Jul 23, 2026, 06:46 AM ETOpen Extended Reactions
The Denver Broncos opened the 2025 season with 12-1 odds to win the AFC and at +275 to win the AFC West. Those odds lengthened to 18-1 and +600, respectively, in late September after the Broncos opened the season 1-2.
But the Chiefs started spiraling, Denver swept Kansas City and ended up losing just one more game the rest of the way, tying the Patriots and Broncos for the best record in the NFL.
Interestingly, the Broncos only covered seven of 17 games last season, the worst mark out of the 12 teams with double-digit wins. Denver has cleared its win total by 4.5 games in consecutive seasons and is poised for another winning season, although a competitive division race likely means some regression is coming. — Kevin Pulsifer
Note: Odds by DK Sports
and subject to change.
2026 outlook: Tough division, tough path to 10 wins
After seven straight losing seasons from 2017-2023, the Broncos have put together back-to-back 10-plus win seasons under the tutelage of Sean Payton. Coming off a 14-win season, their over/under on their 2026 total comes in at just 9.5. They landed WR Jaylen Waddle in the offseason, but they added very little premier talent through the draft after not having a first- or second-round selection (their first pick was 66th overall, in the third round).
One of the bigger question marks surrounding the Broncos is who they're up against in their division. If a recovering Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs struggle to find their footing early in the season or the Justin Herbert-led Chargers stumble out of the gate, the Broncos could be in prime position to take command of the AFC West. However, this roster isn’t really full of top-end talent. And while the defense has its share of quality players, the offensive side of the ball has question marks around the maturation of Bo Nix and what this receiving corps can be following the recent investments in Waddle and Courtland Sutton. The 9.5 number doesn’t leave much margin for error, so while there’s an expectation for Denver to make the playoffs, there’s no guarantee we don’t see regression in 2026, making this a tough line to feel comfortable with. — Daniel Dopp
Best bet: Bo Nix over 24.5 passing TDs (-105)
Nix topped this number in both his rookie and sophomore seasons, so his line being set at 24.5 scores seems low. The additional pass-catching help with Waddle in the mix should only bolster his chances of hitting this number. With another year in Payton's system under his belt and additional weapons at his disposal, and given the upside of the 26-year-old signal-caller, I'm going with the over. — Dopp
