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It's one of the questions I get asked most often during the offseason.
"Who is this year's version of [enter breakout player from last season]?"
It's not a simple question to answer, because no two scenarios are exactly alike. But there are obviously comparable players in similar situations. And, if the people want comparisons, comparisons they shall have!
The process is simple: I wrote down each of 2025's top breakout players and came up with a short list of players who fit a similar pedigree as they enter 2026. Below is an analysis of each player who best fits the bill, as well as the other players who landed on the short list.
This is not my way of definitively predicting that these players will definitely break out this season. It's simply the players positioned to do as a product of landing in a similar situation to those players who exploded onto the fantasy scene last season.
This season's Drake Maye/Caleb Williams: Jaxson Dart
Maye and Williams were Year 2 quarterback breakouts who both finished top 5 in fantasy points.
Dart is one of my favorite targets in 2026 fantasy drafts after an impressive rookie season in which he delivered eight — yes, eight — top-10 fantasy weeks (only four QBs had more) despite playing most of the snaps in only 12 games. Dart has quickly emerged as an elite rushing threat, he has a better head coach in John Harbaugh, and his supporting cast is improved with a healthy Malik Nabers (at some point) and Isaiah Likely. Even if he’s only passable as a passer (see what I did there?), Dart’s rushing numbers supply him with elite fantasy upside.
Other candidate:Tyler Shough
This season's Tetairoa McMillan/Emeka Egbuka: Carnell Tate
McMillan and Egbuka were rookie wide receivers who emerged as weekly fantasy starters.
No surprise here. The fourth overall pick of April's draft, Tate has Year 1 production written all over him. History agrees, as wide receivers selected in the top 10 handle, on average, one-quarter of their team's targets and generally deliver WR2/3 fantasy production. The Ohio State product will have to fend off Wan’Dale Robinson and Calvin Ridley and needs a Year 2 leap from QB Cam Ward, but there’s plenty of reason for optimism considering his elite efficiency at Ohio State and the Titans’ draft investment.
Other candidates:Jordyn Tyson, Makai Lemon, KC Concepcion
This season's Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Emeka Egbuka
JSN was a young receiver who made the leap from good to great.
This was a tough call between Egbuka and McMillan. While McMillan was more consistent as a rookie and is perhaps the safer play, Egbuka has shown a much higher ceiling. Most of that ceiling production came early on, as the then-rookie scored five touchdowns and averaged 20.5 fantasy points per game during his first five outings. He fell off from there (one TD and 7.8 PPG over his final 12 games), though that can partially be attributed to injuries to both he and Baker Mayfield. Of course, with Mike Evans gone, Egbuka has a real shot to operate as Tampa Bay’s top target in 2026. There’s some risk after the slow finish, but the upside here is massive.
Other candidates: McMillan, Luther Burden III, Matthew Golden
This season's Ashton Jeanty: Jeremiyah Love
Jeanty was a high-volume lineup lock as a rookie running back.
Love was selected third overall in April's draft, which is notable considering that each of the past nine running backs drafted in the top 12 went on to finish top 12 in fantasy points as a rookie. That includes Jeanty, and though you were surely disappointed by his slow start, he still finished sixth among backs in touches and 11th in fantasy points. He was the worst finisher among the aforementioned nine backs, and odds are Love will be better. Skilled as a rusher, receiver and blocker, Love has elite fantasy upside right out of the gate.
Other candidate:Jadarian Price
This season's Tyler Warren: Kenyon Sadiq
Warren was a rookie tight end turned immediate fantasy starter.
It used to take a while for tight ends to make a fantasy impact, but that's no longer the case. Over the last five seasons, Brock Bowers (first), Sam LaPorta (first), Warren (fourth), Harold Fannin Jr. (sixth) and Kyle Pitts (sixth) have delivered terrific fantasy campaigns as a rookies. Additionally, all five tight ends who were drafted in the first round during the span (Bowers, Warren, Pitts, Colston Loveland and Dalton Kincaid) finished top 12 in fantasy points as a rookie. Sadiq was selected 16th overall in April’s draft and, while he’s not exactly stepping into an elite offense, it’s very possible he emerges as Geno Smith’s No. 2 or 3 target this season. Sadiq sports 4.39 wheels at 241 pounds (an excellent 130 speed score!) and should be on your radar in the later rounds.
This season's Matthew Stafford/Trevor Lawrence: Justin Herbert
Stafford and Lawrence were veteran quarterbacks who enjoyed one of their best seasons en route to a solid QB1 season.
This may come as a surprise, but Herbert has one career finish better than ninth in fantasy points, and that was in 2021. He has finished 10th or worse in fantasy points (straight up and points per game) each of the last four seasons. Of course, Stafford's third-place finish last season marked his first top 10 since 2017, and Lawrence's fourth-place finish was his second-career top 10 and first since 2022, so a leap forward for Herbert in good conditions is certainly possible. Herbert is an asset with his legs (he ranked second among QBs in rushing yards last season) and it's possible that he'll be better through the air in 2026 with Mike McDaniel calling the offense and with a healthier offensive line.
Other candidates:Brock Purdy, Daniel Jones, Mayfield, Malik Willis
This season's Javonte Williams/Kenny Gainwell: Kenneth Walker III
Williams and Gainwell were veteran running backs who finally put it all together after a change of scenery.
Believe it or not, reigning Super Bowl MVP Walker has yet to finish a season better than 18th among RBs in fantasy points or 12th in points per game. It was a similar story for Williams and Gainwell, who broke out in Dallas and Pittsburgh, respectively, last season. Walker signed with the Chiefs during free agency and has a very clear path to feature back duties in a good offense. Walker has delivered 1,150-plus yards in three of his four seasons and, though he deferred goal line work to Zach Charbonnet in 2025, he has shown he can deliver as a scorer (eight-plus TDs in each of the prior three seasons). He’s very much on the RB1 radar, with top-5 upside.
Other candidates:Rachaad White, Rico Dowdle
This season's George Pickens: Jaylen Waddle
Pickens was a veteran wide receiver who made a big leap in a new uniform.
Waddle has had more career success than Pickens did prior to the trade to Dallas, but it may surprise you that the ex-Dolphin has finished outside the top 20 receivers in fantasy points (straight up and per game) each of the last three seasons. He'll look to get back to his early-career ways (top 15 in 2021 and 2022) in Denver. Waddle's ceiling isn't elite — he has finished top 20 among receivers in yards and top 15 in touchdowns only once — but he very well could lead the Sean Payton and Bo Nix-led Denver offense in targets and catches. Similar to Pickens last season, Waddle very well could deliver solid WR2 numbers.
Other candidates:Michael Pittman Jr., Wan’Dale Robinson
This season's Harold Fannin Jr./Oronde Gadsden II: Terrance Ferguson
Fannin and Gadsden were relatively unheralded tight end breakouts.
Whereas Fannin and Gadsden were rookies, Ferguson is entering his second NFL season, but he fits our description due to his late-round availability on draft day. The 2025 second-round pick was a situational vertical threat as a rookie, with his 17.5 average depth of target the highest by any tight end (minimum 10 targets) in at least a decade. Consistent volume is a potential concern here with the Rams loaded with tight end depth, but it's very possible Ferguson settles in as the No. 3 target behind Puka Nacua and 33-year-old Davante Adams in an elite offense led by Matthew Stafford. And if one of the receivers misses extended time? We could be looking at solid TE1 production.
Other candidate:Gunnar Helm
This season's Michael Wilson/Parker Washington: Jack Bech
Wilson and Washington went from (mostly) undrafted to impact player.
This is the trickiest one, as I'd have the candidates for this list ranked much higher if they had a strong shot at a breakout. Still, Wilson and Washington helped us to league titles, so it's worth a little digging. Bech didn't do much during an underwhelming rookie campaign — he cleared three targets in a game only twice and failed to score a touchdown — but the 2025 second-round pick now has a new offensive playcaller, a new quarterback and minimal target competition. The TCU product is an interesting Hail Mary flier in the late rounds.
Other candidates:Tre’ Harris, Ryan Flournoy, Isaac TeSlaa
