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Patrick Everson FOX Sports Betting Analyst
As a soccer oddsmaker — and an English one at that — Mark Bickerdike knows it’s never over ‘til it’s over.
But Bickerdike and his Caesars Sports trading team remain stunned that it’s Spain vs. Argentina odds on the board for the World Cup final, rather than Spain vs. England.
"We were just about ready to release Spain vs. England and had to quickly change our plans," Bickerdike said Friday.
That’s because Lionel Messi & Co. pulled yet another rabbit out of the hat to beat England on Wednesday. As such, Bickerdike now helps dive into World Cup odds for Spain vs. Argentina, in a 3 p.m. ET showdown Sunday on FOX.
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Better Late Than Never
As everyone knows by now, England led Argentina 1-0 through 84 minutes of Wednesday’s semifinal. Harry Kane & Co. were poised to reach their first World Cup final since 1966, when England won its only championship.
But Argentina was putting on relentless pressure and finally broke through on an 85th-minute Enzo Fernández goal to tie it, off an assist from Messi. Still, it appeared overtime might be in store.
Then Messi made a brilliant cross in the second minute of second-half injury time. Lautaro Martínez headed it in, ultimately giving Argentina a shocking 2-1 victory.
It was yet more late-match heroics for Argentina, preceded by:
- Two overtime goals in a 3-2 win over Cape Verde
- Three goals, starting in the 79th minute, to erase a 2-0 deficit and beat Egypt 3-2
- Two overtime goals to beat Switzerland 3-1
"I think it’s fair to say that Argentina definitely rode the luck wave. They’ve done it the hard way. It all sets up for Messi to go out with a real bang," Bickerdike said.
Fairytale Finish?
It won’t get easier against Spain, with Argentina an underdog for the second straight match.
Caesars opened the three-way moneyline — for 90 minutes plus injury time — at Spain +125/Argentina +230/Draw +220. As of 5 p.m. ET on Friday, it’s Spain +123/Argentina +250/Draw +198.
In the To Lift The Trophy market — which accounts for all methods of victory (regulation/OT/penalty-kick shootout) — Caesars opened at Spain -170/Argentina +135 and moved to Spain -154/Argentina +125.
Between Messi playing in likely his last World Cup and all the late-game drama, the public betting masses believe that Argentina is destined to win a second straight title.
"The fairytale finish for Messi is probably driving customers a little bit, as well as the finishes," Bickerdike said. "In the three-way, Argentina is taking 59% of bets and 60% of money. Spain is at 33% of bets and 34% of money."
That leaves Draw with the remaining 8% of bets and 6% of money.
"On To Lift The Trophy, it’s a similar story in terms of tickets: 65% Argentina and 35% Spain. But the money is a lot closer — 54% Argentina and 46% Spain," Bickerdike said.
What The Book Wants
First off, as with every soccer match, sportsbooks want 90 minutes plus injury time to end in a draw. That allows the books to scoop up all the three-way money on both teams, virtually guaranteeing a winning outcome, at least on the match itself.
But keep in mind, the World Cup futures odds market also settles up on Sunday. So that factors into oddsmakers’ considerations.
"In general, we want Spain to lift the trophy. We wanted that before the semifinals, and that continues," Bickerdike said. "The perfect scenario is, let’s go all the way to penalties and see Spain win. Let’s see 120 minutes on that clock."
If the match indeed goes to overtime, Caesars and everyone else will want it to be due to a low-scoring draw — either 0-0 or 1-1. That’s because the total goals market — currently 2.5, with Under a -159 favorite — is getting slammed with Over action.
"The majority of our business has been on the Over. In fact, we have a decent liability on Over 3.5 goals, as well," Bickerdike said.
Caesars also wants the highest-profile players shut down on Sunday.
"We’ll be cheering against Messi and Lamine Yamal. They’re taking a combined 80% of the money in the anytime goals market. So we’d like to see them not get on the scoresheet," Bickerdike said.
Dodging Nostradamus
More than five years ago, on July 11, 2021, when X was still called Twitter, a subscriber made the following predictive post:
In the wake of Argentina’s stunning knockout of England, that post was rebirthed and went viral. Further, multiple sportsbooks noted Friday that there’s substantial action in the Correct Score market on an Argentina 3-2 victory.
"That is a substantial liability for us. We’ve seen large-stakes bets on that and a lot of $1 bets," Bickerdike said, while noting odds opened at +5000 and are now significantly shorter. "We moved it due to the liability. We’re now at +3500.
"When the story came to light, it raised a few eyebrows and a few smiles. Although if it ends 3–2, we might not be smiling."
Bookmakers at least have the favorite in their corner. And it’s worth noting that Spain has given up just one goal the entire tournament, so three in one match would be unprecedented.
That said, I’d probably throw a five-dollar flier on it, just in case, even at 35/1. For a chance to win $175, why not take that ride?
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