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Patrick Everson FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The United States was exhilarated after staving off Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 on Wednesday night.
Perhaps not quite as exhilarated, but certainly quite happy, were the public betting masses, who were all over the USA in World Cup odds for the Round of 32 knockout match.
Sportsbooks in Las Vegas and across the nation reported extremely heavy and lopsided patriotic action on the Stars & Stripes. And the bettors got paid.
Said Mark Bickerdike, Caesars Sports head of soccer trading:
"The U.S. men’s national team match against Bosnia and Herzegovina was a record-breaking event and the most-engaged soccer event in Caesars Sports history. It’s fair to say we have plenty of happy bettors this evening."
A few oddsmakers chimed in on Monday’s big result and what lies ahead, with the USA vs. Belgium odds already on the board and getting attention.
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Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain
Prior to Monday night’s game, SuperBook vice president John Murray noted that the U.S. was a substantial liability at his Vegas shop. As he put it, "The book would do quite well" if Bosnia advanced.
However, that also would’ve taken out the most attractive team to bettors.
So when the U.S. — which lost star Folarin Balogun to a much-disputed red card in the 64th minute — not only held its 1-0 lead but went on to win 2-0, Murray highlighted a very bright side for sportsbooks.
"The USA advancing is not a good immediate result," Murray said late Wednesday night. "But it sets up a fantastic Monday night match in primetime. USA vs. Belgium is gonna be huge.
"Action certainly spiked with tonight’s game. It was the most-bet game, and I don’t know why Monday wouldn’t be bigger."
If that’s indeed the case, then Caesars Sports — and surely others — is looking at a second straight record-breaking USA match. Bickerdike said the USA-Bosnia match was historic.
"It generated our highest soccer handle ever, the most wagers placed on a soccer event in our book’s history, and the highest number of unique customers wagering," he said. "That's obviously very encouraging, and we hope to see that momentum continue into the Round of 16 matchup."
As Close As It Gets
In the wake of the Americans' win, BetMGM quickly posted USA vs. Belgium odds for Monday’s Round of 16 clash. On the three-way moneyline (for 90 minutes plus injury time) it’s a deadlock pick ‘em: USA +160/Belgium +160/Draw +230.
In the To Advance market (simply which team reaches the quarterfinals, whether in regulation, overtime or a penalty-kick shootout), Belgium is actually a slim favorite at -115, with the U.S. at -110.
But make no mistake, by Monday’s 8 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX, the masses will have piled on the USMNT.
"I’m fairly confident the next game will be one of our biggest liabilities of the tournament, and the most-bet-game," BetMGM trading manager Adair Horne said.
Added Murray: "It’s the USA’s biggest game ever played on U.S. soil. Action will be a lot heavier than USA-Belgium."
Futures Forecast
When this 48-team tournament began on June 11, the USA was +5000 in Caesars’ World Cup futures odds. The Americans improved to +4000 after the 4-1 win over Paraguay, then to +3000 after the 2-0 win vs. Australia.
With the 3-2 loss to Türkiye in the final group match, the U.S. slid out slightly to +3000. Now, with a huge, shorthanded Round of 32 win — and even with the prospect of Balogun sitting out Monday — Caesars has the U.S. as the +2500 seventh choice to win the tournament.
"The move may feel small," Bickerdike said. "But the USA was a heavy favorite to progress from [the Bosnia] matchup and now faces a tough Round of 16 test against Belgium, without the likely suspended Balogun.
"That being said, our bettors were clearly encouraged by what they saw [Wednesday night], as we've already seen strong interest in the USA in the Tournament Winner market."
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