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Will Hill FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Mexico and South Africa open the 2026 FIFA World Cup on Thursday afternoon in what should be an exciting showcase for everything El Tri has built so far.
Mexico is the -240 favorite to win, while South Africa is +750. The draw is priced at +340, with the Over/Under for total goals set at 2.5.
Mexico has dominated CONCACAF over the past few years. Looking at FIFA World Rankings, Mexico has a distinct advantage. It ranks 15th in the world, while South Africa is 60th.
But from a tactical standpoint, Mexico is in a very dominant position.
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El Tri is a possession-based team, but it doesn't mind conceding possession and defending in a low block. That’s what makes it effective in this match. Not only has Mexico done well in front of net by scoring its chances, but the Mexican squad is also defending at a high level.
El Tri has conceded just twice in eight unbeaten matches in 2026, including a 5-1 beatdown of Serbia.
This is a South African team that will try to take its chances but lacks quality in front of net.
I like the Under in this match, and I feel that this being the opening game of the tournament lends itself to an Under.
With the expanded field, it’s reasonable to expect teams like South Africa to know that, if players can grind out points in the group stage, they have a chance to be one of the third-place teams that advances to the next round.
Every point these teams earn will matter, which likely means a more conservative approach.
If you want to get creative, parlaying Mexico to win the match with the alternate total of Under 3.5 goals gets the price down to reasonable -130 odds and gives some wiggle room compared to the standard total of 2.5.
Mexico has the good fortune of opening the tournament on its own turf in front of a raucous crowd, giving its players what should be a major home-field advantage.
Three points are there for the taking for Mexico, and parlaying it to win with under 3.5 total goals scored is the smart way to play this match.
PICK: Parlay of Mexico to win, Under 3.5 total goals scored (-130)
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