson would likely be the best option on the board. In the final two rounds, I’m going with a kicker and defense. If I can get Brandon Aubrey in Round 14, I’m doing it, but I doubt he’ll be available. So if I like an available defense more than the best kicker available, I’ll go defense and kicker in that order.
Final Roster (13 Picks)
QBs – Bo Nix, Kyler Murray
RBs – Jahmyr Gibbs, Quinshon Judkins, Jaylen Warren, Rachaad White
WRs – Nico Collins, A.J. Brown, Luther Burden III, KC Concepcion, Jalen McMillan
TEs – Tucker Kraft or Harold Fannin Jr., Juwan Johnson
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MICHAEL FABIANO
Michael Fabiano is a fantasy football analyst for Sports Illustrated. His weekly rankings and Start 'Em, Sit 'Em articles are must-reads for fantasy players. Before joining SI in August 2020, he worked for CBS Sports, NFL Network and SiriusXM. He also contributes to Westwood One Radio and the Locked on Dynasty Podcast. Fabiano was the first fantasy analyst to appear on one of the four major TV networks and is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Fame.
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