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Chaos has broken out at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Paraguay has pulled off a massive upset in the Round of 32, taking down four-time World Cup champions Germany in a penalty shootout.
Entering the match, Paraguay was ranked 41st in the FIFA World Rankings, while Germany sat 10th. The 31-place gap makes this the fourth-biggest knockout-stage upset by FIFA ranking since the rankings were introduced.
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The other three above it were:
- Russia (70th) vs. Spain (10th), difference of 60 spots in the 2018 Round of 16 (advanced in penalties).
- South Korea (40th) vs. Italy (6th), difference of 34 spots in the 2002 Round of 16 (won with golden goal)
- South Korea (40th) vs. Spain (8th), difference of 32 spots in the 2002 Quarterfinal (advanced in penalties).
Paraguay was listed at +900 to win in the three-way betting market, though the draw (+400) ultimately cashed before La Albirroja prevailed on penalties. Paraguay's win became the largest World Cup upset in the knockout stage in 36 years.
Germany entered the match as -700 favorites to advance, while Paraguay was +520. According to BetMGM sportsbook insights, 99% of the money wagered was on Germany to qualify as Paraguay’s victory was the biggest betting upset win of the 2026 World Cup so far.
Despite Germany controlling possession for much of the first half, Julio Enciso gave Paraguay the lead with a 42nd-minute goal. According to FOX Sports Research, no team since detailed World Cup data began in 1966 had completed 253 more successful passes than its opponent in the first half and still trailed at halftime.
Kai Havertz equalized early in the second half before Paraguay’s defense held firm through regulation and extra time. Jonathan Tah appeared to send Germany through with an extra-time header, but the goal was ruled off following a VAR review for a foul, sending the match to penalties.
Even then, Germany remained -200 favorites to win heading into the shootout, having never lost one at a men’s World Cup. That streak ended when José Canale converted the decisive penalty, handing Germany its first-ever World Cup shootout defeat.
Germany entered the tournament at +1400 to win the World Cup and was widely considered one of the favorites. Instead, it exits before the Round of 16 for the third straight World Cup, becoming the highest pre-tournament favorite eliminated so far.
Paraguay, which opened the tournament at +25000 to win the World Cup, has reached the Round of 16 for the first time since its run to the quarterfinals in 2010. La Albirroja’s title odds have now shortened to +20000 as it awaits the winner of France vs. Sweden in the Round of 16.
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