Table of Contents
Super Bowl road maps: Jaguars| Bears| Browns | Dolphins | Packers | Lions
Welcome to Super Bowl LXI road maps, where we look at every team’s chances of winning it all in 2026. We’ll analyze the summer optimism before providing a reality check of what’s to come. Next path to assess: the Texans.
It was the year of the defense in 2025, but having the best defense didn’t take the Texans to the Super Bowl.
Houston found out the hard way that even special defenses need efficient offenses—or at least a quarterback who can protect the ball. Drake Maye had a rough divisional round performance against the Texans, but his Patriots won the clash because he only threw one interception compared to four from C.J. Stroud. The Seahawks, who were armed with a strong defense and a strong offense, pummeled the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
If Stroud can protect the ball better, the Texans can certainly win it all behind a dominant defense that could be better in 2026. Will Anderson Jr., Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, Calen Bullock and second-round rookie Kayden McDonald are all 24 or younger. Jalen Pitre and Azeez Al-Shaair are in their late 20s and coming off strong seasons. Danielle Hunter is the lone core defensive player on the wrong side of 30, but the star edge rusher continues to be a force on the field, which is why the team keeps giving him lucrative one-year extensions, most recently a one-year, $40 million deal that has the 31-year-old tied to the organization through the 2027 season.
However, Houston doesn’t want Stroud to do the bare minimum and play the role of Trent Dilfer for what could be a legendary defense in Houston. (Dilfer didn’t screw things up for the 2000 Ravens that won it all.) Also, Stroud, the 2023 No. 2 pick, can’t afford to just play it safe while he seeks a lucrative contract extension from the team. He needs to be a difference-maker and show that he can again be the quarterback who won Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Stroud’s play has declined the past two seasons, but he’s had poor offensive lines, stagnant rushing attacks and questionable play calls from offensive coordinators. Still, the excuses are running low, especially with the moves the team made to repair the offensive line this offseason. Houston signed right tackle Braden Smith and guard Wyatt Teller, and used a first-round pick on Keylan Rutledge, who could start his career at center. The team also re-signed right guard Ed Ingram to a three-year, $37.5 million deal. In last year’s draft, the Texans used their first three picks on promising left tackle Aireontae Ersery and wide receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.
It’s now or never for Stroud to maximize playing with a vaunted defense and possibly cash in at the end of the season.
Leadership
Despite the uneven performances, Stroud has the support of GM Nick Caserio, who told reporters at the scouting combine in February that it would be moronic to trade Stroud.
Caserio also had strong comments for the trade rumors involving star receiver Nico Collins, saying in April, “Whoever reported it or whatever information that they had, they can take it and shove it.” Caserio backed up those words by recently giving Collins a reworked deal with a sizable pay raise.
Clearly, getting public support from Caserio is a good sign for Stroud, but based on recent extensions for young quarterbacks, if a player doesn’t see a new deal after Year 3, that usually means the organization wants to see more before committing. Stroud told reporters this offseason that he feels he’s done enough for a new deal—he’s guided the team to three consecutive trips to the divisional round.
It wouldn’t be a surprise if he gets a deal done before the season opener, but if Stroud is forced to prove himself in Year 4, he’ll likely benefit from not having to learn a new playbook this summer. Nick Caley is back for his second season as DeMeco Ryans’s offensive coordinator, and he should be better after showing his inexperience at times last season as a rookie play-caller. Ryans is heading into his fourth season as head coach in Houston.
Not only does Caley have to get Stroud back on track, he needs to incorporate newcomer veteran running back David Montgomery into the flow of the offense, get more results from Higgins and Noel in Year 2, and figure out the right combination for the new-look offensive line. Caley needs to get this all sorted out to make sure the team takes full advantage of having a special defense.
Most influential roster move
Caserio didn’t waste time locking down Anderson with a massive three-year, $150 million contract extension that made him the highest-paid nonquarterback in the league.
The fortunes of the franchise quickly changed after the Texans drafted Stroud and Anderson Nos. 2 and 3, respectively, in the 2023 draft. Both players captured rookie of the year honors, but Anderson is the one who hasn’t stopped ascending. His elite strength and high pressure rate has made him a weekly nightmare for opposing offensive lines, leading to favorable matchups for Hunter, who has racked up 27 sacks in two seasons since teaming with Anderson.
Anderson’s disruptive presence has helped the rest of Ryans’s defense, especially with allowing the secondary to be aggressive in coverage. It was a no-brainer for the Texans to hand Anderson a new deal after three dominant seasons to start his career, which includes first-team All-Pro honors in 2025. Also, it was wise of the star edge rusher to sign a short-term contract, possibly setting himself up for another record-setting deal in two or three years.
Why this offseason move will (or won’t) work
The last time the Texans traded for a veteran running back to lead their backfield, they received 1,016 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns from Joe Mixon in 2024.
However, Mixon wasn’t around last year due to a foot injury that wiped out his entire 2025 season and he was cut ahead of his age-30 season.
At 29, Montgomery is only one year younger than Mixon, but he’s been durable throughout his career and played in every game for the Lions last season. He also might have fresher legs after seeing limited snaps behind Jahmyr Gibbs the past three seasons. (He only played 37% of Detroit’s offensive snaps last season.) In March, the Lions sent Montgomery to Houston in exchange for offensive lineman Juice Scruggs, a 2026 fourth-rounder and a ’27 seventh-rounder.
Montgomery, who last rushed for 1,000 yards in 2023, will now be the clear No. 1 option in Houston’s backfield, but the team is playing with fire again by not adding a reliable younger option after what happened last season with Mixon. Perhaps Woody Marks will show more consistency after a rocky rookie season, and Jawhar Jordan also showed some upside toward the end of ’25.
Breakout player candidate: Jayden Higgins, WR
Higgins, the 2025 second-round pick, showed upside of one day being a dominant perimeter receiver. He has reliable hands and the size (6'4" and 215 pounds) to come down with contested catches.
While at Iowa State, Higgins also showed he can make plays from the inside, but his route tree needs work, which could explain why he had too many quiet stretches last season, recording only 41 catches for 525 yards and six touchdowns. Luckily for Higgins, he gets to learn on the daily from Collins, a versatile receiver who knows how to get open from anywhere on the field.
It would go a long way if Higgins makes the leap this season, considering that Collins has had trouble staying healthy in his career. Collins missed two regular-season games and was unavailable for the divisional round loss against the Patriots.
Missing piece
In a perfect world, Stroud returns to his rookie form, Collins plays in every game, Tank Dell makes an impact after missing all of 2025 and the moves made on the offensive line pan out.
The pieces are all there for the Texans to become a scary team this season, but they need to have backup plans with how inconsistent the offense has been the past two years.
If injuries occur at wide receiver and/or Higgins and Noel don’t take steps forward, Caserio should be prepared to make a notable trade for a skill player, maybe even adding another running back to assist Montgomery in the backfield.
At the moment, the Texas are in wait-and-see mode with the offense, but more moves might be needed before the trade deadline to ensure they don’t waste another elite season from the defense.
Realistic outlook
Just by having a young defense that ranked first in total yards (277.2 per game) and second in points allowed (17.4 per game) last season, the Texans are a threat to win Super Bowl LXI in Los Angeles.
But they could again max out in the divisional round due to their suspect offense. Touchdowns will be needed to possibly get by the Bills, Ravens, Patriots and Chiefs in the AFC. Over in the NFC, the Rams and Seahawks know how to score in a hurry to go along with their dominant defenses.
Houston won’t be taken seriously until it has a complete team.
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GILBERTO MANZANO
Gilberto Manzano is a staff writer covering the NFL for Sports Illustrated. After starting off as a breaking news writer at NFL.com in 2014, he worked as the Raiders beat reporter for the Las Vegas Review-Journal and covered the Chargers and Rams for the Orange County Register and Los Angeles Daily News. During his time as a combat sports reporter, he was awarded best sports spot story of 2018 by the Nevada Press Association for his coverage of the Conor McGregor-Khabib Nurmagomedov post-fight brawl. Manzano, a first-generation Mexican-American with parents from Nayarit, Mexico, is the cohost of Compas on the Beat, a sports and culture show featuring Mexican-American journalists. He has been a member of the Pro Football Writers of America since 2017.
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