Table of Contents
Open Extended Reactions
Just like that, we're halfway through the UFL regular season. There are no undefeated or winless teams left, with two teams having each unique record from 4-1 to 1-4.
Four of the eight UFL teams will reach the postseason, so you feel good about the chances of the 4-1 teams … not so much the 1-4 teams. I can't see into the future, despite accusations of clairvoyance, but I do have a special advanced analytical apparatus for this purpose.
Enter, the Magic 8-Ball!
I'll give my own power rankings based on a collection of impactful metrics to rank teams by their performance, and then I'll ask Mr. Ball to give each team's playoff chances at this point in the season.
Jump to a team:
BIR | CLB | DAL | DC
HOU | LOU | ORL | SL
1. DC Defenders (4-1) | Previous: 2
What we've learned: The Defenders have rebounded from a season-opening loss with four straight wins, three of those by 17 or more points. The defending champs lead the UFL with 34.4 points per game and a +14.6 scoring differential per game.
Magic 8-Ball's Playoff Outlook: It Is Decidedly So
With three of their final five games at home, starting with a matchup against a Renegades team coming off its worst game of the season, they might have a spot locked up with multiple weeks to go in the season.
St. Louis BattleHawks vs. D.C. Defenders: Game Highlights
St. Louis BattleHawks vs. D.C. Defenders: Game Highlights
2. Orlando Storm (4-1) | Previous: 3
What we've learned: After a 4-0 start, the Storm got their first blemish of the season in Week 5, but there’s no shame in losing to the Battlehawks, even at home. What is slightly concerning is the drop-off in play from QB Jack Plummer, who averaged a UFL-best 8.6 yards per pass attempt in his first 3 games, but dropped to 6.7 in Week 4 and 3.3 last week.
Magic 8-Ball's Playoff Outlook: Good
Despite the 4-1 record, our 8 Ball is not willing to chisel this in stone yet. Orlando's final three games are against the Renegades and the Defenders (twice), so they can't afford a slip-up in their next two games, against the Stallions and Gamblers.
Orlando Storm vs. Birmingham Stallions: Game Highlights
Orlando Storm vs. Birmingham Stallions: Game Highlights
3. Dallas Renegades (3-2) | Previous: 1
What we've learned: Somebody flipped on the A/C in Dallas because the Renegades have cooled off. After winning their first two games by double digits, they won by five points to move to 3-0. The momentum was killed with 14- and 22-point losses in the last two games, culminating with QB Austin Reed’s four-pick (two returned for touchdowns) game against Louisville.
Magic 8-Ball's Playoff Outlook: Ask Again Later
Five of their final six games are on the road, with their home game a test against Orlando. A Week 6 loss to the Defenders on the road is not a killer, but it would necessitate a road win in Birmingham and/or Louisville.
4. Louisville Kings (2-3) | Previous: 6
What we've learned: This team is trending the other way. After an 0-3 start, Louisville has won back-to-back games and finds itself a game back of a playoff spot. Since the 0-3 start, the Kings have traded their starting quarterback and cut their leading rusher and two offensive linemen and appear to have found a winning formula.
Magic 8-Ball's Playoff Outlook: Hazy, Try Again
This is a team playing much better. The schedule also gets very tough — the next three matchups are against the Battlehawks and two against the Defenders. The question then becomes how many will it take to get into the postseason? Five? They've got a shot. Six? Might be asking too much with this schedule.
Louisville Kings vs. Houston Gamblers: Game Highlights
Louisville Kings vs. Houston Gamblers: Game Highlights
5. St. Louis Battlehawks (3-2) | Previous: 4
What we've learned: In an odd quirk, the Battlehawks have been betting underdogs in all five games this season, despite their winning record. St. Louis ranks poorly in some key stats this season among the eight UFL teams, including last in yards per play, sixth in red zone touchdown percentage and seventh in third-down conversion percentage.
Magic 8-Ball's Playoff Outlook: Signs Point To It
Despite being fifth in the playoff rankings, the 8-Ball is more bullish on their playoff hopes. If Harrison Frost continues to develop as a quarterback (or the Spring King, Luis Perez, takes over), the schedule is favorable down the stretch. Three of their final four games are at home, and four of the five are against teams currently with losing records.
6. Birmingham Stallions (1-4) | Previous: 5
What we've learned: I trust the stats, but sixth might seem too high, despite Birmingham’s position as the premier franchise of spring football. After squeaking out a two-point win in Week 1, the Stallions’ scoring differential has gotten worse in each game since (losses by two, four, 16 and 17). They scored 28 points in their first game with Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the starting QB but gave up 45 to the Defenders.
Magic 8-Ball's Playoff Outlook: Not So Good
The Stallions' history is impressive, but that's prior to 2025, and this is a different Birmingham team. The offense came to life last week, but the defense and special teams did not. However, the pedigree is still there, and the Stallions will finish their season with back-to-back games with the Aviators and a home game against the Gamblers (but they have already lost to those Gamblers once this season).
7. Columbus Aviators (1-4) | Previous: 7
What we've learned: It might be controversial to put Columbus one spot ahead of Houston (spoiler alert!) despite the Gamblers having a better record and coming off a head-to-head win last week. But three of the Aviators’ losses are by seven or fewer points and on the road. Plus, they have some stats that indicate they’ve gotten unlucky, ranking second in red zone touchdown percentage and third in third down conversion percentage.
Magic 8-Ball's Playoff Outlook: Don’t Count On It
Even though this team has put up some solid numbers, the Magic One doubts this team can finish with four wins in its final five games to make a playoff run — and that's assuming a 5-5 team gets into the playoffs. A Week 7 game in St. Louis might be the make-or-break game. But it's not ruling out a run.
8. Houston Gamblers (2-3) | Previous: 8
What we've learned: I gave this one away in the last section, but Houston’s two wins this season are by a combined six points. Their three losses are by a combined 59 points. That’s telling. The stats in which Columbus ranks in the top three — red zone TD percentage and third-down percentage — Houston is last in both.
Magic 8-Ball's Playoff Outlook: My Sources Say No
Let's say it takes a minimum of five, but probably six wins to get into the playoffs. Their only remaining home games are against the Battlehawks and Storm, both teams looking to make the playoffs. There are too many stats pointing against them being able to make a run. But be there in Week 9 for Jim Kelly Bobblehead Day at Shell Energy Stadium.
