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Patrick Everson FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Across America, the public betting masses can’t get enough of wagering on USA World Cup odds, even in a completely meaningless match.
The USMNT is 2-0 in Group D play, already wrapping up first place. Türkiye is surprisingly 0-2 and cannot advance, regardless of the result in Thursday night’s match.
Yet bettors are piling on the USA, which has never gone 3-0 in World Cup group play.
"We have seen that, regardless of the matchup, when the USA is playing, the support is always going to show up," said Mark Bickerdike, Caesars Sports’ head of soccer trading.
Bickerdike helps dive into the USA vs. Türkiye odds and the USMNT’s World Cup futures odds.
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Who’s In, Who’s Out?
Bookmakers and bettors alike face challenges in figuring out Thursday’s 10 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX. Technically, neither team has anything to play for.
Further, four USA players have a yellow card apiece and must guard against a second card. Folarin Balogun, who had two goals in a 4-1 opening win over Paraguay, is one of those players, along with Tyler Adams, Chris Richardson and Antonee Robinson.
Another booking would mean suspension for the Round of 32 knockout-stage match.
In addition, Christian Pulisic is dealing with a calf injury and could perhaps use more rest. So coach Mauricio Pochettino has some big decisions to make in the next 30 hours or so.
"One of the biggest challenges for bookmakers and customers is predicting the lineups," Bickerdike said. "It’s a good opportunity for the U.S. to rest players, so that they’re more fit."
The three-way moneyline opened at USA +135/Türkiye +177/Draw +255. That was after USA’s 2-0 win over Australia, and before Türkiye's 1-0 loss to Paraguay.
Now, Türkiye seemingly has little motivation, since it can’t advance. And the odds have shifted significantly toward the host nation, at USA -113/Türkiye +250/Draw +290.
However, Bickerdike believes the hard-luck underdog won’t go quietly.
"Türkiye will want to go out on a better note," he said, adding he wouldn’t be surprised by a high-scoring match. "I’d expect a free-flowing game, a bit more of a high total than previous matches, because there is no risk for either team."
Caesars’ total is at 2.5, with the Over a -139 favorite and Under a +109 underdog.
Backing The Red, White & Blue
Motivations and strategies noted, the masses are not backing off the USA.
Last Friday’s USA vs. Australia match attracted the most bets Caesars has ever seen on a single soccer game. Those bettors — flush with cash after two big U.S. wins — are back for more.
"We’re still seeing a lot of patriotism. People are enriched by the previous two matches," Bickerdike said. "We’re seeing 87% of wagers and 95% of money on the U.S. in three-way betting.
"People are hoping to see a win and the USA go into the Round of 32 with high momentum."
That’s not exactly what sportsbook risk rooms across America want to see, though, especially since the masses have cleaned up on World Cup odds over the past few days.
Be it from betting on the USA or on all the popular goalscorer props — Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappé, Erling Haaland, Cristiano Ronaldo — sportsbooks are getting throttled of late.
"We’ve had a rough few days in terms of results, and some good customer-friendly results," Bickerdike said, though he noted there’s a positive to be taken from those results. "That also helps keep engagement up.
"We’re very pleased with the engagement we’ve seen. You can see that World Cup fever is definitely starting to hit."
Still, late Thursday night, Bickerdike and his peers would love nothing more than a low-scoring draw.
"We’re absolutely rooting for a draw in this one," he said, while noting he doesn’t think a tie will dampen enthusiasm for the USMNT. "I don’t think there’ll be a drop in engagement. The USA will still win the group and be best positioned to progress further."
Futures Forecast
When this 48-team tournament began on June 11, the USA was +5000 in World Cup futures odds. The Americans improved to +4000 after the 4-1 win over Paraguay, then to +3000 after the 2-0 win vs. Australia. That puts the Americans among the top 10 teams.
The bandwagon is overflowing with bets on the U.S. to run the table, unlikely as that still might be. The U.S. has the most tickets to win the tourney and is third in futures money, behind only Portugal and +375 tournament favorite France.
"The activity on USA has continued to be strong, and we’ve also seen a big surge on the Netherlands," Bickerdike said. "Our biggest liabilities are USA, then the Netherlands, then Portugal. With the USA being our most-wagered team, that is the biggest liability, by a significant margin."
Portugal is the +1000 fifth choice in Caesars’ World Cup futures, and the Netherlands is eighth at +1600.
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