Big Bets Report: Prediction Markets Ramp Up World Cup Wagering

Patrick Everson FOX Sports Betting Analyst

World Cup odds continue to draw massive action as the tournament rolls through the group stage.

And a lot of that activity is monopoly-money-type trades on prediction markets, controversial as they might be.

So when a major wager lands at a sportsbook, it actually tends to stand out a bit more, like the Vegas high-roller who was all over Argentina on Monday, ponying up three-quarters of a million dollars.

Read on for more on that bet, along with a Nostradamus parlay, Sunday Funday for Barstool Sports’ Dave Portnoy, some leftovers from last week’s Day of the Draw, and a few of those countless prediction-market plays.

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Big Money On Messi

On Sunday afternoon, 19 hours before the Argentina vs. Austria match, Station Sports reported a massive play on the favorite. A customer at Red Rock Resorts put $777,000 on Argentina -215 to win the match.

Granted, Argentina was coming off a 3-0 rout of Algeria, in which superstar Lionel Messi scored all three goals — more on that later.

Oh, and Argentina is the defending World Cup champ.

But -215, while a solid favorite, is no slam dunk, particularly in a tournament that had already seen 13 draws in 40 matches, including two from unheralded unknown Cape Verde, which pre-tourney was among the longest shots on any sportsbook’s betting board.

Nine minutes into the Argentina-Austria match, Messi actually missed a penalty kick, which could’ve been a bit foreboding. Messi rebounded with a 38th-minute goal, yet the bettor was still sweating well into second-half injury time, with Argentina clinging to that 1-0 lead.

Then Messi put away another goal to seal a 2-0 victory. The high-roller banked a $361,395 win, for a total payout of $1,138,395.

Parlay Partay

Last Tuesday, it didn’t take a genius to compile a parlay of France, Norway and Argentina. France was a -220 favorite vs. Senegal, Argentina was -225 vs. Algeria, and Norway was a hefty -475 vs. Iraq.

But correctly parlaying the exact final score of all three matches? Well, that’s a lot more impressive.

At Hard Rock Bet, a customer had $50 on just that: Argentina +800 to win 3-0, France +1000 to win 3-1, and Norway +1400 to win 4-1

Add up all that in a parlay, and you get huge long-shot odds of +148400. Or in easier-to-read terms, 1484/1.

It took a boatload of luck — as parlays often do — but this three-leg ticket got there. Argentina’s 3-0 win wasn’t much of a sweat, thanks to Messi’s hat trick, capped by a 76th minute goal.

However, France needed a Kylian Mbappé goal six minutes into second-half injury time to finish off a 3-1 win. Similarly, in the 96th minute of Iraq-Norway, an own goal sealed Norway’s 4-1 victory.

That’s the kind of good fortune needed to turn 50 bucks into $74,250.

Crystal Ball

There were four matches Sunday on the World Cup oddsboard. The first match was a 4-0 Spain rout of Saudi Arabia, with the final goal scored just four minutes into the second half. So it wasn’t exactly compelling.

But the next three matches were, and Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy had himself a day because of it.

In the day’s second match, Belgium was a solid -250 favorite on the three-way moneyline, with Iran a substantial +600 underdog and Draw at +380.

Forty minutes before the match, Portnoy posted this on X:

Subsequently, big ‘dog Iran scratched out a point in a 0-0 draw.

Then came Uruguay vs. Cape Verde, with Uruguay -225, Cape Verde +700 and Draw +320.

Cape Verde proceeded to score two crazy goals — one from distance and one with Uruguay goalkeeper Fernando Muslera wildly out of position — in a 2-2 tie.

So it was on to the New Zealand-Egypt match, and one more prediction:

It didn’t look good with Egypt trailing 1-0 at halftime. But the Egyptian side stormed back with three second-half goals.

In the 82nd minute, Egypt’s Trezeguet scored, accounting for the final margin in a 3-1 victory and clinching the Egypt -1.5 bet, which had odds in the range of +170.

Anyone who tailed Portnoy’s predictions had a pretty good day. A $100 bet on each would’ve netted $870 profit.

Prediction Profit & Loss

Social media is overloaded with big-money trades on the World Cup. Not a day has gone by without Kalshi or Polymarket noting multiple six- and sometimes seven-figure positions.

That led to plenty of sweats, with some big winners and losers.

In Friday’s Brazil-Haiti match, a Polymarket customer put an insane $2.9 million on Under 3.5 total goals.

Then Brazil chalked up three goals in the first half alone, two from Vinícius Jr., to take a 3-0 lead at the break.

Five or six goals seemed quite likely, but that was it, with the second half scoreless. At a price of 49% — which translates to about +104 odds — the trader pocketed $3 million in profit (total payout $5.96 million).

In Friday’s Turkey vs. Paraguay match, a Polymarket trader went even deeper into the money well. The customer put nearly $4.2 million on Turkey to not win — meaning the match finishes in either a draw or Paraguay win.

Turkey lost 1-0. At a price of 53% (-113), the trader banked about $3.71 million profit.

Among the biggest losers: A Polymarket customer put $3 million on Belgium to beat Iran, at a price of 63% (-170 odds). But the two sides played to a 0-0 draw Sunday.

Seven figures down the drain.

Semi-similarly, a Polymarket trader put almost $1 million on Canada to lose or draw in its match vs. Qatar. The Canadians rumbled to a 6-0 victory.

At Kalshi, a trader put $420,000 on England to either lose or draw vs. Croatia on Wednesday. It was 2-2 at halftime, but Three Lions went on to a 4-2 victory. So that’s a mid-six-figure loser.

Day of the Draw

You might recall that last Monday’s slate in World Cup odds ended with four draws. Incredibly, it started with pre-tournament favorite Spain tying 0-0 with huge underdog Cape Verde, a match in which Draw was +1000 or greater at most sportsbooks.

Then Belgium and Egypt played to a 1-1 draw, as did Saudi Arabia and Uruguay. In the day’s finale, Iran vs. New Zealand finished 2-2.

Not many people saw that kind of day coming. But at least one bettor did, at The SuperBook in Las Vegas.

The customer put a mere 10 bucks on a four-leg draw parlay, at odds of a hefty +98146, or just beyond 981/1. At day’s end, that $10 exploded into nearly $10,000 profit.

On the flip side, a FanDuel Sportsbook customer was content cashing out with 46 times more than the person wagered. The bettor had $10 on all four matches ending in a draw, at odds of +116069 (about 1161/1).

After two matches, however, the bettor was offered and accepted a cashout of $456. That’s mighty fine ROI on a $10 investment.

But undoubtedly, the bettor would take a do-over if possible. If the customer had waited it out, the payday would’ve been $11,606.90.

Oof.

Parlay Partay, Part II

At Hard Rock Bet, a customer plunked down $26,000 on a three-leg parlay last week, covering two Monday matches and a Tuesday match.

The bettor needed and got a draw in Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay, 1-1. The second leg had New Zealand +0.5 goals vs. Iran, meaning the Kiwis needed a win or a draw. As noted above, that match finished 2-2.

The third leg of France -1.5, though, was a huge sweat. Six minutes into injury time, the French led 2-1, and it seemed that was where the match would end.

But Mbappé then struck to make it 3-1, which made a massive winner of this wager. At odds just beyond 19/1, the bettor banked nearly half-a-mill in profit, for a total payout of $522,114.

Speaking of Mbappé, he was part of a Tuesday in which three of the game’s most prolific scorers were on the pitch. And all three — Mbappé, Messi and Norway’s Erling Haaland — were all over parlays from the public betting masses.

At Fanatics Sportsbook, a customer put $40 on a three-leg ticket of each player scoring two or more goals. Mbappé and Halland had two apiece, and Messi capped the day with a hat trick vs. Algeria.

At odds of +16260 (almost 163/1), that 40 bucks became a healthy $6,544.

There were countless more parlays such as that at sportsbooks across the country, along with parlays of each of those players to score the first goal of each match, which they also did.

Here’s Hoping You Had It

You don’t have to wager four, five or six figures to get yourself a nice win. For all us normies, just getting 10 bucks down at, say, 10/1 or 15/1 makes for a great day.

Or even 30/1.

That was the case if you wagered on Alex Freeman to score the first goal of the USA’s match vs. Australia on Friday. At DraftKings Sportsbook, Freeman was +3000 to be the first goalscorer.

The son of former Packers wideout Antonio Freeman didn’t get the match’s first goal. Rather, the U.S. went up 1-0 on a deflection off an Aussie player. But that was officially designated as an own goal and therefore not counted as the first goalscorer.

However, in the 43rd minute, again off a deflection, Freeman out-leapt Australia keeper Patrick Beach to head the ball in at the goal line. That made Freeman the first — and only — goalscorer in what ended up a 2-0 USA victory.

If you’d put a tenner on Freeman, then you’d have an extra $300 in your wallet.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, Messi was +3300 to record a hat trick vs. Algeria. The Argentinian icon did just that with goals in the 17th, 60th and 76th minutes.

Ten bucks would’ve profited $330. If you’d gotten frisky and put down $100, then you’d be sitting on $3,300 profit.

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

There are countless more notable transactions on World Cup odds, be they on matches or in futures markets. Once again, a trade on prediction markets is among the most notable: $1.05 million on defending champion Argentina to win the World Cup.

If Messi & Co. lift a second straight trophy, then the trader banks about $9.5 million profit (total payout $10.5 million).

Other noteworthy plays:

• $220,000 Japan -235 vs. Tunisia (Caesars Sports). The Japanese drilled Tunisia 4-0, and the bettor profited $97,872 (total payout $327,872).
• $65,000 South Korea +310 vs. Mexico (Station Sports). The South Koreans put up a good fight on Mexico’s home turf, but lost 1-0. So that’s a mid-five-figure donation to the house.
• $50,000 Netherlands -150 vs. Sweden/Germany -200 vs. Ivory Coast (Hard Rock). The two-leg parlay saw Netherlands roll 5-1 and Germany win 2-1, netting $75,000 profit (total payout $125,000)
• $50,000 England +800 to win the World Cup (Caesars). If Three Lions gets their first crown since 1966, then the bettor banks $400,000 profit (total payout $450,000).

And although it’s not a World Cup wager, you’ve got to applaud a DraftKings customer who bagged a massive $4 million win on the U.S. Open.

The bettor ponied up $100,000 on Wyndham Clark +4000. There was plenty of late drama Sunday, but Clark ultimately went wire-to-wire, leading after every round.

That bet and many more listed above offer a good chance to remind: These customers generally have the means to take on seemingly such inane risk.

You and I? Not so much.

So keep your wagers and your expectations reasonable as the World Cup rolls on.

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