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Transcript
One more thing I want to get to, uh, before we get out of here, Albert, is the running back market.
And I've been fascinated by this.
I think that I, I was driven nuts by it personally during the whole Jeremiah Love discussion about, well, you can't draft him this high because it makes him the most guaranteed money for a running back.
Um, and, you know, I, I, I don't, I still think that with as flexible as a cap can be.
The onus is on ownership and to spend money, A, and your cap people to figure that out.
B, and your job as football people is just to draft good players that can help you, right?
And I don't think that any offensive coordinator is laying awake at night going, oh my God, but the percentage of the cap allocated to the this guy, no, I need this guy to win, and so we're gonna get him.
Um, but the running back market .
The has turned over.
We had the deal for, uh, Achan, and we also had the deal, um, for Bruce Hall.
And now what we're sitting at and we're looking at are potential deals for Bejon Robinson and Jamir Gibbs.
These deals are going to be significant, which I think those two guys are on another like all Hall and A Chan are good players.
I think like.
Gibbs and Bijon are the next level up.
Yeah, no, I agree, and you would assume that they're going to pass Saquon Barkley, uh, in terms of average per year salary.
Uh, Saquan Barkley is at 20.6%. And what's interesting though when it comes to Jeremiah Love is.
Does his amount guaranteed at signing factor in to the amount guaranteed?
I hadn't thought about that received by by Jamir Gibbs and Bejon Robinson, because here's how it breaks down, right?
The Saquon Barkley got the most guaranteed money ever for a running back, which was 36 million of the 41.2 million in the extension handed to him at once.
He, now that contract, Albert was.
In the 36 million number, I don't think was an accident because it was signed right before the drafting of Ashton Jenny, who, by being drafted at number 6, was guaranteed 35.
895812, right?
And so, I think that that number did factor in to, uh, you know, to Saquon Barkley's extension.
Now the question is, does Jamir Gibbs get to leapfrog Jeremiah Love's number?
So Love's number.
It blows everything out of the water, which is why it's gotta be like 50 something, right?
It's 53.
02, right?
So he essentially has $20 million more guaranteed dollars than Saquon Barkley, and this is what all the infighting was about, about why the Cardinals shouldn't draft him, why everyone thought this was a serious mistake in terms of the salary cap, and I get that.
But by the way , let's say this about that, like I just, I know, um.
You know, I've talked with Stephen Jones about this, like when they, I remember when they drafted Zeke Elliott, and I think I've made this point in the show before, but like one thing that I think flies in the face of that is like when you draft a running back that high, You are getting the prime of his career on his rookie deal, you know what I mean?
Like, whereas like when you pay a guy after year 3 or year 4, you're paying for the prime, you know what I mean, of their career.
Like I think with a running back because it translates so fast to the NFL, like I think a running back can be in his prime in his 2nd in his.
First or second year, you know what I mean, so you're not like you like I think the Cardinals are paying for the prime of Jeremiah Love, you know what I mean, like now, which I think gives the deal a different context.
Yeah, I, I, I mean, to me 53 is an interesting number because, and here's why, not to get like nerdy cap guy on you here, but so generally like a lot of these deals, you're just Guaranteeing the 1st 2 years.
Like that's the way Bruce Hall's deal is.
That's the way Devin Chan's deal is, like they're all like, guarantee the 1st 2 years.
So then, If you say 53, but you wanna bump it to 54, now it's $27 million a year, which is too much, I think probably um for Bijon or or Gibbs.
So then the, the alternative would be now you're guaranteeing money into the third year, right, which isn't the craziest thing in the world because you already got the first two years guaranteed anyway through the last year of the rookie deal and um.
And, uh, and the fifth-year option.
So , I think that's where you're gonna see with Gibbs and Robinson because they're former 1st-round picks because you have that love number.
Maybe you got a huge guarantee number and that number spill and, and the guaranteed money, which is rare with running backs, goes into the 3rd year of the deal.
Do you think, I mean, are we at a point now, especially as we're going to heavier personnel groupings and like the NFL is cyclical, obviously, um, the Cardinals drafted Love, having already had James Connor and, uh, Tyler Algier, and maybe they just didn't expect to make the pick there or they got the running back room together, and then Jeremiah Love fell in their laps, whatever it is, but When you're going to have your personnel, the run game is such an important part of freeing up those tight ends in the past and generating good looks in the passing game and all that stuff.
I mean, passing numbers in that way can be an investment in developing a young quarterback, right?
And passing numbers are slightly down, like passes per game, passing touchdowns, like it's granular, but it's not insignificant, right, when it comes to the NFL teams are running the ball more again.
I mean, is it, is there ever a point where we can look at this through a different lens and say, OK, like, even at that price, like a running back is probably worthwhile for me at that.
Yeah, I, I'll take you back to, you know, I had a conversation with a guy who's been an executive in the league a long time.
This is probably 10 or 15 years ago, and I'm standing on the sideline at a practice with him, and he points out to this receiver who was in a big contract dispute with the team, right?
And he was like, That guy is gonna make 3 or 4 times what this guy makes now.
And he, then he pointed at the running back, right?
He's like, yeah, that guy over there touches the ball.
4 times as much as this guy over here, and he's like, so don't tell me we did a bad deal with the running back, you know what I mean?
Like he was like, and, and it was interesting because they were having trouble getting the receiver done.
The receiver was a really good player, but it was like, don't tell me that this running back over here is not worth every penny we're paying him because like we are like, as he saw it, like if you looked at like just the way they're used.
You're getting now we, we can get into, obviously, he said it like, obviously with the, with the, the acknowledgement that like receivers affect the game differently and they're harder all that stuff, you last longer , all that.
But, you know, I, I just remember having that thought, and you and I have talked about this two years ago, when Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs were all free agents, and the Ravens, the Eagles, and the Packers signed those three guys at the top of the market.
And I remember when that happened, I had that thought like those aren't stupid teams.
You know what I mean?
Like, those teams saw something, they collectively saw something , right?
And that's that, that position has become devalued to the point where now it was of value to sign one.
So now, I think we see with what some of these guys have gotten in the return, some of the teams have gotten on some of these guys.
All right, like, what does Bijon get?
What does Jamir Gibbs get?
Um, I would think, I mean, what do you think, 21?
Right, I mean, it's gonna be so.
The APY leader right now is Saquan Barkley at 20.6. I would say if you're Jerem, if you're Jamir Gibbs and Bijon, you don't get out of bed for less than 21.
God, what a sentence, right?
Um, and for both of them, it's a waiting game because you want the other one to sign first.
And like it's almost like the, um, Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson dual extensions, right?
You want the other guy to sign first because, well, then I'm gonna pop 40, you know, I'm gonna pop the 35, whatever it is.
Um, and like, like you would think like whatever the first guy signs for becomes the floor for the second guy, right?
Yeah, and my guess is it would probably be, you know, 21, 21.5 or 21.6, right, because then that would give you a clear, like a full million over Saquon Barkley, but I'll just say this, and this is gonna sound like such a simpleton take , but the Lions came, uh, for the best example, Sauce Gardner and, and, and, and Derrek Stingley.
I think Stingley is a better player, but Sauce Gardner makes more because Sauce Gardner went after, yeah, yeah, and, uh, there is uh good things come to those who wait.
Um, there was a joint practice between the Giants and the Lions, and I went to a couple of them last year, and I just remember standing behind.
The Lions huddle and watching the entire sequence of plays go, and, you know, they're running some of the same plays multiple times with David Montgomery and then with Jamir Gibbs.
And this is why, like, the running back argument craters in my mind because seeing Jamir Gibbs in there and how the Giants' defense had to behave.
It was like, it was like stomping on an anthill, like, there are people just scattering everywhere because he is so incredibly versatile, and even if, and I, and I get the argument, uh, my good buddy Bill Barnwell made, and I think it's a good, it's a really good argument that, like, these guys don't really touch the ball as receivers, so to build them as weapons and to use that to legitimize the finances of it is false.
I agree with that.
But there's also this, like, watching what happens when that guy is in the game and watching how defenses behave, whether it's from the backfield or it's from this, whatever it is.
I just think that there are certain people who are worth that caliber of money.
Tamir Gibbs and Bejon Robinson are worth that kind of money, you know.
I mean, if you want to drill down on it, to me, it's like the ultimate thing that I, I think like one of the, One of the, the, I think the ultimate weapons offensively are the guys who Who can be queens on the chessboard and who can be the guys where it's like we have to prepare for that guy in multiple ways and that's why I think tight ends are so valuable, right?
Like is that like Gronkowski or Kelsey, it's like, OK, so you wanna come out, you know, in a, in, in, in a 4-3 in your base defense.
Well then you're matching a linebacker up on my tight end, we're gonna throw it.
If I see you take that linebacker off the field and you're putting a safety out there or another corner out there, well, then my, my tight end is gonna block that safety or corner and like, and my running back's gonna be coming right behind him, you know, it's like when you break the huddle, you have to know where that guy's lined up and like the offense has that, that, that, that advantage on you.
And I think with, with running backs who can catch the ball out of the backfield, it becomes the same thing.
It's, you know, with Bejon Robinson, OK, because of his presence out there.
Do you have to put a third linebacker on the field, you know, and then if you put that 3rd linebacker on the field now, is that guy covering Bejon Robinson if he goes out into the route, you know what I mean?
Like, so it becomes like now, and now that simplifies things for the quarterback, for the coach, where it's like, all right, I see, I see the 3rd linebacker out there.
You know, we're checking where we're gonna be throwing to Bijon now and he's gonna be in the open field matched up with that linebacker, you know, it's like stuff like that, that I think people don't think of with some of these guys, where like a really great tight end who can do both, or a running back who can do both.
In today's game where so much changes between the break of the huddle and the snap of the ball and what you're doing as far as like, you know, just the coach getting the play into the quarterback, the quarterback being able to change the play on the fly, like that running back, that like Marshall Fox style running back that can do both or the in the tight end who can do both, those have become like, I think the weapons that Allow you to have your way, and that doesn't mean receivers aren't valuable.
They are, of course, but like, those two positions can help you in ways that I don't think fans see just watching the game.
I agree .
And that's why I just think like we need to stop.
We need to develop and teams will never do this.
But as people who cover the game and as fans of the sport, here's my plea to fans of the sport as we close out here.
Can I, can, can you indulge me on this 11 thing real too, real quick too, because Kyle Shanahan gave me the best description of this, like with the value of fullback a couple of years ago.
Um, this was actually when they, when they, when they paid use check, and he said to me, Like, I was talking about the value of a fullback and nobody has fullbacks and at the time, like no one had fullbacks anymore, and, and why do you have a fullback on your roster and why are you paying him?
And he said to me, he's like, because most defenses, and this is oversimplifying it, but the quote was incredible.
Um, and, but he said like that, most defenses are not equipped to deal with a fullback.
And most defenses now are equipped to deal with 11 personnel.
So, if they're in their nickel, right?
They're in like say like a 42 5.
Our quarterback and us as offensive play callers, we might be looking out at them and there are 30 things that they can do to us.
And they're not in their base very often.
So if I put the fullback out there and they're at their base, now there's only 10 things they can do to me.
So I'm limiting what they do defensively to me because they don't have a lot of experience, and that's, they don't have as, they don't have as much like time on task and that look.
They don't have as big a menu of things they can do to me, and it's simple and, and having the fullback out there simplifies everything for me.
It's just like I, I think that's the stuff that like a lot of these coaches think about with running backs with fullbacks with tight ends, um, the quote unquote semi-skill play players like that, I think really impacts the way the game is played.
And that's where, like, that's how, and it's interesting, like hearing you say that now and seeing how many of these teams are equipped to put two backs on the field, uh, like two feature backs on the field at the same time now it's kind of like, huh, you know, um, it's like, where is it going?
Is it 13 personnel or is it like, you know, I don't know.
That's why McVeigh uses 3 tight ends.
100% why it you're, you're forcing them into, you're forcing the defense to play a way it doesn't want to play.
But uh, are you guys who aren't playing as much on the field like now you got the linebacker who plays 10 snaps a game playing 50, you know what I mean like that's the whole idea.
But my, my, my question to you is like, are we now, uh, maybe is it no longer 13 personnel is it I don't know, 30 personnel.
Is it 32 personnel?
You know what I mean?
Is it, is it 3 backs?
Is it 2 feature backs and a full back, uh, you know, I don't know.
Uh, I think that's a question worth asking.
My plea, as we close this out, like I said, is to be imaginative as a fan.
And don't succumb to that, like, well, this guy doesn't cost as much as this guy thinks.
Like, that's gonna take care of itself.
Enjoy the produce of that.
Now, if your team signs a running back, like if your team does the Le'Veon Bell contract like the Jets did, Make fun of him, by all, by all accounts, like, the, I, I, I doubt the coaching staff even wanted him there when he was there, right?
That's a different kind of disaster.
If your team signs Jamir Gibbs and it's like, well, I'm worried about the amount of guarantee, just shut up and watch football.
You know what I mean?
Like, he's gonna do something cool on the field, I promise.
That's why they're paying him $21 million a year.
Just enjoy it.
