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A pivotal meeting in the Premier League title race awaits. We look ahead to Sunday’s eye-catching clash with our Man City vs Arsenal prediction and preview.
Man City vs Arsenal: The Key Stats
- The Opta supercomputer struggled to split these two teams, with Manchester City winning 37.7% and Arsenal triumphing in 35.8% of pre-match simulations.
- April is City’s best month under Pep Guardiola in terms of points per game (2.51) and win rate (79.5%).
- Man City are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League home games against Arsenal (W7 D3).
How are your nerves, Arsenal? Mikel Arteta’s side travel to the Etihad Stadium on Sunday, knowing Manchester City are hot on their tails in another Premier League title race.
Arteta’s league leaders have a six-point advantage at the summit, and though City have a game in hand over their title rivals, a win here for Arsenal would likely end the title debate for many.
However, the opportunity is there for City after Arsenal’s unexpected 2-1 defeat at home to Bournemouth last Saturday, before Pep Guardiola’s side seized the initiative with a crucial 3-0 victory away at Chelsea the following day.
The Gunners still have an 85.9% chance of winning their first top-flight crown since 2003-04, according to Opta’s end-of-season predictions. That is far ahead of City’s 14.1% likelihood of another title, though that figure sat under 3% before last weekend’s decisive swing.
Goals from Nico O’Reilly, Marc Guéhi and Jérémy Doku sealed victory with an emphatic second-half showing from City at Stamford Bridge, and Arsenal supporters will be all too familiar with O’Reilly after his double against the Gunners in last month’s EFL Cup final.
In fact, no Man City player has scored more goals in all competitions than O’Reilly’s six since the start of February. Guardiola confirmed on Friday that he is “fine” after an injury scare last weekend.
Rayan Cherki is also continuing to deliver, having set up the first two goals against Chelsea for City’s two defenders. The France international is averaging an assist every 138 minutes in the Premier League this season (10 assists in 1,384 minutes). Of players to play 1,000+ minutes in a single campaign, only Cesc Fàbregas in 2016-17 (111) and Kevin De Bruyne in 2023-24 (123) can better that.
Concerningly for Arsenal, City always seem to find their groove at this time of year. April is their best month under Guardiola in terms of points per game (2.51) and win rate (79.5%), considering months with 10+ games played.
In stark contrast, this month is the worst for both of those metrics for Arsenal under Arteta (1.54 PPG, 42.3% win rate), and their domestic form heading into this clash may have the visiting supporters concerned.
Arsenal have lost their last three matches in domestic competition, against Man City in the EFL Cup final, Southampton in the FA Cup quarter-final, and Bournemouth in the Premier League. They last lost four consecutively in February/March 2018, and – in a bad omen – that included defeats to Guardiola’s side in the EFL Cup final and league.
The pressure does seem to be getting to Arteta’s men. Arsenal players have made 15 errors leading to a shot in their 13 Premier League games since the start of 2026, almost twice as many as they made in their 19 matches between August and December (8).
If Arsenal are to escape with anything, Arteta could look to Eberechi Eze, who has either scored (2) or assisted (1) in each of his last three appearances against Man City in all competitions. He set up Gabriel Martinelli’s 90th-minute equaliser in the reverse meeting.
But Arteta will also know that winning at the Etihad is rare. City are unbeaten in their last 14 Premier League home matches, scoring at least twice in 12 of those, since losing 2-0 against Tottenham in their first home outing this campaign.
However, stranger things have happened on the big occasion. Sunday (MD33) will be the latest that City have faced the league leaders since April 2012. They beat rivals Manchester United 1-0 at the Etihad on MD36 en route to winning their first ever Premier League title.
In terms of team news, Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol remain out for City. John Stones could be passed fit, but he is unlikely to break up the impressive pairing of Guéhi and Abdukodir Khusanov.
Mikel Merino is Arteta’s only long-term absentee, though Bukayo Saka, Jurrien Timber, Riccardo Calafiori and Martin Ødegaard all missed Wednesday’s goalless draw against Sporting CP that sent Arsenal into the Champions League semi-finals. Noni Madueke is expected to be fit despite coming off in Wednesday’s 0-0 draw with Sporting CP in the Champions League with an apparent knee issue.
Man City vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Martinelli’s late leveller cancelled out Erling Haaland’s opener in a 1-1 draw in the reverse meeting back in September, though City did beat Arsenal 2-0 in last month’s EFL Cup final.
Indeed, Arsenal are now unbeaten in their last five Premier League games against Man City (W2 D3), having lost 12 in a row against them before this.
But City have also gone undefeated in their last 10 top-flight home games against Arsenal (W7 D3), since a 2-0 loss in January 2015 under Manuel Pellegrini.
This exact fixture ended 2-2 last season, with a chaotic encounter capped off by Stones’ 98th-minute equaliser after Arsenal defended for a full half with 10 men following Leandro Trossard’s red card for two cautions.
Man City vs Arsenal Prediction
The Opta supercomputer understandably saw this as a tough one to call, though Manchester City came out as narrow favourites by winning 37.7% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Arsenal still have a 35.8% chance of victory that would effectively seal the title, while the draw – which would also largely benefit the Gunners – came in at 26.4%.
Man City vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matheus Nunes, Abdukodir Khusanov, Marc Guéhi, Nico O’Reilly, Rodri, Bernardo Silva, Antoine Semenyo, Rayan Cherki, Jérémy Doku, Erling Haaland.
Head coach: Pep Guardiola
Arsenal: David Raya, Ben White, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Martin Lewis-Skelly, Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Kai Havertz, Noni Madueke, Gabriel Martinelli, Viktor Gyökeres.
Head coach: Mikel Arteta
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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