Albert Breer’s Takeaways: Expectations, Best Comp for Arch Manning Looking Ahead to 2027 NFL Draft

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1. Arch Manning
2. Tennessee Titans
3. Brendan Sorsby
4. De’Zhaun Stribling
5. Sonny Styles
6. Fifth-year options
7. Jack Campbell
8. Deshaun Watson
9. 2027 draft class
10. Quick-hitters

With rosters filled up and on-field activities kicking off for all teams soon, the actual 2026 season is on the horizon. Here’s the first takeaways for the month of May …

Arch Manning

For the second consecutive year, Texas QB Arch Manning is atopmock drafts left and right. Now, the thing I don’t want this to be is some sort of referendum on Manning himself. He didn’t ask to be put No. 1 on these lists. He landed there at least in part because he’s a talented kid with the most recognizable name playing the most important position at a big program.

Last year, a week after the draft, we tried tohelp everyone cut through all that.

This year, we’ll try and do it again.

First, the reality of it. At this point in the NFL calendar, it’s unlikely teams have even studied Manning. Teams spent the past few months locked in on the 2026 draft class, so the vast majority of scouts and coaches have seen Manning only on cross tape while evaluating other players or, like you or I have, watching him on TV. Any evaluator will tell you that’s not the same as actually going through the process of studying a player.

That said, I was able to cobble together a few informed opinions, and what I came away with was the picture of a quarterback with a lot of natural ability but is still relatively raw as a passer. The good news is that over the course of his first year as a starter, his redshirt sophomore season, he steadily improved, showing real progress and an ability to learn from his experiences, both the good and bad.

That did show up statistically. Over the Longhorns’ final six games, he threw 14 touchdown passes and was picked off once, and he completed over 60% of his throws but one game, which followed an uneven seven-game start to the season (12 TD passes and six picks, less than 60% completion rate vs. Ohio State, UTEP, Florida and Kentucky).

It also showed on tape to the coaches working against him. He was calmer in the pocket and more patient as plays developed, not bailing as quickly as he did early in the year, and more often keeping his eyes downfield, not dropping them to look at the rush.

“He’s a good quarterback prospect—6’ 4”, athletic, can run, has plus arm talent but not special arm talent, and has improved every year,” said one assistant GM. “The last name is putting the ‘generational’ thing on him, and I don’t think he’s that. His decision-making under duress is still iffy and needs work; he runs hot and cold with his accuracy. He can make pinpoint throws, but consistently misses on in-cuts, digs and slants.

“You’ll bet on the kid because of the pedigree, but he’s not in the Andrew Luck category. How I’d look at it: Luck was freaky smart, a freaky athlete. The floor was extremely high, the failure rate really low. Arch doesn’t have a low floor, but it’s definitely lower than that. And he has a ceiling that could match Luck’s—the true physical ability could match it. But some of the QB-specific play, he’s not there yet.”

Now, this exec did add that, because of the type of kid Manning is, “I’m betting on him maximizing his ability.” And that’s the rub: The character part of the equation is such where it’s easy for anyone to believe the improvement you saw in 2025 will continue.

“The staff [Texas] loves him. He’s sharp, motivated, a great teammate, focused in all areas, he takes care of his body, humble, his family is low maintenance,” said another assistant GM. “He checks all those boxes. He’s a guy’s guy.”

In summary, people can’t wrap their heads around what Arch is. So, they expect to see his uncles, but he’s actually a little more like his grandfather. The 22-year-old is a big, strong athlete who can make plays off-schedule and create chunk plays as a runner, but needs to get more consistent playing on time and within his offense.

And if it all comes together and he gets more consistent throwing the ball, the guys I talked to agreed he could become a Justin Herbert-type prospect, but with a little less arm strength.

“You had to project with Herbert some, but he was a big athlete, a good dude,” said the second assistant GM. “That’s a pretty good comp.”

It could be a pretty good result, too— if not exactly the one a lot of folks are expecting—for some team 12 months from now. But Manning still has some work to do between today and next April to get there.

Tennessee Titans

I think the Titans might finally have things straightened out. That isn’t a shot at now-departed president of football operations Chad Brinker. His departure last week, as I understand it, was more the result of a symptom of what has taken place in Nashville over the last 40 months. Which has basically been Band-Aid after Band-Aid after Band-Aid.

The timeline …

• December 2022: General manager Jon Robinson is fired just 10 months after signing an extension that would have kept him with the team through the 2027 draft. Tennessee was 7-5 and coming off winning the AFC’s top seed in 2021 and making the playoffs for a third straight year. The dismissal happened two days after star receiver A.J. Brown, traded seven months earlier, went for 119 yards and two touchdowns on eight catches against his former team.

• January 2023: The Titans hire 49ers pro scouting director Ran Carthon as GM and bring in Brinker from Green Bay to be his assistant GM.

• January 2024: The Titans fire Mike Vrabel as head coach and leapfrog Brinker over Carthon, naming him president of football operations. Brinker then leads a coaching search that ends with the hire of Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan.

• January 2025: The Titans fire Carthon and restructure again. In the revised setup, Callahan and the new GM would report to Brinker, and the GM would lead free agency and the draft, but Brinker would retain final say over the 53-man roster. Brinker then leads a GM search that leads to the hire of Chiefs assistant GM Mike Borgonzi.

• October 2025: The Titans fire Callahan after a loss in Las Vegas in which a large contingent of controlling owner Amy Adams Strunk’s family was in attendance. Mike McCoy is named interim coach.

• January 2026: The Titans restructure yet again, with control over the 53-man roster handed over to Borgonzi, who is reporting directly to Strunk, with the new coach reporting to Borgonzi. Borgonzi then leads the search that results in 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh being ushered in as the new head coach.

• May 2026: Brinker resigns.

The story all this tells is one of scattershot decision-making, failed hiring processes and a general lack of vision for an organization. A lot of it lands at the feet of Strunk, and we’ve been over that plenty here the last few years. But looking forward? There’s reason for hope …

Borgonzi has stocked his personnel department with ex-GMs (assistant GM Dave Ziegler and VP/football advisor Reggie McKenzie) and guys on the rise (VP of player personnel Dan Saganey and director of player personnel Jon Salge, the one holdover from past regimes at that level). Meanwhile, Saleh has former head coaches Brian Daboll and Gus Bradley as coordinators and veteran assistant John Fassel running his special teams.

That doesn’t mean Brinker won’t leave a void. There’s some rearranging to do on the operations side, and there certainly could be an addition or two. And the process of aligning all of it is still ongoing.

But this feels like the Titans’ brass is in lockstep for the first time in a long time, now possessing an experienced front office and field crew. The hope is the class they just drafted is in line with that and the 2026 season will be, l too.

Brendan Sorsby

The NFL doesn’t have much choice but to start to consider Brendan Sorsby’s case now. Last week, Texas Tech announced the fifth-year quarterback was entering a residential treatment program for a gambling addiction. ESPN reported that Sorsby was found to have placed thousands of wagers through a gambling app, including bets placed on Indiana while he was on the Hoosiers roster in 2022 and ‘23. The NCAA is investigating the case.

Under revised guidelines sparked by the rise of legalized sports gambling, any athlete who wagers on sports at his or her school faces a permanent loss of his or her eligibility.

The latest development in the case came over the weekend, with Sorsby and Tech assembling an all-star legal team headed by famed labor lawyer Jeffrey Kessler, who has been a bit of a bogeyman for the NFL, NCAA and other sports leagues, having represented unions through strikes and lockouts. My understanding is the school is as lawyered up as Sorsby in an attempt to save its $6 million NIL deal to have Sorsby quarterback its football team in the fall.

Now, the twist: I don’t think the intention here is necessarily to sue the NCAA into oblivion, as it might appear. As I’ve heard it, the idea is for the legal team, at least for now, to accelerate the process of negotiating a settlement. Sorsby wants to play in the fall, and obviously Tech wants him badly. So Kessler (and associates) will be working to see if they can broker a deal where Sorsby would accept a suspension but be able to play at least part of the season.

But there’s a pretty decent chance that, even though they’ve backed down in a mess of legal fights with players in recent years, this would be a case in which the NCAA draws a line in the sand. Then Sorsby would have to make a decision on whether to go through a legal fight that would be tough to win, given how cut and dried the rules are and the evidence in the case seems to be, or just apply for entry to the NFL supplemental draft.

The NFL’s rough deadline to apply is June 30, eight weeks from tomorrow. Over the course of this decade, the supplemental draft has been rendered largely obsolete because NIL and the transfer portal have created more options, and more attractive options, to stay in college for guys who have to fight to regain eligibility. Only two guys have applied for the supplemental draft since 2020—Purdue WR Milton Wright and Jackson State WR Malachi Nelson entered in 2023 but went undrafted—and the last time a player was selected was in 2019.

That player, for what it’s worth, was safety Jalen Thompson, who lost his eligibility over an NCAA violation (for buying a banned supplement) and has become a very good NFL player, having just signed a three-year, $36 million deal with the Cowboys after seven seasons in Arizona.

Thompson is an example of the long-standing precedent of the supplemental draft being a safe harbor for players who don’t have options. We’ve seen guys approved for entry after NCAA violations (Terrelle Pryor), positive drug tests (Josh Gordon) and academic failings. They all get in because the NFL, as a trade association, really can’t deny a guy employment. It must leave it up to its companies—the teams in this case— to assess each case.

That said, this could get sticky for the league given all the business it’s doing in the gambling space. Would the NFL try to do what it did to Pryor and suspend Sorsby upon entry to ensure that guys who might get in trouble for betting can’t just head for the league scot-free? Maybe. Whatever the answer is, the league will need to get its ducks in a row quickly because Sorsby’s camp is working to speed this whole thing up and get to a conclusion as fast as possible.

And that conclusion, as we wrote last week, might come with a team flipping a Top 50 in next year’s draft for the chance to bring the talented gunslinger aboard in July.

De’Zhaun Stribling

The 49ers weren’t flying blind with their selection of De’Zhaun Stribling with the first pick in the second round of the draft. Let’s start here: If you would have asked me before the draft began when I thought the Ole Miss receiver would be drafted, I’d have guessed he’d go 35th to the Titans.

At that point, of course, I didn’t know Tennessee would take Carnell Tate fourth; I had them selecting LB Arvell Reese at 4 (their decision was between those two). And in an alternate reality in which Reese goes at 4, I believe Stribling would’ve been a real consideration at 35.

That didn’t happen, but it’s an example of how Stribling was more highly thought of than the public knew. I got more proof of that prior to Day 2 of the draft, when a few coaches brought him up to me.

And the truth is, for San Francisco, getting there on him was a process. Going into the final two weeks before the draft, the Niners viewed him as a really good talent, and probably a late second- or early third-round pick. That’s around when GM John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan started drilling down on prospects together.

They saw a big receiver who ran 4.36 at the combine. They saw a player who came on late, starring in the playoffs, and talked to ex-Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, who conceded he was late to the party on Stribling, which limited him a bit early in the year, and that his offensive coordinator, Charlie Weis Jr., saw a special talent right away. They then went back deeper into his tape from Oklahoma State and saw more in-breaking routes, and Washington State, where they saw him star in the screen game. A more complete picture was coalescing.

They also knew he probably wasn’t going in the first round.

Meanwhile, there was a cluster of players they felt comfortable taking with the 27th pick, and they made the decision that if that pool of guys was drained by the time they got on the clock, trading down would be the right move. So the days before the draft, Lynch worked out terms on a trade down to 30 with Dolphins GM Jon-Eric Sullivan on the contingency that the players they were considering were gone.

When they got on the clock, the aforementioned pool was empty, so they dealt the pick to Miami, who moved up to select San Diego State CB Chris Johnson. Then, ahead of getting on the clock at 30, they looked at Stribling, and figured one more move down would make sense.

So San Francisco traded with the Jets, who moved up to select Indiana WR Omar Cooper Jr., and landed at the top of the second round. The Niners fielded calls at that catbird seat of 33, but the prices weren’t quite right and there was enough concern that other teams saw Stribling like they did, so Lynch and Shanahan pushed the button.

The Niners had gotten themselves to a point where they didn’t want to lose Stribling at 33. Every year, they designate certain prospects who check every box from an athletic, football and character standpoint as “gold helmet” players. This year, they had 16 gold helmets, and Stribling was one of them. In addition, Shanahan’s vision for Stribling in his offense was crystal-clear, both in the short and the long term.

To me, this is the sort of case you see closer to the draft every year, where a quiet drumbeat grows on a player and they wind up going before the public expects them to. Johnson, who went in the Niners’ original slot, is an example of that, as is Dallas’ second first-round pick, UCF edge rusher Malachi Lawrence.

Time will tell whether Stribling is a reach. For now, I know the Niners feel pretty good about getting him.

Sonny Styles

In a draft in which the non-premium positions may have boasted the best players, the kinds of guys Jeremiyah Love, Sonny Styles and Caleb Downs were really mattered. And mostly, as I see it, because if you were going to swing on a running back or pure off-the-ball linebacker or safety, you’d want to know the pick was a safe one.

So what does that mean? I figured I’d take a closer look at one of those guys this week to explain it.

We’re going to use Styles—who went seventh overall to the Commanders—as the example, and he’s a really good one because of how rare it has become for a guy at his position to go that high. He’s the first pure off-ball linebacker drafted among the top 15 picks in the 2020s, and he’s just the sixth (Isaiah Simmons, Devin White, Devin Bush, Roquan Smith, Luke Kuechly) to go in the top 10 since the rookie salary scale was instituted with the 2011 CBA.

Here, then, are the keys to the Commanders getting comfortable with a big, long, rangy linebacker that looks like he was made in a lab to play in Dan Quinn’s defense …

• The length of the track record: Washington GM Adam Peters’ awareness of Styles goes all the way back to Styles’ freshman year, when he was at an Ohio State game as a 49ers exec with an area scout, who simply said to him, “That’s Sonny Styles,” as if everyone should know who he was. That’s the sort of recruit Styles was, arriving at age 17 after graduating high school a year early, even at a school chock full of blue-chippers. Styles became a starter the next year, in what would’ve been his true freshman season, and his first of three years starting. Peters took a mental note of the tall, lanky, big-framed defender.

• The upside: Styles’ first year starting was at safety, giving evaluators a look at his versatility and natural ability in coverage. The move to linebacker didn’t happen until 2024, and how he took to the position the last two years showed his adaptability, and also underscores that he’s just scratching the surface in that spot.

• The NFL translation: Peters and Ohio State DC Matt Patricia were coworkers two decades ago in New England and they talked a lot over the last few months, and Patricia told the GM what an incredible communicator, teammate and person Styles was. Patricia’s pro-style scheme also gave Quinn and new DC Daronte Jones (who worked under ex-Patricia colleague Brian Flores in Minnesota) a real look on tape at how Styles would fit into an NFL defense.

• The teammate: At the combine, the Commanders interviewed all 11 Ohio State invitees, and the other 10 all brought Styles up as one of the guys they’d want to bring to the NFL with them. How strong fellow first-rounders Tate, Reese and Downs were on Styles really said to the Commanders that he was very much the guy on the 2025 team.

• The football IQ: Their meetings with Styles through the process only confirmed that he was the alpha—showing elite football intelligence, knowledge of the scheme inside and out and an ability to explain not just his role in the way things played out on tape, but his teammates’ responsibilities too.

• The background: At the pro day in March, the Commanders got to see where Styles is from, with his entire family and his girlfriend in attendance.

• The person: At the Top Golf 30 visit that the Commanders do, he stood out again, mingling well with scouts, coaches and support staff—asking questions of everyone with humility and a very clear effort to try and use the day as a chance to get better. Linebackers coaches Ken Norton and George Banko loved him to the point where everyone joked that Norton was so engaged with Styles that he wasn’t going to let anyone else talk to him.

As you might imagine, after all that, the pick actually became relatively easy. And, indeed, because Styles doesn’t play a premium position, the Commanders were going to have to feel pretty good about him all the way around. Which, clearly, with all the above combined, they did.

Fifth-year options

The number of fifth-year options went up again, which says something. Part of it is, for sure, that the 2023 first round was a relatively strong one. But it’s more than just that—as part of a trend since the options became fully guaranteed in the collective bargaining agreement of 2020.

The numbers …

• 2023: 13 (2020 first-rounders)

• 2024: 18 (2021 first-rounders)

• 2025: 19 (2022 first-rounders)

• 2026: 22 (2023 first-rounders)

So the low number to begin with, as I see it, is due to a combination of a rough first round littered with character risk (that was the COVID-19 draft), and a natural hesitancy to guarantee money a year out in the first year after the changes. From there, I think teams have become more comfortable with the guarantees, and the classes to follow 2020 were better, too.

But the reality is also that these have become good deals for teams.

Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s fifth-year option was set at $23.9 million. He did an extension thereafter at $41.25 million per year in new money. Texans DE Will Anderson Jr.’s fifth-year option was set at $21.5 million, and he did an extension with a new-money APY of $50 million. The gap from one number to the next illustrates the bargain the option was for Seattle and Houston, and its value in some cases with even just a good player.

And that’s why …

Jack Campbell

The Lions declined the linebacker’s fifth-year option. I heard from some people last week that Detroit’s inability to pick up Campbell’s option needs to be a referendum on how off-ball linebackers are categorized.

I’m calling BS on that.

As background, what’s happening with Campbell now is similar to what happened with Tyler Linderbaum last year. The Ravens couldn’t pick up Linderbaum’s option because offensive linemen are grouped together in the formula, meaning his number was based on tackle contracts, not center contracts, the same way Campbell’s number is based on edge rushers categorized as linebackers because they’re in two-point stances at the line.

The result for Linderbaum was that the Ravens couldn’t tag him this year for the same reason they couldn’t pick up his option last year, and as result he blew up the market at his position with the three-year, $81 million deal he signed with the Raiders. Campbell, a first-year All-Pro last year in Detroit, could have a similar freeway to the market in 2027.

And this is somehow … a bad thing?

I understand people look at it through the eyes of teams. Most folks are fans, and it sucks to see a good player leave, especially when a detail in a rule such as this hastens the departure. But if you feel for the teams in these situations, do you feel for Anderson having to take that low number and fold it into his contract extension? Or JSN having to do the same?

The reality is most rules don’t work in the players’ favor. Tight ends who are basically used as big receivers don’t get the receiver tag number. Tight ends who are more well-rounded get screwed worse. Safeties aren’t grouped with corners, keeping their numbers down. The rules, in a lot of ways, work great for the teams.

That a couple don’t should not be a reason for anyone to cry foul.

Deshaun Watson

Starting the season with Deshaun Watson at quarterback would make sense for the Browns. You know what would be even worse than trading for Watson, then signing him to a lucrative deal in 2022? Doing that, then seeing him go ball out somewhere else in 2027.

I’m not saying it’s likely that happens. But at this point, the Browns are in for three first-round picks and $230 million on Watson. They’ve been through four offensive coordinators and two head coaches over his five years. So, as I see it, they owe it to themselves to find out.

That’s why I wasn’t surprised at all when Cleveland Plain Dealer vet Mary Kay Cabot reported last week that Watson has the inside track to becoming Todd Monken’s first starter as an NFL head coach.

There’s a reason why the Browns did what they did to get him. He has demonstrated history as a top five-ish quarterback in the league. I’d say the odds he gets back there are probably better than those of fifth-round or third-round picks from last year—and that’s no affront to Shedeur Sanders or Dillon Gabriel.

And giving Watson a run just to make sure wouldn’t be one to either of those guys. It’d be pretty easy to turn to Sanders if it doesn’t work. If you go the other way and start Sanders, you probably aren’t going to Watson thereafter.

Bottom line, I can see why Jimmy Haslam, Andrew Berry and Monken would just want to make sure, once and for all, that the old Watson isn’t still in there somewhere.

I would, too.

2027 draft class

I got a quick reminder on why 2027 picks have been treated like gold. Yes, it’s because there’s a chance that a handful of quarterbacks are deemed worthy of going in the first dozen or so picks. And yes, it’s because of the fleet of top premium-position prospects—Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith, Texas DE Colin Simmons, South Carolina DE Dylan Stewart and Notre Dame CB Leonard Moore—that should be available.

But it’s also because of the promise that you’ll have a lot of solid prospects that’ll be going, say, 15th instead of fifth, 20th instead of 10th or 30th instead of 20th.

That’s because, essentially, the presence of all those top guys means there’s a likelihood that more really good, but perhaps not great, players will be pushed down the board. That’s why it makes sense that no 2027 first-round picks have been dealt this offseason—and why the Jets look pretty sharp for stockpiling three ahead of time the way they did.

Quick-hitters

With the quiet(er) part of the offseason upon us, we’ve got some quick-hitting takeaways for you to wrap up the week. Let’s go …

• While on the topic of Manning, I did ask around on Oregon’s Dante Moore. It seems pretty clear as it stands now among teams that he’s the top guy going into the 2026 college season. He actually may not have the ceiling Manning does, but at this point, he’s much more consistent as a passer. We’ll see if he holds the lead through next April.

• FWIW, I don’t think big outlets avoiding talking about the Mike Vrabel situation is helping anyone involved. If responsible voices aren’t discussing it, and the public still has a thirst for the story (which it clearly does), that creates a vacuum that less responsible voices are more than happy to leap into. I think that has contributed to the circus.

• While we’re on the Patriots, I really do like the move up to get Utah OT Caleb Lomu. He has real high-end potential and gives them the flexibility to move Will Campbell from the left tackle spot if need be. For now, the plan is for him to get his work in at right tackle behind Morgan Moses while the coaches determine who is their best five to have out there.

• Diego Pavia has provided a good example of why guys coming into the league must be very careful with their words. Teams’ tolerance for that sort of stuff is all relative to a player’s talent, and if the feel is a guy doesn’t have a lot (which is how most see Pavia), then social-media missives like the one Pavia fired off during the draft can be really damaging.

• Good to see the DK Metcalf-vs.-Lions fan story is coming to an end. That one didn’t make anyone look good.

• Jeff Stoutland’s honesty over his view of last year’s Eagles offense only underlines the issues that existed last year in Philly. It’s also the risk with patchworking staffs together like the Eagles have the last few years. Sometimes it leads to having an all-star team of coaches, like Philly did in 2024. Other times, it looks like 2025 (or 2023).

• If this is it for Russell Wilson, here’s wishing him the best in his next chapter, which looks like it’ll be in television. Say what you will, Wilson’s success opened the door to people bending the rules of evaluating quarterbacks, which wound helping guys like Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray down the line.

• The George Pickens thing ain’t complicated. He arrived in Dallas with baggage. He walked the straight-and-narrow for a year. The Cowboys want to see another year of that before investing in another receiver at the highest level.

• Washington’s interest in Brandon Aiyuk would get my attention if I were another team, because Peters was with him in San Francisco.

• Finally, remember, we’re still a month out from the point in the calendar when Aaron Rodgers signed with the Steelers last year. And I think similar to last year, the mandatory veteran minicamp is a logical deadline for a decision if you’re Pittsburgh. It was important to Mike Tomlin that Rodgers be in by then last year. You’d think it’d be maybe even moreso this year with Mike McCarthy in his first year, and putting in a system that Rodgers is very familiar with.

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Add us as a preferred source on GoogleFollowPublished just now | Modified just nowALBERT BREER

Albert Breer is a senior writer covering the NFL for Sports Illustrated, delivering the biggest stories and breaking news from across the league. He has been on the NFL beat since 2005 and joined SI in 2016. Breer began his career covering the New England Patriots for the MetroWest Daily News and the Boston Herald from 2005 to ’07, then covered the Dallas Cowboys for the Dallas Morning News from 2007 to ’08. He worked for The Sporting News from 2008 to ’09 before returning to Massachusetts as The Boston Globe’s national NFL writer in 2009. From 2010 to 2016, Breer served as a national reporter for NFL Network. In addition to his work at Sports Illustrated, Breer regularly appears on NBC Sports Boston, 98.5 The Sports Hub in Boston, FS1 with Colin Cowherd, The Rich Eisen Show and The Dan Patrick Show. A 2002 graduate of Ohio State, Breer lives near Boston with his wife, a cardiac ICU nurse at Boston Children’s Hospital, and their three children.

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