Table of Contents
Two down, one to go.
Burnley's loss to Manchester City meant they joined Wolves in having their relegation from the Premier League confirmed.
For the past couple of weeks, it has looked like being four teams – Leeds, Nottingham Forest, West Ham and Tottenham – scrapping it out to avoid the remaining spot in the drop zone.
But, following Sean Longstaff’s dramatic late equaliser at Bournemouth, Leeds have taken seven points from three games to reach the magical 40-point mark, and many will be starting to exclude them from any relegation conversations.
"I am experienced long enough in this world, we will celebrate when it's mathematically done. It's too early," Leeds boss Daniel Farke told BBC Match of the Day.
"We are on 40 points, seven games unbeaten in all competitions, so I am confident. Why should we lose the last four games?"
Victory over Championship-bound Burnley at Elland Road might be enough to make Leeds mathematically safe.
Until then, there is still work to do before Farke will let himself celebrate and – certainly for the other three sides in the mix – it could go down to the wire…
- Why Wolves’ relegation had been coming after slow decline
- Can relegated Burnley stop yo-yo effect – and do they want to?
Spurs more likely to go down than not – Opta
Big celebrations after a 97th-minute equaliser are usually to be expected but, for the Leeds players at the Vitality Stadium, it was about more than just the point.
That draw takes them nine points clear of Tottenham in 18th and, with so few games remaining, that gap will almost certainly be enough to keep them in the top flight.
According the Opta Supercomputer, the chances of Farke's side being relegated from this position are a mere 0.21%.
Still mathematically possible, as the Leeds manager said, but barring the most remarkable turn of events the Whites have done enough.
It is good news, too, for Forest. Following their win over Burnley at the weekend, Opta gives them just a 4.27% chance of being relegated.
As far as the supercomputer is concerned then, it is between West Ham and Tottenham for that unwanted 18th place.
The Hammers are given a 38.58% of ending the season in the bottom three, while it is seen as more likely than not that Spurs will go down for the first time since 1977.
Roberto de Zerbi's side are the 56.93% favourites to be relegated from here.
What does the form suggest?
Tottenham boss De Zerbi was bullish about his side's chances of staying up after Saturday's draw with Brighton, claiming they are "able to win five games in a row" to end the season.
But for all De Zerbi's faith in his players' capabilities, the evidence of this season does not suggest a team capable of such a feat.
Spurs have not won any of their past 15 league games, meaning they are without a top-flight victory in 2026 and have managed only two since 26 October.
They must beat bottom side Wolves on Saturday to avoid equalling the club's worst winless league run – set some 91 years ago, between 1934 and 1935.
By contrast, the form of Spurs' relegation rivals has been picking up.
Nottingham Forest have two wins in their past three games and are unbeaten in five, and West Ham have won two of their past five.
Zoom out a little further and the Hammers have taken 19 pointsfrom their past 12 games, Forest have 18 from their past 13 and for Leeds it is 19 from 15.
Since beating Crystal Palace on 28 December, Spurs have taken six points from 15 matches.
The run-in
Every year when the fixtures are announced you hear the familiar refrain that "it doesn't matter, you play everyone twice".
But there is no doubt that when you face a certain team can make a big difference across a 10-month campaign.
With five games remaining Spurs will definitely think their run-in, at least on paper, gives them every chance of staying up.
Next up is a trip to Wolves, whose relegation to the Championship was confirmed on Monday.
A home match against Leeds on 11 May is another Tottenham will view as an opportunity, especially if Farke's side have ensured their safety by then.
Even a tricky-looking match at Champions League-chasing Aston Villa on 3 May comes at a good time for Spurs, as it falls between the two legs of the Europa League semi-final for Unai Emery's men.
A visit to rivals Chelsea before hosting Everton on the final day is not a straightforward way to finish, given both teams seem likely to be fighting for European places.
But, given how tight things are, that is something all the relegation candidates will have to deal with.
West Ham host Everton on Saturday before an away game at Brentford – and it only gets tougher with title-chasing Arsenal the visitors to London Stadium on 10 May.
Even with Newcastle enduring a disappointing season, an away game at St James' Park on the penultimate weekend is far from simple and there could be plenty riding on the home match against Leeds on the last day.
Forest arguably face the toughest last five with away games at Chelsea and Manchester United in May – the former coming just three days before the second leg of the Reds' Europa League semi-final against Villa.
Home games against Newcastle and Bournemouth, on the last day, could be crucial but getting a result at Sunderland on Friday would help alleviate a lot of stress for Vitor Pereira's side before the remainder of the run-in.
- Wild celebrations to verge of tears – time running out for Spurs
What do the stats say?
It is 49 years since Spurs found themselves in the relegation zone after 33 league games and, in that 1976-77 season, they were unable to save themselves.
Given only Sheffield Wednesday, already relegated from the Championship, have a worse home record than Spurs' two wins in England's top four tiers this term, significant improvements will be required.
The numbers don't get any more encouraging for De Zerbi's side with only Derby (18) in 2007-08 and Sunderland (17) in 2002-03 having longer winless runs to start a calendar year than Spurs' current streak of 15 – and both were relegated in those years.
Forest can take some comfort from the fact 36 points has been enough to survive in every Premier League season since 2015-16.
Even more encouragingly for the Whites, only six teams have been relegated with 39 points or more in a 38-game season and not in the past 14 seasons – since Birmingham and Blackpool both went down on 39 points.
This year might be one in which the traditional claim of 40 points being required for safety proves true, but West Ham know that sometimes even that is not enough.
The Hammers hold the unwanted record of the most points achieved by a relegated side – the 42 they mustered in 2002-03 was not enough to spare them from the drop.
No wonder Farke and Leeds are taken nothing for granted just yet.
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