Home General'Dream scenario' – Saints and Ipswich's automatic promotion showdown

'Dream scenario' – Saints and Ipswich's automatic promotion showdown

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Split imagine showing Ryan Manning and Taylor Harwood-Bellis of Southampton celebrating and Ipswich's Leif Davis jumping on the back of team-mate George Hirst
Southampton and Ipswich Town are bidding to make an instant return to the Premier League [Getty Images]

Two hundred and sixty three days from the start of the Championship campaign, four days from the end of it, but Tuesday could be the defining day in the race for the Premier League.

Coventry City may sealed the title to end a 25-year stay in the EFL, but it is two teams who competed in the top-flight last season who come head-to-head to decide which one might return there at the first time of asking via automatic promotion.

Depending on the outcome of this showdown at least one, if not both, of Southampton and Ipswich will have to recalculate their route back to the top table of English football via the play-offs.

With Millwall and Middlesbrough still firmly in the race, all eyes will be on St Mary's to discover just what is at stake going into the season finale on Saturday.

What's at stake?

Everything.

After seeing a late lead in their FA Cup semi-final against Man City wiped out in the closing stages at Wembley on Saturday, Saints will turn their attention back to the fight for automatic promotion.

Tonda Eckert's side are fifth, four points behind Ipswich, who lie ahead of third-placed Millwall on goal difference, with Middlesbrough a point back in fourth.

Saints are unbeaten in 17 league games but must win on Tuesday to keep their hopes of a second-placed finish alive.

Following Saturday's goalless draw at West Bromwich Albion, a win for Ipswich would all but secure promotion, no matter what happens on the final day, given their huge goal difference (+30) advantage over Millwall (+13).

"You encourage the players to stay away from the external noise and just focus on the opponent [but] they are human beings, it's impossible to block everything out," said Ipswich boss Kieran McKenna.

"They are all super motivated to be successful. This is what you want at this stage of the season, you want to be competing for your goals.

"Of course, the dream scenario would be to get over the line at St Mary's, but the energy and thoughts need to go towards performance and what it's going to take.

"They are a very good side, excellent players and excellently coached and with big confidence and momentum, that makes them a big challenge for us."

Town have won 33 points from 22 games on the road this season, giving them the seventh best away record in the division, but 14 fewer than they have earned at Portman Road.

Saints are much better at home than on the road, losing just three of their 22 games, and only one of 16 under Eckert, to Hull City on 17 January.

A draw would mean Saints drop out of the race at the penultimate hurdle and make it a three-team fight for the second automatic spot on the final afternoon on Saturday, but with Ipswich remaining in the box seat ahead of QPR's visit to Portman Road.

Eckert told BBC Radio Solent: "It's a big, big test test of maturity for us on Tuesday, because we need to be ready again."

But it is not just Saints and Town fans who have a vested interest.

Middlesbrough boss Kim Hellberg told BBC Radio Tees on Saturday that he will be watching.

"I love football," he said. "I watch every game that it's possible to watch when there's a chance. Is it Champions League at the same time? Well maybe I'll have a double screen. That is my favourite, when you can watch a lot of games at the same time.

"We'll see what happens. It's not down to us, but we've done what we could and I'm very happy with that."

Inconsistent Ipswich

McKenna's men were the firm bookies' favourites to win the title on the eve of the season in August.

Town were odds-on to go up, with Southampton the second-favourites, and the other relegated Premier League side, Leicester City, third in the betting… though the less said about that the better.

For the record, champions Coventry were sixth-favourites for promotion, behind Birmingham City and Sheffield United, and just ahead of Middlesbrough.

However, Ipswich took a while to get up to speed and left themselves too much to do in the title race in the back half of the campaign.

George Hirst salvaged a 1-1 draw at Birmingham from the penalty spot in the campaign's curtain-raiser on 8 August, and Ipswich had to settle for the same score in their Portman Road opener against Southampton.

A 1-0 defeat at Preston and a 2-2 draw at home to Derby made it four games without a win to start the campaign, leaving Town 19th.

December changed everything. Town swept aside leaders Coventry at Portman Road on 6 December, and then beat Stoke City in their 21st game of the campaign four days later to jump into the top five, and have stayed there ever since.

Town's season has had some glorious highlights, beating the Champions home and away by an aggregate score of 5-0 and doing the double over rivals Norwich City for the first time in 33 years, but has also had some real lows at key points of the season.

October's 3-0 loss to Charlton Athletic remains their only home defeat of the campaign, while relegated Leicester took four points off Town this season. They also lost to Oxford United, another side bound for League One.

While Coventry were wobbling at the summit in the new year, giving the chasing pack a glimmer of hope, Town went down 3-1 at Sheffield United, needed a stoppage-time penalty to salvage a point at home to Preston North End and lost 5-3 at Wrexham.

Even during the run-in, with promotion in their own hands, Town went down 2-0 at struggling Portsmouth on 14 April to leave the door open for Pompey's south-coast rivals to make this a very big night indeed.

One statistic that has favoured Ipswich this season is the number of penalties they have been awarded.

In all, they have now been awarded 10 spot kicks, four more than any other side in the Championship, having played a game fewer than 22 other clubs.

Coventry have been awarded five this season, Middlesbrough four, Saints three and Millwall just two.

Of the six goals that Ipswich have scored in their past five matches, three have come from the penalty spot, including a priceless winner from Jaden Philogene at Charlton last week.

Saints back from the brink

When Southampton turned around a 1-0 deficit against Wrexham at St Mary's on the opening day of the season with two stoppage-time goals, hopes were high of a new dawn.

Saints had lost 30 of their 38 Premier League games last season, winning only twice to earn 12 points, effectively 27 short of safety, leading to the arrival of Will Still as head coach in May.

The new dawn proved to be a false one. Saints won just one of their next dozen Championship games and Still, and the players, were booed off after a 2-0 home defeat by Preston on 1 November.

Still's reign was over and under-21 coach Tonda Eckert was appointed interim boss the following day, and they have barely looked back since.

Saints won six of their next seven games, scoring 19 goals in those wins, and despite a wobble over the festive period, taking just three points from seven winless games, Eckert's side hit back with a 20-match unbeaten run in all competitions.

Leicester, Fulham and Premier League leaders Arsenal were dispatched in a glorious run to the FA Cup semi-finals in the midst of a 17-game unbeaten streak in the Championship, which yielded 41 points and lifted Saints from 14th in the table into the top-four, within striking distance of the automatic promotion places.

Saints twice come from behind in last Tuesday's 2-2 draw at home to Bristol City, but they failed to find a winner which would have made the game against Ipswich even more interesting.

Original Article

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