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West Ham have to win on Sunday to have any chance of Premier League survival. Look ahead to their game at the London Stadium with our West Ham vs Leeds United prediction and preview.
West Ham vs Leeds: The Key Stats
- The Opta supercomputer has West Ham as favourites, giving them a win probability of 52.4% to Leeds’ 24.2%.
- But West Ham have lost each of their last three Premier League games, last losing four in a row in December 2022.
- Leeds have lost their final Premier League match in just two of their 15 campaigns in the competition.
West Ham are in the last-chance saloon as they look to secure Premier League survival in a must-win finale against Leeds United at the London Stadium on Sunday.
The Hammers are two points adrift of relegation rivals Tottenham and have a vastly inferior goal difference, so realistically, only victory against Leeds and defeat for Spurs at home to Everton can save Nuno Espírito Santo’s side.
Their form heading into the game does not inspire great confidence that they can pull off the great escape, with West Ham losing three straight Premier League games. They last lost four in a row back in December 2022 – a stretch of five under David Moyes.
If they do fail to win, it would mark their third relegation from the Premier League, after 2002-03 and 2010-11.
One glimmer of hope for West Ham fans is the fact they have a decent record in recent history when it comes to playing their final league match at home. They have lost just one of their last 19 such matches, going down 3-0 against Sunderland in 2010-11 when they were already relegated. They have won 11 of those games.
Jarrod Bowen is likely to be influential if they are to pull off a famous escape. The Hammers captain has assisted eight of their last 12 Premier League goals. He has 10 in the competition this term, with only three West Ham players registering more in a campaign – Paolo Di Canio in 1999-00 (13), Dimitri Payet in 2015-16 (12) and Eyal Berkovic in 1998-99 (11). Bowen may also feel he has a point to prove after being left out of the England squad for the World Cup.
Leeds – who were victorious on penalties in the FA Cup quarter-finals at West Ham earlier this season – have little riding on this game, but are in good form as they prepare to make the trip to the capital.
Daniel Farke’s side are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League games (W4, D4), their longest run since a 13-game streak between May and November 2001. The last time they remained unbeaten in their final nine-plus games of a Premier League campaign was in 1994-95 (final nine).
Moreover, against no side have Leeds won more Premier League away games than their seven against West Ham, albeit they did lose 3-1 on their last league visit to the London Stadium in May 2023.
They have lost their final Premier League match in just two of their 15 campaigns in the competition (W6, D7), with both of those defeats coming in seasons in which they were relegated (1-0 vs Chelsea in 2003-04, 4-1 vs Spurs in 2022-23).
Noah Okafor is one of several injury doubts for Leeds, with Jayden Bogle, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Brenden Aaronson, and Facundo Buonanotte all uncertain. Ilia Gruev, Pascal Struijk, and Anton Stach are all out.
Adama Traore has missed West Ham’s last two games and remains a major doubt for this clash.
West Ham vs Leeds Head-to-Head
West Ham were 3-1 victors over Leeds the last time the Whites visited the London Stadium in May 2023. Consequently, the Hammers are looking to win consecutive home league games against Leeds for the first time since 1974.
Leeds triumphed 2-1 over the Irons at Elland Road in October, though.
They are now looking to complete the Premier League double over West Ham for the first time since 2002-03, when the Hammers were relegated with a 38-game competition record 42 points.
West Ham vs Leeds Prediction
West Ham know that only a victory can give them a chance of survival, and the Opta supercomputer makes them the favourites with a win percentage of 52.4%.
Leeds, by contrast, have a 24.2% win probability, with the draw rated as a 23.4% chance.
However, the bad news for West Ham is that they have an 86.3% likelihood of finishing 18th after the culmination of Sunday’s finale, with only a 13.7% chance of surviving in 17th.
West Ham United vs Leeds United Predicted Lineups
West Ham: Alphonse Areola, El Hadji Malick Diouf, Axel Disasi, Konstantinos Mavropanos, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Freddie Potts, Sikou Magassa, Mateus Fernandes, Crysencio Summerville, Jarrod Bowen, Valentín Castellanos.
Head coach: Nuno Espírito Santo
Leeds United: Karl Darlow, James Justin, Jaka Bijol, Joe Rodon, Sebastiaan Bornauw, Ao Tanaka, Ethan Ampadu, Sean Longstaff, Willy Gnonto, Daniel James, Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
Head coach: Daniel Farke
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this Sunday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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