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Will Hill FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The 2026 World Cup is off to an interesting start.
It feels like Draw and Under has been the theme so far. A lot of these matches have been tight and lower scoring, which makes sense with teams still trying to feel their way into the tournament.
From a betting standpoint, if you don’t know these teams well, the simplest strategy has been to blindly bet Under 2.5 and the draw.
That doesn’t mean you should blindly bet that every match, but early in the group stage, teams know how valuable one point will be.
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When England takes on Croatia on Wednesday, I like the Under and I expect another low-scoring match. I think there is value in fading this Croatian attack. Sure, you can take England to win, but with draws being so prevalent so far in this World Cup, that’s a dangerous wager.
Instead, I think you’re better off fading Croatia’s age, lack of transitional speed, and the lack of a consistent goal threat.
The bet I like is Croatia team total Under 0.5 goals (+110). While there haven’t been many 0-0 draws, and there haven’t been many teams shut out so far, this is a trustworthy England defense under Thomas Tuchel.
England defends well, controls possession and doesn't get stretched often.
England did not concede a single goal throughout World Cup qualification. It brings to the table one of the best defenses in Europe, and structurally, this is a tough matchup for Croatia.
One thing that could break England down is a counterattack, but Croatia doesn't really have the transitional speed to punish Three Lions. It also doesn't showcase much firepower individually.
From a structural standpoint, England should be able to keep its shape, control the match, and avoid feeling truly threatened for long stretches. From a wagering standpoint, while it’s not a pleasant way to watch and enjoy a match, I will play Croatia to be shut out.
Hill's Pick: 
Croatia Under 0.5 Goals Scored (+110)
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Betting Gambling 
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