Analyzing Argentina's Historic Comeback vs. Egypt From a Betting Perspective

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FOX Sports Research

For nearly 80 minutes, it looked like the defending world champions were heading home.

Argentina trailed Egypt 2-0 entering the 78th minute of its Round of 16 match, with Lionel Messi having already missed a first-half penalty and live betting markets pricing La Albiceleste as massive underdogs.

But in a stunning finish, Argentina scored three unanswered goals in a 13-minute span to complete one of the greatest comebacks in FIFA World Cup history, and one of the biggest live betting turnarounds ever seen in sports.

Egypt stunned Argentina early when Yasser Ibrahim scored a header in the 15th minute, marking the first time Argentina had trailed in a World Cup match since its opening game of the 2022 tournament against Saudi Arabia.

Argentina had a chance to respond before halftime, but Messi’s penalty was saved, allowing Egypt to take a lead into the half. The Pharaohs then doubled their lead in the 67th minute via a Mostafa Ziko counterattack goal. With just over 10 minutes remaining, the defending champions looked like they were heading for an early exit.

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Until everything changed.

Cristian Romero scored in the 79th minute, finishing a Messi assist to cut the deficit to one. Four minutes later, Messi delivered the equalizer himself, sending the match into chaos. Then, in stoppage time, Enzo Fernández completed the miracle, scoring in the 92nd minute to give Argentina an improbable 3-2 victory and send the defending champions into its second straight quarterfinals.

The win was historic in several ways:

According to Opta, Argentina had just a 0.6% chance of winning in 90 minutes just before Cristian Romero made it 2-1.
It was the first time Argentina had ever come back from a two-goal deficit to win a World Cup match.
Argentina became the first team since Belgium’s 3-2 comeback over Japan in the 2018 Round of 16 to erase a two-goal deficit and win a World Cup match in regulation.
Argentina became the first team ever to win a World Cup match in 90 minutes after still trailing by two goals in the 78th minute.
It was also just the fourth time in World Cup knockout-stage history that a team rallied from 2-0 down to win 3-2.

The comeback was just as incredible from a betting perspective.

Before kickoff, Argentina was a heavy favorite at -290 on the moneyline and -750 to advance, while Egypt was +900 to win and +510 to reach the quarters.

By the 78th minute, those odds had completely flipped.

Argentina’s live moneyline climbed as high as +2500 at Caesars Sportsbook, while its odds to advance reached +575. According to Caesars, one bettor placed $200 on Argentina at +2500, cashing a $5,000 win after the historic comeback.

So where does that compare to some of the other greatest comebacks in sports history? While those odds were extraordinary, they still fall just short of the biggest live betting comebacks on record.

One of the largest still remains the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, who trailed the Indianapolis Colts 33-0 at halftime before rallying to win 39-36 in overtime after live odds reached +4000 on DraftKings.

Other legendary betting comebacks include the 2017 New England Patriots overcoming the infamous 28-3 deficit against the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI after reaching roughly +1600-2000 live, and the 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars, who came back from 27-0 against the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round, after being listed around +2500 in-game.

Meanwhile, soccer has produced its share of unforgettable comebacks as well.

Barcelona’s famous "Remontada" against Paris Saint-Germain in the 2017 Champions League reportedly saw live odds to advance climb to around +5000 before three late goals completed the impossible, while Liverpool’s miraculous 2005 Champions League final comeback from 3-0 down against AC Milan carried live odds near +2500 before it eventually lifted the trophy on penalties.

Argentina’s comeback may not top that list numerically, but considering the stage, the defending champions’ elimination hanging in the balance, and the fact all three goals came in a 13-minute period, it will undoubtedly be remembered as one of the greatest betting comebacks in World Cup history.

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