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We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League clash at Anfield with our Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction and preview. Can the visitors avoid a seventh successive loss?
Liverpool vs Chelsea: The Key Stats
- Liverpool are strong favourites with the Opta supercomputer this weekend, taking three points in 52.5% of its pre-match simulations, while Chelsea are given just a 25.7% chance.
- Liverpool have lost their last two league games against Chelsea, as many defeats as they endured in their previous 20 matches against them (W8 D10).
- The Blues are on a six-match losing streak in the Premier League and have only lost seven in a row once in their league history, between November and December 1952.
Just a few weeks ago, it seemed the battle for Champions League qualification would go down to the wire, with Manchester United, Liverpool, Aston Villa and Chelsea all competing for the remaining places.
Cut to Matchday 36, and the results have effectively already been decided, with Man Utd joining Arsenal and Manchester City as Champions League certainties for next season with their dramatic 3-2 win over the Reds last Sunday.
With Chelsea having dropped out of the race due to a poor run of form, Liverpool and Villa are left as the two remaining contenders, with both now favoured to secure a top-five finish.
Ahead of Saturday’s clash with Chelsea, the Opta supercomputer gives Arne Slot’s side a 98.29% chance of securing Champions League football, with Villa only marginally higher at 95.79%.
But the Reds will need to respond quickly after last weekend’s defeat to Man Utd ended their three-match Premier League winning streak.
It has certainly been a difficult title defence campaign for Liverpool, who have lost 11 matches in the league this season – their most since 2014-15, when they lost 12 under Brendan Rogers. Across all competitions, Slot’s side have suffered 18 defeats – their most since 2009-10 (19).
Many of those losses have stemmed from defensive fragilities, whether through injuries or inconsistent form. In fact, Liverpool have shipped two or more goals in 16 different Premier League matches this season, only conceding more often in 2012-13 (17 games).
Chelsea, meanwhile, have fallen away dramatically in the race for Champions League qualification. The Blues have lost each of their last six Premier League matches and have only ever lost seven on the trot once before, between November and December 1952.
They were also held scoreless in five of those six defeats, finally ending that drought in Monday’s 3-1 loss to a heavily rotated Nottingham Forest side.
There would have been hope that after parting ways with Liam Rosenior, caretaker boss Calum McFarlane would be able to steady the ship, but his second spell in charge this season got off to a rocky start against Forest.
That result left Chelsea ninth in the table, 10 points adrift of the top five, though there was at least encouragement from João Pedro finally ending their goal drought with a spectacular stoppage-time overhead kick.
While their Champions League prospects are as good as over, Chelsea still retain an outside chance of qualifying for the Europa League (4.11%, according to the Opta supercomputer), as they trail sixth-placed Bournemouth by four points.
But if they are to keep those slim European hopes alive, they will have to shore up their leaky defence. The Blues have conceded in each of their last 13 Premier League games and have shipped three goals in four of their last five. Their last longer run without a clean sheet in the league was a 17-match stretch between March and August 1991.
There may not be much to write home about at the other end of the pitch, but João Pedro continues to impress. The Brazilian is Chelsea’s leading scorer in both the Premier League (15) and across all competitions (20) and has been directly involved in seven of their last nine league goals (six goals, one assist).
For Liverpool, Dominik Szoboszlai has been a rare bright spark in an otherwise inconsistent campaign. No Liverpool player has more goal contributions than the Hungarian across all competitions (13 goals, 10 assists), making him the club’s first midfielder to record double figures in both since Steven Gerrard in 2013-14 (14 goals, 14 assists).
As for notable team news, the Reds will be without Mohamed Salah, Hugo Ekitiké and Conor Bradley, though Slot could reportedly welcome Alexander Isak and Alisson back into the squad.
Chelsea will be hampered by the absence of goalkeeper Robert Sánchez, who was forced off with an injury against Forest and is unlikely to feature on Saturday, while Estêvão, Pedro Neto and Alejandro Garnacho remain doubts.
Liverpool vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
Liverpool have lost their last two Premier League games against Chelsea, suffering as many defeats as they had in their previous 20 (W8 D10). They haven’t lost three in a row against the Blues since December 2013 and November 2014.
Chelsea triumphed 2-1 in the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge in October and are aiming to complete an unlikely league double over Liverpool for the first time since 2013-14.
However, the Blues have struggled at Anfield of late, winning just one of their last 10 Premier League away matches against Liverpool (D5 L4) – a 1-0 victory under Thomas Tuchel in March 2021.
Liverpool vs ChelseaPrediction
The Opta supercomputer gives Liverpool a strong edge, rating them as favourites with a 51.5% chance of victory at Anfield.
Chelsea came out on top in just 25.7% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, while there remains a 22.8% chance of the match ending in a draw.
Liverpool vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Liverpool: Freddie Woodman, Curtis Jones, Ibrahima Konaté, Virgil van Dijk, Andy Robertson, Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai, Jeremie Frimopng, Cody Gakpo, Florian Wirtz.
Head Coach: Arne Slot
Chelsea: Filip Jörgensen, Malo Gusto, Tosin Adarabioyo, Trevoh Chalobah, Marc Cucurella, Moisés Caicedo, Roméo Lavia, Enzo Fernández, Andrey Santos, Cole Palmer, João Pedro.
Interim Head Coach: Calum MacFarlane
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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