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Patrick Everson FOX Sports Betting Analyst
World Cup odds provided a record-breaking past month of soccer wagers for sportsbooks in Las Vegas and across the nation.
That’s likely to continue in the semifinals, since the final four teams alive just happen to be the top four teams in FIFA’s world rankings.
"Ever since the USA fell out, all of the knockout games have still been really big with our customers," Caesars Sports head of soccer trading Mark Bickerdike said. "Records continue to fall, and we expect that to continue in the semifinals and the final.
"We had high expectations for the tournament as a whole. But we’re surpassing those expectations."
Bickerdike helps break down World Cup semifinal odds and action ahead of Tuesday’s France-Spain showdown and Wednesday’s England-Argentina clash.
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France vs. Spain Odds
France has been the favorite in World Cup futures odds throughout this tournament and remains so, currently at +145 to lift the trophy.
Spain is the +340 second choice to win it all. So obviously, something’s gotta give in Tuesday’s 3 p.m. ET match on FOX, from Arlington, Texas.
On the three-way moneyline — which accounts for the result after 90 minutes plus injury time — France opened as a +120 favorite, with Spain +225 and Draw +230. As of 2 p.m. ET on Monday, it’s France +127/Spain +215/Draw +215.
In the To Advance market — on which team wins, whether in regulation, overtime or penalty-kick shootout — Caesars opened at France -162/Spain +130 and nudged to France -159/Spain +123.
"France at the moment is taking 54% of bets and money on the three-way," Bickerdike said. "But the tale to tell is on the To Qualify market, where 80% of money is on France."
That’s to go along with 65% of bets on France. So Spain is seeing just 35% of bets/20% of money to advance. On the three-way moneyline, Spain is drawing 24% of bets/30% of money, and Draw is at 22% of bets/16% of money.
"Our customers have been impressed by France’s attacking and talent," Bickerdike said, while acknowledging that action on Draw is higher than usual. "We do see a little more on draws in these late stages. And both England and Argentina went to extra time in the quarterfinals, so that’s gonna drive Draw action a little bit.
"But by far, Draw is still the best result for us."
No France Advance
Whether in regulation, extra time or on penalty kicks, though, Caesars has a clear preference for which team it wants to advance.
"Spain, both in the match and in the tournament winner book," Bickerdike said. "France is the biggest liability for us in the futures."
That means Spain has to put the clamps on Kylian Mbappé. With eight goals, Mbappé is tied for the tournament lead, joined by Argentina’s Lionel Messi.
The public betting masses are rooting for another big Mbappé performance.
"Mbappé is an extremely popular play in our anytime goalscorer market. Over 80% of money in that market is on Mbappé. It’s a lot of one-way traffic," Bickerdike said.
England vs. Argentina Odds
Argentina is the defending World Cup champion, beating France in a riveting 2022 final that went all the way to a penalty-kicks shootout. England, meanwhile, is trying to reach the final in order to secure a shot at its first World Cup crown in 60 years. Three Lions’ only other championship came in 1966.
And the odds couldn’t be much closer for Wednesday’s 3 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX, from Atlanta.
The three-way moneyline opened at Argentina +150/England +170/Draw +240. However, the favorite has since flipped, with England +152/Argentina +198/Draw +193.
To Advance odds opened at Argentina -118/England -106, then jumped the fence to England -136/Argentina +106.
"Customers are finding it really hard to split these two teams," Bickerdike said. "In To Advance, they’re favoring Argentina. In terms of money, it’s 52% on Argentina/48% on England, and bet count is 57% Argentina/43% England."
The three-way market has a very unusual dynamic, as of 2 p.m. ET Monday.
"Draw is actually the most popular selection," Bickerdike said, noting a tie in 90 minutes plus injury time is netting 37% of bets and money.
England is taking 33% of bets/39% of the money, and Argentina is landing 30% of bets/24% of the money.
"I think it’s a product of what people saw on Saturday," Bickerdike said, alluding to England-Norway and Argentina-Switzerland both going to overtime, after 1-1 draws in regulation.
"I do think as we get closer to the match, we’ll see more money coming in on the teams, and Draw will still be what we need," Bickerdike said.
English Beat
Whether the match goes to extra time or not, Caesars doesn’t want to see a rematch of the 2022 World Cup final.
"England is our second-best futures result, just behind Spain," Bickerdike said. "In the exacta market, we have substantial liability on a repeat of Argentina vs. France. So we’d be extremely happy with an England-Spain final."
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