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How is the run-in shaping up for title contenders Arsenal and Man City?

by Luna
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Bukayo Saka of Arsenal controls the ball while under pressure from Bernardo Silva, Rodri and Matheus Nunes of Manchester City
[Getty Images]

It's tense at the top. With matches running out, here's how the Premier League title race is looking.

Arsenal and Man City's remaining fixtures with difficulty ranking
[BBC]

Arsenal enjoy a seven-point lead over Manchester City but have played a game more.

Looking at the remaining fixtures, the Gunners have a slightly easier run-in on paper, although their eight remaining games include what could be a title-defining trip to the Etihad on 19 April.

Beyond that, it is worth noting that four of Arsenal's next five league games are at home against mid-table sides, while four of Manchester City's next five are away, including a trip to Chelsea.

While some have questioned Arsenal's ability to go on and win the league, it's clear City haven't been the terrifying force of seasons past.

In fact, only twice under Pep Guardiola have they had fewer points after 29 games than their haul of 60 this term – in their first season under him back in 2016-17 (58) and last season (48).

Arsenal and City's Xg difference per game
[BBC]

If we look at both teams' expected goals numbers, neither has been as dominant as the title-winners in recent years – whether due to their own flaws or the Premier League being more competitive than ever – so there's a chance of both sides slipping up in their remaining games.

Good news for Arsenal fans is that the most dominant team statistically – in terms of expected goal difference per game, excluding penalties – have won the Premier League in three of the past four seasons.

The exception came when Manchester City pipped the Gunners to the title two years ago.

Read more on how the run-in is shaping up in the battle to avoid relegation and the chase for Europe

Original Article

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