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TEMPE, Ariz. — One of the biggest questions heading into the first round of this NFL draft is whether the Arizona Cardinals will draft former Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson — and, if so, when.
If the Cardinals take Simpson at some point Thursday or Friday, the next question will become: Will the Cardinals will play him right away?
That answer is just as complicated as whether Arizona will draft Simpson.
New Cardinals coach Mike LaFleur made it clear during his pre-draft news conference that he'd be open to not starting a young quarterback right away while he learned behind veteran quarterbacks.
However, it's not as cut-and-dried as simply drafting a quarterback and sitting him.
"I mean, I think there's something to be said about that," LaFleur said about sitting a quarterback for a year. "It seems like there's no factual statement with what I'm about to say, but the college game and the pro game are just so different. And then where did that college player play? Was the competition as high as it was at School A compared to School B?
"And, so, there's so many factors in there. Ultimately, you're going to play the best player that you think is going to give you the best chance to win, period."
If Simpson were to come in and instantly be better than both quarterbacks on the roster, Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew II, he’d likely play. But, LaFleur said if the rookie and vets are at the same level, then he’d rather the rookie sit and learn.
"If all things are equal, then yeah, you'd rather have that veteran kind of show that guy," LaFleur said. "But, again, if we all believe as an organization that the young guy is going to give you the best chance during that 60-minute game to win, then you're going to throw him out there."
There isn't a lot of precedence for rookie quarterbacks sitting during their first season over the last 20 seasons, and there could be two this year. The Las Vegas Raiders signed Kirk Cousins this offseason and are presumably picking Indiana’s national championship-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick.
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Of the 61 quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 2006, only two — Jordan Love in 2020 and J.J. McCarthy in 2024 — did not play in their rookie seasons, according to ESPN Research. Love didn’t because he sat behind Aaron Rodgers, and McCarthy didn’t because he was injured. However, of the other 59, only two — Brady Quinn in 2007 and Jake Locker in 2011 — didn’t start at least one game.
Of the 57 first-round quarterbacks since 2006 who started games their rookie season, seven started fewer than five — JaMarcus Russell, Johnny Manziel, Paxton Lynch, Patrick Mahomes, Anthony Richardson Sr, Michael Penix Jr. and Trey Lance.
That leaves 50 of the 61 quarterbacks who went off the board in the first round in the last 20 drafts were thrown into the mix in their first season.
Some around the league believe No. 3, where the Cardinals currently sit, is too high for Arizona to draft Simpson, who started just 15 games at Alabama. Others believe the Cardinals may trade down or back into the first round to grab Simpson, with whom Arizona has been impressed for months. A source first told ESPN in December that the Cardinals liked Simpson.
When Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort evaluates quarterbacks, he said two of the most important traits he looks for are accuracy and decision making.
Simpson's accuracy and decision-making fluctuated last season.
His numbers dipped in the second half of the season, going from an 82 Total QBR, 21-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 67% completion percentage in the first nine games to a 64 Total QBR, 7-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 60% in his last six games.
And Simpson's six fumbles lost last season were the most by any player in the Football Bowl Subdivision in 2025. He also had at least one turnover in nine of his last 11 games. Simpson took 28 sacks last season, which was tied for 115th most in FBS.
Simpson had a catchable pass percentage last season of 78.9, and 11.2% of his passes were off target. His time to target average was 2.9 seconds in 2025, which was ranked 110th.
"It's up to us to really look at those guys and project how they're going to translate to our league," Ossenfort said. "And, so, every year's different, and we certainly did our share of evaluation on the quarterbacks in this year's draft."
Simpson's experience has been a topic leading into the draft, as well.
He started one season for Alabama, tallying just 15 starts, which would be the fourth-fewest starts by a first-round pick in the last 25 seasons.
"I think with that, you got to look at the reasons for that," Ossenfort said. "And, I think, hey, listen, there's advantages to time on task. There is. There really is. And so I think you got to look at why. Why is there not as big of a body of work? And then ultimately you're going to evaluate the tape.
"Some guys are going to have more. Some guys' tape looks better than others. So, I think that's just another piece of that evaluation process. So, I think you just got to go with what you have. And with some guys, there's less and some guys there's more and just figuring out why exactly that is."
But, Ossenfort said, trying to determine if a player — regardless of how many starts they have – will be a good fit for a team, for an offense and for a locker room, is an art.
"When we're scouting free agency, you're scouting apples to apples," Ossenfort said. "And, so, you're watching guys play against NFL players. I think the art of college scouting is you're taking guys from different levels of competition, coming from different schemes, coming from a different field. A lot of things are different from college and now you're trying to project how that is going to look, not only for our scheme, like you're referring to, and how Mike wants to run things and how he wants things to run, but now you're saying, 'How's that going to work in a different game, the college game to the NFL game?'
"So, that's always been a challenge of college scouting. That's why every draft pick doesn't always pan out and that's why there's a challenge to that."
