Jul 23, 2026, 06:48 AM ETOpen Extended Reactions
Don't look now, but Andy Reid has now gone under the betting win total in three of the last five seasons with the Kansas City Chiefs following an eight-season streak of going over the season win total. Even still, last year was Reid’s first season under 10 wins in over a decade, and it came in true “betting regression” fashion.
After the 2024 team had a remarkable 12-0 record in one-score games (including the postseason), the 2025 edition went a shocking 1-9 in games decided by seven points or fewer. Tack on a Patrick Mahomes ACL tear and you can confidently crumple up the script and start fresh this season. With an unknown time frame for Kansas City to get back up to speed, its win total of 10.5 is tied for the lowest since Mahomes’ first year as starter. — Kevin Pulsifer
Note: Odds by DK Sports
and subject to change.
2026 outlook: Run game should be much improved
The Chiefs are clearly in a reload phase of their roster building as they transition from the first Mahomes era to the second. By trading away CB Trent McDuffie and letting CB Jaylen Watson and S Bryan Cook walk in free agency, over 2,000 snaps have departed the Chiefs’ secondary. Steve Spagnuolo will be tasked with developing younger players into key roles — admittedly, something he does very well — and the success of the defense will hinge on that development. It’s unlikely the Chiefs suddenly become an explosive passing offense again, seeing that they made no major additions at wide receiver. But with a more dangerous rushing attack now that Kenneth Walker III is in the building, they may be able to follow their 2024 model of executing on offense and winning close games with their defense. — Ben Solak
Best bet: Kenneth Walker III OVER 924.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Chiefs had the worst explosive rush rate of the century last year. Walker's tackle-breaking and open-field speed will be a welcome breath of fresh air in the Chiefs' otherwise anemic rushing attack. And given the absurdly thin depth chart behind him, it's reasonable to expect Walker to take 80% or more of the team's total carries. Assuming a full season of health, Walker's season-long line should be closer to 1,000 flat. — Solak
