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Finding it hard to work out what can still happen on the final day of the 2025-26 Premier League season? We’ve got you covered. We run through all the permutations ahead of Sunday.
The 2025-26 Premier League season concludes on Sunday, but before we all get our World Cup bunting out, there are still a few things to be decided domestically.
Arsenal have already sewn up the title, their first since 2003-04, while Manchester City, Manchester United and Aston Villa have also confirmed their places in next season’s UEFA Champions League.
Wolves and Burnley have been relegated for a few weeks already, but there are still European spots to be won and one more place in the Premier League trap door to be avoided.
Here, we run through all the permutations you need to know ahead of the final day of the 2025-26 Premier League season, and see what the Opta supercomputer thinks is likeliest to happen.
Premier League Matchday 38Fixtures
Brighton vs Manchester United
Burnley vs Wolves
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal
Fulham vs Newcastle United
Liverpool vs Brentford
Manchester City vs Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth
Sunderland vs Chelsea
Tottenham vs Everton
West Ham vs Leeds United
The Fight for Europe
Erling Haaland’s stoppage-time equaliser for Man City at Bournemouth on Tuesday didn’t feel particularly significant given only a victory would have kept the title race alive.
It was a big blow to the hosts, though. Had they held on for the win, they would have been just a point off the top five and the Champions League places. As it is, Bournemouth go into the final day three points behind fifth-place Liverpool, now needing to win at Nottingham Forest and hoping Brentford beat the Reds at Anfield, with at least a seven-goal swing in goal difference.
For Liverpool, avoiding defeat to Brentford will confirm Champions League football for next season.
There is another way Bournemouth could reach the UCL, though. Following Aston Villa winning the UEFA Europa League on Wednesday, Liverpool beating Brentford could make things even more interesting.
Should Arne Slot’s side claim three points at Anfield and Villa lose at Manchester City, Unai Emery’s men will finish in fifth place, meaning the team that finishes sixth also qualifies for the Champions League. In hindsight, Bournemouth could probably have done with City still having the motivation of the title race going into their game against Villa on Sunday.
The Opta supercomputer has Liverpool finishing fourth and Villa fifth in 37.5% of simulations.
Bournemouth will be playing European football of some kind next season for the first time ever regardless, which is a fantastic achievement for outgoing boss Andoni Iraola and his team. A draw against Forest will confirm sixth spot for them, but should they lose, they will be hoping that Brighton don’t beat Manchester United, otherwise the Seagulls will leapfrog them as they already have superior goal difference.
The Cherries were only able to finish above Liverpool in 0.4% of the supercomputer’s simulations, but sealed sixth in a whopping 85.0%. They slipped to seventh place in 14.7%.
Below that, the battle for the remaining European spots could be quite exciting, though we should mention that if Villa finish fifth and the sixth UCL spot opens up, that won’t mean an extra place in Europe overall. The Premier League will just lose one of its Europa League slots, so seventh place will still qualify for the UEL and eighth for the Conference League.
Brighton beating United will confirm at least a Europa League place for them, but a draw or defeat will leave them vulnerable as they are just a point ahead of Chelsea and Brentford, and just two ahead of Sunderland.
Fabian Hürzeler’s men finished sixth in 14.7% of the supercomputer’s simulations, seventh in 45.7%, and eighth in 30.7%. They only missed out on Europe altogether in 8.9% of sims.
Chelsea’s 2-1 win over Tottenham on Tuesday was not just a bad result for Spurs, but a useful one for the Blues. A win at Sunderland on the final day will confirm European football for Chelsea, and Brighton also failing to beat Man Utd would mean it’s the Europa League. A Seagulls win, though, would see Chelsea enter the Conference League for a second time in three seasons.
Chelsea finished seventh in 27.4% of simulations following their final game before Xabi Alonso takes charge, and stayed eighth in 39.7%, meaning there is a 32.9% chance of them missing out on Europe altogether.
If Chelsea and Sunderland draw, that will open the door for Brentford, should they get anything at Liverpool. Keith Andrews’ men would likely need to win, though, as they have an inferior goal difference to Chelsea and the Blues losing would mean Sunderland have won. The only way Brentford can finish higher than ninth with a draw is if Brighton lose by at least six goals to United.
As a result, Brentford only finished in seventh spot in 6.6% of simulations, and eighth in 13.4%.
Sunderland are outsiders, but also have a decent chance of sneaking in. They need to beat Chelsea at the Stadium of Light, and doing so would mean they go ahead of the Blues, so they would then just need Brentford to have dropped points at Liverpool to get eighth. They could even get seventh and a Europa League place if Brighton also lose.
Regis Le Bris’ side finished eighth in 16.2% of sims, and in seventh in 5.6%.
That’s it, though. Because Sunderland are playing Chelsea, meaning at least one of them will get points, Newcastle United, Everton and Fulham are out of the running for European football.
Will Tottenham or West Ham Drop?
Now, for the significantly easier calculations to work out the relegation battle.
Tottenham could have effectively ended things at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday with a point, but their 2-1 loss to Chelsea left things open with one game left each.
Spurs are at home to Everton on Sunday, where avoiding defeat will almost certainly keep them up as West Ham would then need to produce a Premier League record-sized win to make up the goal difference.
Should Roberto De Zerbi’s men lose, though, that would allow the Hammers the chance to pounce. They need to beat Leeds United at London Stadium. Any other result sends them down to the Championship.
The Opta supercomputer still makes West Ham heavy favourites to go down (85.5%), with Spurs only dropping in 14.5% of sims.
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