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There is no American professional sports league in which it is more common for teams to go from last place in their division to first the following season than the NFL. The NFL consistently sees at least four new teams make the playoffs every season, including those that were in the cellar of their division the previous year. In 2025, the Patriots and Bears both went from last place to division champions and playoff teams.
Eight NFL teams finished the 2025 season in last place in their division. Could any of them leap into first in 2026?
Ahead of the 2026 season, it’s time to rank all eight of this year’s crop of worst-to-first candidates based on how likely they are to win their division. But first, here’s a look at just how common it is for teams to go from worst-to-first.
How often do teams go from worst to first?
Since the NFL divisions realigned to the league’s current format in 2002, a total of 27 teams have gone from worst-to-first the following season. It doesn’t happen every year—no team went worst-to-first in 2002, 2014, 2019, or 2024—but typically, one or two teams rise from the cellar of their division to first place every year.
Two teams have even gone worst in their division to winning the Super Bowl in this span—the 2009 Saints and 2017 Eagles. The 2003 Panthers, 2021 Bengals and 2025 Patriots all made the Super Bowl after finishing last in their division the prior season, but lost the big game.
Now, onto the rankings:
8. Arizona Cardinals
2025 record: 3–14
Last division title: 2015
Two words: NFC West.
The Cardinals are among the teams with the highest odds to land the No. 1 pick in the draft next year and the lowest to win the Super Bowl. They have yet to find their franchise quarterback, and while they have some talented players on the roster, they are not expected to contend at this time.
Even if the Cardinals exceed expectations in 2026, it’s unlikely they’ll beat out the Seahawks, Rams and 49ers for the division title—three teams that won at least 12 games and at least one playoff game in 2025. The Cardinals play in the toughest division in football, and that should keep them well out of the division race for now.
7. New York Jets
2025 record: 3–14
Last division title: 2002
The Jets hold the longest playoff drought in the NFL, and they have to prove they are capable of making the playoffs again before they are predicted to do so. They haven’t made the postseason since 2010, and frankly aren’t close to doing so anytime soon after finishing 3–14 last season.
Beyond the Jets’ own woes and dysfunction over the past 15 years, it doesn’t help that they share a division with the Bills and Patriots. Either the Bills and Patriots have won the AFC East in each of the past 17 seasons, and with both teams coming off playoff appearances, it doesn’t appear they’ll be handing over the division crown to the Jets anytime soon.
6. Las Vegas Raiders
2025 record: 3–14
Last division title: 2002
The Raiders are trending in the right direction after hiring Klint Kubiak, bolstering the roster in free agency and drafting quarterback Fernando Mendoza, but they are likely at least a year or two away from contending, particularly for the division title. Mendoza is still developing, and the Raiders are planning to start Kirk Cousins in 2026.
Additionally, the Raiders play in one of the NFL’s tougher divisions. The Broncos and Chargers have each made the postseason in two consecutive seasons and while the Chiefs didn’t do so, they have made five Super Bowls in the past seven years. Patrick Mahomes and Co. can absolutely never be counted out.
Also working against the Raiders is the fact that they finished with the No. 1 pick, which historically has been difficult to rebound from the next season. Seven of the past 10 teams to pick first in the draft finished fourth in their division the following year. Since the divisions realigned to their current configuration in 2002, just three teams have won their division after picking first—the 2004 Chargers (who already had an experienced quarterback in Drew Brees), the 2008 Dolphins (the year Tom Brady was injured), and 2022 Jaguars (won the weak AFC South with a 9-8 record and had the No. 1 pick for the second consecutive year). The 2012 Colts and 2013 Chiefs made the playoffs after finishing with the No. 1 pick, but winning the division is a separate challenge.
5. Cleveland Browns
2025 record: 5–12
Last division title: 1989 (AFC Central)
The only reason the Browns rank this high is because there is greater uncertainty in the AFC North than other divisions. The Steelers won the division last season, but underwent a massive change this offseason with Mike Tomlin stepping down from coaching. The Browns rightfully still have by far the worst odds to claim the division, but with the Ravens and Bengals—the two favorites to win the division—coming off seasons in which they didn’t make the playoffs, there’s more room for Cleveland to rise in this division.
Of course, it would be very difficult for the Browns to win their division for the first time in well over 30 years, especially after the departures of Jim Schwartz and Myles Garrett. There was a small path to imagine in which the Browns could rely on a stout defense that carried an offense featuring an improved offensive line and receiving core, but that is no longer there.
4. Tennessee Titans
2025 record: 3–14
Last division title: 2021
It’s easy to imagine the Titans improving off two consecutive three-win seasons, but it’s difficult to see them snatching the division at this point. Cam Ward still has a long way to go in his development, and while that doesn’t necessarily stop teams from contending, there are still a lot of unproven elements on this Titans team.
The Titans rank in the top four on this list because they are a part of an AFC South division that historically has been weaker. With the Jaguars, Texans and even Colts contending for a playoff berth last season, however, it might be harder than ever for the Titans to make the jump.
3. New York Giants
2025 record: 4–13
Last division title: 2011
The Giants have sunk to one of the NFL’s lowly franchises since bringing home their fourth Lombardi Trophy 15 years ago, but they have real reason for optimism heading into this season after hiring John Harbaugh. While there are questions about the team’s receiving core, particularly Malik Nabers’s injury status, there is also plenty for New York to feel excited about from Jaxson Dart and Abdul Carter entering their second seasons, the addition of two top-10 picks to an electric pass rush.
What also works in the Giants’ favor is the NFC East consistently has had different division champions. Until the Eagles won the division last season, no team had won the division in two consecutive seasons in 20 years. The Eagles, Commanders and Cowboys will still provide tough competition, but it certainly would be far from unprecedented for the Giants to make the leap—particularly in this division.
2. New Orleans Saints
2025 record: 6–11
Last division title: 2020
Two words: NFC South.
The Saints haven’t made the postseason since Drew Brees retired, but they appear ready to potentially end their five-year drought. Unlike the other teams on this list, the Saints have the advantage of playing in the easiest division in the league. In three of the last four years, the NFC South champion won the division without winning 10 games. Last season, the Panthers won the division with a losing 8–9 record.
While this hasn’t helped them make the playoffs over the past five years, it could pay off this year as coach Kellen Moore and quarterback Tyler Shough enter their second season together. A quarterback in his second year is particularly a strong formula for a team to go from worst-to-first, and Shough played well when he was thrust in the role as a rookie. With another year in the offense, he could be ready to lead them back to the top of this underwhelming division.
1. Detroit Lions
2025 record: 9-8
Last division win: 2024
The Lions are the most obvious candidate to go from worst to first. The Lions are the lone team on this list to finish 2025 with a winning record. They’ve also won their division most recently, having been crowned NFC North champions in both 2023 and 2024. Detroit still has a roster with an abundance of talent, from playmakers such as Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown to star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson.
The biggest challenge for the Lions will be how tough their division is. All three teams—the Bears, Packers and Vikings—have made the postseason at least once over the past two years, and finished with a winning record a season ago. All four teams are legitimate contenders for the division title, but as the Lions showed in ‘23 and ‘24, they are more than capable of beating out their rivals for the crown.
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EVA GEITHEIM
Eva Geitheim is an NFL writer at Sports Illustrated. Prior to joining SI in December 2024, she wrote for Newsweek, Gymnastics Now and Dodgers Nation. A Bay Area native, she has a bachelor’s in communications from UCLA. When not writing, she can be found baking or rewatching Gilmore Girls.
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