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Patrick Everson FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Sportsbooks in Las Vegas and across the nation reported extremely lopsided action on the USA vs. Australia odds on Friday. And it wasn’t the Socceroos taking all those tickets and dollars.
As expected, the public betting masses were all over America, and the public got paid in a 2-0 victory.
"The betting activity on USA vs. Australia suggests that World Cup fever is well and truly building in the U.S.," Caesars Sports head of soccer trading Mark Bickerdike said. "This match generated the highest number of wagers we’ve ever seen on a single soccer game."
Bickerdike and a couple of his bookmaking peers help recap the U.S. shutout and how that impacts World Cup odds going forward.
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Knockout Punch
Team USA got two first-half goals, the first on a deflection for an own goal, the second on an Alex Freeman leaping header right at the goal line, also off a deflection.
Those two goals more than held up, guaranteeing the U.S. a spot in the Round of 32 knockout stage. It also guaranteed money in bettors’ bankrolls, on a hugely popular match.
"It was good for the customers. Good for America. Bad for the book," said Casey Degnon, risk manager at The SuperBook.
Indeed, the Red, White & Blue were a popular play on the moneyline — to just win the match — and at either -1 or -1.5 goals. A two-goal shutout locked up all those wagers.
"The U.S. Men’s National Team was extremely popular, accounting for 87% of the handle in the match betting market," Bickerdike said. "So plenty of customers will be celebrating tonight.
"From a book perspective, we were grateful that Folarin Balogun didn’t get on the scoresheet, as he was undoubtedly the most popular selection across our player prop markets."
BetMGM trading manager Tristan Davis — who hails from Australia — was much more succinct when asked how the result went for his shop.
"Next question."
However, though sportsbooks generally got beat up on the outcome, they don’t necessarily mind. In fact, oddsmakers would like a decent American run, as it heightens the masses’ betting enthusiasm.
"Keeping America alive in the tourney will continue to drive action. So it’s not all bad," Degnon said.
Future’s So Bright
At Caesars, the USA is now a massive -1000 favorite to win Group D. Those odds will adjust once Friday night’s Türkiye vs. Paraguay match is settled, particularly if Türkiye gets the win.
That would mean Thursday’s Türkiye vs. USA finale would be for first place in the group.
"Finishing [first] would likely give the U.S. a favorable Round of 32 matchup, which has seen us shorten their odds in the tournament winner market from +4000 to +2800," Bickerdike said, noting ramped-up enthusiasm for the U.S. in World Cup futures odds. "We’ve continued to see strong support for the USA to go all the way."
Before the tournament began, the USA was +5000 in World Cup futures. The Americans have now sliced that price almost in half, sitting No. 10 in odds to win the World Cup.
Bickerdike, a huge soccer aficionado who lives in England, wouldn’t suggest a U.S. championship run. But he certainly likes the team’s direction at the moment.
"It feels like the work from the last two years is starting to pay dividends, with the USMNT beginning to really resemble a Mauricio Pochettino team, full of intensity, aggression and coordinated pressing," Bickerdike said. "If that continues, it could set them up well for a deep run in the tournament."
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