Table of Contents
Fantasy 101: Fab's favorite scoring system | Why to play in a PPR league | How to use ADP to your advantage | Beginner's guide | Dictionary | Snake draft strategies| Punishments for last-place teams
Stats. They can be tricky to interpret, especially in the world of fantasy football.
Case in point … let’s jump in the wayback machine and travel to 2022, when Miles Sanders rushed for more than 1,200 yards, scored 11 total touchdowns and ranked 15th in points among running backs. Not bad, right? Well, what if I told you Sanders scored fewer than 12 points in 10 of 17 games (59%), and 41% of his points came in just three games that year?
Suddenly he didn't look quite as good … and that played out in his lack of success in 2023.
With that in mind, I dove into the 2025 numbers and picked out 25 nuggets you need to know before you draft your 2026 fantasy football teams. Some deal with false perceptions of players (like Sanders in 2022), while others indicate how a coaching change did and could affect future player outcomes. Yet others discuss player personnel moves and how they will affect player performance.
So sit back, relax, read and keep these nuggets in mind when you draft!
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Mahomes averaged more than 20 points per game last season, but that comes with a caveat. It should be noted that he posted career highs in rushing yards (422) and rushing touchdowns (5) despite missing the final three games. In fact,21% of his fantasy points came as a runner. That percentage was never more than 15 in his previous four years.
Now, coming off a serious knee injury and with the addition of Kenneth Walker III, it’s hard to expect Mahomes to post similar rushing totals in 2026. Also, he hasn’t been an elite fantasy quarterback since 2022, so don’t fall for the “name value” he still brings in drafts … Mahomes is no longer a high-end option.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
Lawrence is coming off his best season as a pro, as he averaged nearly 20 fantasy points per game and finished fourth in points among quarterbacks. However, he rushed for a career-high 359 yards and nine touchdowns. That’s more rushing scores than he had in his previous two years combined! When you look at the list of quarterbacks who have rushed for at least nine touchdowns in a season since 2000, of which there are only eight (Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Cam Newton, Kyler Murray, Mike Vick, Daunte Culpepper), Lawrence looks like a complete outlier.
(Note: Jaxson Dart is also on this list, but he has just one year of sample size).
Brock Purdy, 49ers
Purdy finished just 23rd among quarterbacks in fantasy points a season ago, but his 19.7 points-per-game average was sixth among field generals who had a minimum of nine starts. In fact, he averaged more points than guys like Caleb Williams, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson! Yet Purdy is going off the board as the QB14 with an ADP of 97 overall. If you’re looking for a potential fantasy draft bargain at the position, Purdy is a terrific option.
Jacoby Brissett, Cardinals
Brissett is coming off his best season as a pro, throwing for 3,366 yards and 23 touchdowns in 12 starts. In fact, he was the QB6 from Week 6 through Week 18, scoring more points than Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes. Let’s be honest, though… that’s simply not going to happen again in 2026. In fact, Brissett’s 16.3 points-per-game average from a year ago is a career best; he hadn’t averaged more than 10.5 points in his previous five years. If you’re thinking Brissett could be a huge steal in your drafts, you might want to re-think that.
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions
Lions coach Dan Campbell said earlier this offseason that Gibbs will be the team’s bell cow in 2026. He also said, “We’re going to hang our hat on him.” The Lions traded David Montgomery to Houston this offseason, so let’s look at what his absence means for Gibbs. DM averaged 15.7 touches per game in 2024, but that total dropped to 10.7 touches per game last season.
Montgomery also had single-digit touches in eight of his 17 games. In those eight games, Gibbs averaged 23.8 PPG (he scored 55.4 points in one game). That’s 4.2 more points per game than he averaged in games that Montgomery had 10-plus touches. Clearly, if Campbell is true to his word (don’t worry about Isiah Pacheco), Gibbs is well worth the No. 1 overall pick in 2026.
Jonathan Taylor, Colts
Taylor scored 20 touchdowns last season, tying his previous career high in 2021. Following that 2021 season, Taylor saw his touchdown total decline by 16, as he played just 11 games due to injuries. His points-per-game average also fell from 21.9 down to a mere 13.3. Also keep in mind that no running back has scored 20 or more touchdowns more than twice in their career—not that I don't think he’ll score 20 touchdowns again, but it’s still notable. Taking that a step further, backs who have scored at least 18 touchdowns in a year since 2012 have seen their scoring total drop by around eight touchdowns, on average, the following season.
I’m not saying JT will bust, but regression is imminent.
Derrick Henry, Ravens
Henry continues to defy Father Time, finishing eighth in fantasy points among running backs last season at age 31. It should be noted, however, that he scored 14 or fewer points in 10 of his 17 games (59%), and 17% of his points came in just two games. And while Henry has proven to be a statistical unicorn, only two running backs (Walter Payton, John Riggins) have scored more than 250 fantasy points in a season at age 32 or older in NFL history. Those are also the lone running backs to rush for more than 1,121 yards at that age, and only Riggins, Ottis Anderson, and Jerome Bettis have ever rushed for 14 or more touchdowns at age 32 or older.
Josh Jacobs, Packers
Jacobs has long been a fantasy star, but he wasn’t the same player last season that he was previously. He averaged 3.97 yards per carry—his second-lowest total in the last five years—and his point-per-game average dropped by 1.4 from the previous season. He also failed to score more than 14.4 points in eight of his 15 games (53%), and Jacobs’ Rushing Yards Over Expected was minus-7, 96th among running backs. That’s down from +217 in 2024 (4th). Finally, only Henry (2,662) is entering the 2026 season with more career rushing attempts than Jacobs (1,840). Buyer beware.
Cam Skattebo, Giants
Skattebo posted 617 scrimmage yards, seven touchdowns and 127.7 fantasy points as a rookie despite missing nine games due to an ankle fracture. In six games in which he played at least 35 snaps, he averaged 23.4 touches and 19.1 points with a touch share of nearly 38%. During that same time, Tyrone Tracy Jr. had a modest 15.6% touch share. In that five-game span, Cam was the RB6, behind only Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson and De’Von Achane. He’s expected to be ready for the start of the regular season, and the Giants should again allow Skattebo a chance to bust out as their leading runner in 2026.
Bucky Irving, Buccaneers
Irving, who is coming off a disappointing 2025 campaign, saw his Rushing Yards Over Expected (186 to -28) and Rushing Expected Points Added (+14.4 to +10.8) both decline compared to his rookie year. That season, 35% of his total fantasy points came on catches and receiving yards.
Last season, 55% of Irving’s total points came on catches, yards and touchdown catches. That percentage seems destined to decline in 2026, as the Buccaneers added Kenneth Gainwell, who had 73 catches for the Steelers last season, to the backfield mix. So while Irving did see a 41.2% touch share in his 10 games in 2025, his receiving ceiling is likely to take a hit.
D’Andre Swift, Bears
Swift was quietly a serviceable No. 2 fantasy running back last season, finishing 15th in points and averaging nearly five yards per rush. However, fans should take note that Swift averaged 16.9 touches per game in the first seven games while Kyle Monangai saw an average of just 6.9 touches. Over their final 10 games, however, Swift averaged 15.4 touches while Monangai’s total swelled to 13.9 touches. Bears head coach Ben Johnson has certainly had success using multiple backs in the past (see Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery in Detroit), so don’t be surprised to see closer to a 50-50 split between Swift and Monangai in the Bears' backfield this season.
RJ Harvey, Broncos
Harvey showed flashes of fantasy potential in his rookie season, scoring 16-plus fantasy points in six of his final 10 games. However, most of his success came without J.K. Dobbins in the mix. In the first 10 weeks with Dobbins playing, Harvey averaged 7.5 touches. It was only when Dobbins went down due to injury that Harvey’s touch total increased to nearly 17 per game. The Broncos decided to retain Dobbins and they drafted Jonah Coleman for added depth, so don’t be fooled by Harvey’s late rookie-season stats … at best, he’ll be in a committee with Dobbins in 2026.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson, Vikings
In Jefferson’s first five seasons in the NFL, playing with an assortment of quarterbacks (mostly Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold), he never averaged fewer than 17.1 points per game in a season. What’s more, he averaged 19-plus points three times and was an elite fantasy wide receiver across the board. Last season, in 10 games with J.J. McCarthy under center, Jefferson averaged 11 points. That’s an 8.4-point-per-game decline compared to his previous five years, all without McCarthy. With Kyler Murray expected to become Minnesota’s starting quarterback in 2026, however, look for Jefferson to return to his far more productive play, both in real and fantasy football.
George Pickens, Cowboys
Pickens broke out last season, finishing fifth in fantasy points among wide receivers. It should be noted, however, that he was far more productive in games CeeDee Lamb didn't play. In those three contests, Pickens had 19 catches (6.3 PG), 359 yards (119.7 PG), four touchdowns (1.3 PG), and averaged 26.3 fantasy points. In 14 games with Lamb active, he posted 74 catches (5.3 PG), 1,070 yards (76.4 PG), five touchdowns (0.36 PG), and averaged 15.2 PPG. So he averaged one fewer catch, 43.4 fewer yards, around one fewer touchdown, and 11.1 fewer points with Lamb active. As long as Lamb stays healthy, Pickens will likely see some level of regression.
Emeka Egbuka, Buccaneers
Egbuka looked like he was going to break out as a rookie, scoring 20-plus fantasy points in three of his first five games. The wheels fell off after that, though, as he scored double digits just twice the rest of the season. That was due to the healthy returns of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan, not to mention a nagging hamstring injury he suffered in Week 6. With Evans and his 9.3 targets-per-game average now in San Francisco, however, Egbuka is likely to become the top option in Tampa Bay’s pass attack. He’ll be a popular breakout candidate.
Jaylen Waddle, Broncos
In Waddle’s first four games of last season, all played with Tyreek Hill, he averaged 5.8 targets and 11.9 fantasy points. In his final 12 games, all without Hill, Waddle averaged 6.4 targets and 12.2 points. So Waddle averaged just 0.6 more targets and 0.3 more points per game when he became the top option in Miami’s pass attack. Now in Denver, he joins a crowded wide receiver room that has two players (Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin) who averaged more than six targets per game in 2025. Waddle, who hasn’t averaged more than 12.1 fantasy points per game since 2023, is unlikely to see much of a boost in value despite playing in a far better Denver offense.
Jameson Williams, Lions
If you’re into volatility, Williams is the wideout for you. In 2025, he scored single digits (including two zeroes) seven times. He also posted a few huge games, finishing with 16-plus points eight times. Overall, his 12.9 points-per-game average wasn’t much better than a player like Quentin Johnston’s (12.2 PPG), yet the difference in their early ADP data (54 spots) is astounding. If you project Williams as more than a flex player, you’re likely taking him far too high in drafts.
DJ Moore, Bills
Moore’s metrics aren’t all that attractive as he enters his age-29 season, but his success under new head coach Joe Brady should still be noted. In two years together in Carolina while Brady was the offensive coordinator, Moore averaged a combined 14 points per game. In 2020, he put up what remains a career-best 1,215 yards in the offense. Then, in 2021, Moore had 93 catches. A 14-point-per-game campaign last year would have ranked Moore 14th among wide receivers who played a minimum of nine games, yet he’s being picked as a flex starter (WR26) based on early ADP data. That could turn him into a potential bargain in 2026 fantasy drafts.
Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars
Thomas was a major disappointment last season, as his points-per-game average fell from 16.7 as a rookie to just 9.9 in 2025. Looking into the numbers, most of his NFL success to this point came in a different offense and with Mac Jones, not Trevor Lawrence. In eight career games with Jones, BTJ averaged 19.3 points. In 23 games with Lawrence under center, that average falls to 12.2 points (including 14 games last year, when he averaged just 9.9 points). So, while OTA reports on Lawrence and Thomas Jr. have been positive, he’s just a flex in drafts.
Michael Wilson, Cardinals
Wilson busted out last season, finishing 10th among fantasy wideouts. However, his splits in games played with and without Marvin Harrison Jr. are borderline disturbing. In 10 games in which Harrison played at least 20 snaps, Wilson averaged a mere 6.2 points. In seven games when Harrison played fewer than 20 snaps or was out altogether, Wilson’s average swelled to 22.6 points. The eight-game stretch in which he averaged 21.2 points is also unsustainable, so Wilson will be hard-pressed not to experience some level of regression in his stats and fantasy value.
Tight Ends
Colston Loveland, Bears
Loveland was mostly non-existent in fantasy over the first six games of his rookie season, as he saw just nine targets and scored a combined 10.4 fantasy points. Over his final 12 contests, he was targeted 73 times and scored 154.7 points (nearly 13 points per game). Loveland also put up 21-plus points in three of his final four games including the postseason, during which he was targeted an incredible 48 times. In Ben Johnson’s offense, which helped Sam LaPorta find success in Detroit, Loveland will be a massive breakout candidate in fantasy leagues.
Tyler Warren, Colts
Warren finished his rookie season ranked fourth in fantasy points among tight ends, averaging 11.1 points per game. However, he averaged nearly 15 points in his first seven games while Daniel Jones was under center, and that average fell to 8.7 over his final 10 games, most of which came without Jones at the helm after he suffered a torn Achilles. With news of Jones’ return mostly positive at this point, don’t be surprised if Warren is even better as an NFL sophomore.
Kyle Pitts Sr., Falcons
Pitts is coming off a career season with 88 catches, 928 yards, five touchdowns and 210.8 fantasy points. That was good enough for a TE2 finish. While the hiring of new head coach Kevin Stefanski is a positive, there are some stats that could make PItts hard to trust. First, in the first 12 weeks of last season, he averaged 41.7 yards, 9.2 points and was the TE16 (a middling backup). In Weeks 13-18, however, Pitts averaged 78.2 yards and 18.3 points and was the TE2.
It should be noted that Drake London, Atlanta’s top receiver, missed games in Weeks 13-15, so Pitts saw far more opportunities during that stretch. Also, 22% of his points came in one game (45.6 points in Week 15 vs. Tampa Bay … again, without London in the lineup). Fantasy fans should also remember that most of Pitts’ success last season came with Kirk Cousins, who is now in Las Vegas, under center. Clearly, there are some stats for his 2026 outlook.
Travis Kelce, Chiefs
Kelce finished third in fantasy points last season, but that high rank doesn’t tell the whole story. His 4.5 catches per game were his lowest total since 2015, and his 50.1 yards per game were his lowest since 2014. His fantasy points and yards per game have also declined in four straight seasons, and his average depth of target (aDOT) was 6.8. That ranked just 19th among tight ends with at least 25 catches. Kelce is also 36 (he’ll be 37 in October). In the Super Bowl era, only Tony Gonzalez has scored more than 195 points at age 36 or older. What’s more, only Gonzalez and Antonio Gates have scored more than five touchdowns in that age range.
Kelce continues to hold value because the tight end position has become such a dumpster fire across the league, but there’s a good chance his stats will continue to decline in 2026.
Kickers
Brandon Aubrey, Cowboys
Aubrey has scored a combined 366 fantasy points over the past two seasons, and that total swells to 407 points in leagues that utilize fractional scoring. If we use the latter (you should be too), Aubrey would rank 15th in points among running backs, 19th among wide receivers, and third among tight ends. And, if we included Aubrey in the flex conversation over the past two years, he would rank 35th overall … ahead of Devonta Smith, Javonte Williams, Wan’Dale Robinson, George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf, and Kenneth Walker III.
I’m not teling you Aubrey should be drafted in the same rounds as these players, of course, but you should absolutely be taking him before the last three rounds of your 2026 drafts.
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MICHAEL FABIANO
Michael Fabiano is a fantasy football analyst for Sports Illustrated. His weekly rankings and Start 'Em, Sit 'Em articles are must-reads for fantasy players. Before joining SI in August 2020, he worked for CBS Sports, NFL Network and SiriusXM. He also contributes to Westwood One Radio and the Locked on Dynasty Podcast. Fabiano was the first fantasy analyst to appear on one of the four major TV networks and is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Fame.
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