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Transcript
I have taken the liberty of giving myself the first pick because I want one that I'm not gonna mess up today, uh, and you're gonna nail this one, this one, I'm gonna make that prediction.
I think I'm gonna nail this one.
I think it's Diego Pavia.
No, I'm kidding.
Um, I, uh, I, I'm gonna, I'm gonna take the number one pick here and what we're gonna do is we're just gonna bounce back and forth and really it's just a conversation about.
What do, what do these teams need?
What are they looking for ?
Who might they be looking at?
And, uh, we're just gonna make a little bit of a conversation .
We'll do 1 through 10 next episode, 11 through 20, and then we'll finish it up, uh, the following week.
And so, number one, the Las Vegas Raiders, you're on the clock.
I mean, Albert, this feels like.
Um, and we haven't talked since the Raiders, uh, signed Kirk Cousins, uh, but this feels as inevitable as the Titans taking Cam Ward, uh, possibly it actually feels more inevitable than that.
It felt inevitable the moment that the Raiders got, um, the number one pick.
Uh, it's Fernando Mendoza.
Um, and what's interesting about this whole thing now is that we're in batshit season.
For the NFL draft, right, where Here's what happens.
These scouts and these teams work on this stuff all year.
In December, their notebook is pretty full.
Uh, they know vaguely what they want and what they're looking at, and who's good and who's not good.
We talk to them then, we develop a consensus.
And then batshit season starts.
OK, so we have the combine and some guy who's 6'8 and who was a car salesman gets invited to the combine and runs a 4-1 and then all of a sudden he's gonna be a number, you know, and then you have the, well, they might not take this guy, they might take this guy, and they might not take this guy, they might take this guy.
And we're, we're in the middle of and then before you know it, like people are posting about how Will Levis is the betting favorite to go 2nd overall, correct.
And then all of a sudden, like two days before the draft, people like Albert will put out their mock drafts, and everyone's like, Oh, that's interesting.
It's like, yeah, it's because.
The stuff that we've, you know, kind of gleaned all along that like the common sense and we're not just like grabbing at every straw and shattering the, the tapestry that is this mock draft every time a shiny new object comes around and we decide that this thing is that we got to blow it all up.
So, I don't know, that's my miniature rant here.
But, I think that this is, this one is easy.
It's Fernando Mendoza.
Um, I, I, I'm not this Ty Simpson thing is whatever.
I mean, I, I don't even know if, I mean, you know, it's just, let me, let me simplify this because I, I, I think this is one thing, and I, I again, I still have a lot of phone calls to make and I'm not there yet on a lot of this stuff.
I am, I do feel like I'm here on this though, and I have been here on this for a while.
Um, the Raiders have done so much background work on these quarterbacks that I would actually say right around New Year's Day.
They were probably down at that point to Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore.
And like they had looked at all the quarterbacks, they had scouted most of them live.
Um, they wanted to get ahead on it, um, because I think it would have, they, they, they knew it would inform them on how they handle the rest of their offseason.
Um, they've been diligent.
This has not been a coronation for the Raiders.
I wrote about this 8 days ago.
Feel free to go and check that out.
There's a lot of detail in there on, on everything they've been through.
Um, But I think because they had kind of gotten to the point where it's like, OK, we'd be comfortable with Fernando Mendoza from Indiana, the Heisman Trophy winner, or Dante Moore from Oregon, and we have to pick which one.
And then Dante Moore decides in mid-January to return to Oregon for his 4th year.
It basically became academic at that point.
And so I don't think that like Ty Simpson had ever elevated to being in the conversation for them.
Um, they're very different prospects.
I mean, Fernando Mendoza is 6'5, 236 pounds.
Um, Fernando Mendoza has a lot of upside, and I'm not saying Ty Simpson's tape isn't good because what I've gathered from a lot of people is that he does more NFL things on tape than than Mendoza does.
Mendoza comes from a very RPO heavy offense at Indiana.
He was throwing the NFL receivers and Omar Cooper and Elijah Sarratt and Charlie Becker.
And, you know, like he, I, I, I would say last year, didn't deal with a lot of like football adversity out there, like things didn't go wrong for him a lot.
There was a game against Penn State, you know, he had to, he had to fight through some stuff against Oregon.
Obviously, Ohio State made some huge throws, um, you know, at the end of the Big 10 title game, but for the most part, um, a lot of times the play went the way it was drawn up to go.
But if you're, we're talking about not where the guys are, but where they might be in 4 or 5 years, and you're talking about who is the quarterback that you're gonna most likely feel comfortable paying $70 to $75 million a year, I think there's no question it's Mendoza.
And what, what I was going to say about batshit season is now we're arguing about snaps under center, right, with Fernando Mendoza.
And I think it's interesting because, you know, at the same time, you, you see kind of the consensus in the NFL folks say, what a great signing Kirk Cousins is and Then I don't like Fernando Mendoza in this offense because he can't play under center and I'm like, did you watch Indiana at all last year?
He's incredibly athletic.
I mean, he's not, you know, he's not Josh Allen.
People, people confuse can't with hasn't, you know what I mean?
Like can't and hasn't are two different things.
You don't think if Kirk Cousins, and, and, and I know that you're a, a, a staunch.
Uh, uh, truther in this category here, but like, even if Kirk Cousins starts the 1st 3 or 4 games of the season, which I, I, I don't even know if it's gonna make it that far, I'm not sure.
But let's say that Kirk Cousins even gives Mendoz a little bit of a runway into the season.
You don't think Mendoza, who already has the Raiders playbook, who's been studying it for a month, can't, can't figure out with all of the private quarterback training help in the world how to start playing under center.
I mean, come on, like this is like he'll be fine and he's athletic.
It's gonna be a boot-heavy offense.
Like I, I think that Fernando Mendoza.
I mean, God, we just saw Kirk Cousins in Atlanta with, um, you know, and kind of struggling to get through some of the play action and stuff like that.
Like, I, I think Mendoza is a better fit for that offense, even having not done it.
Than Cousins.
I don't know if that's a wild take to have, but like, I think Mendoza will ultimately be better at that offense than Cousins is.
I mean, you know, and , and, and we can come up with a ton of examples of it.
Like how often did Patrick Mahomes play under center at Texas Tech?
Almost never, right?
Like I don't know if he took a single snap under center at Texas Tech.
Um, Andy, he, he adapted, you know, and Andy Reid adapted the offense to him too.
I mean, that's part of the coach's job to adapt to what your quarterback does well, but I, You know, I, I like Jared Goff almost never played, and I think that's the, I think that's probably a really good comp for Mendoza.
Um, Jared Goff never played under center, you know, in college, and like he, he's just fine doing it now.
So, you know, I, I think here's the, the thing with this whole debate to me is just.
I think it's manufactured because people need something to talk about when this is such a slam dunk, you know what I mean?
So we, we, we generate conversation, um, and look, like, again, like I'm not denying that there isn't tape of, of Ty Simpson doing things that translate to the NFL that Fernando Mendoza doesn't have that exists, that's real.
But the job of the GM and the coach is not to Project like, OK, like who's gonna be most comfortable playing in an NFL offense in September of 2026.
It's who's gonna be the best player in 2029, who's gonna be the best player in 2030, and like I think that's why I, cause you're not just you're not drafting production, you're drafting trades, and Fernando Mendoza is a big athletic.
Like, does he have a Josh Allen arm?
No, but he's got like that again, like that Jared Goff whip , you know, like there's just a lot to like there and you can project him out.
And again, like, we're looking at golf, you, you, you people look at golf and say like, well, you know, like, is that good?
Yes.
If you can get Jared Goff for the 1st overall pick, yes, that's good enough.
Jared Goff went to two franchises that were objectively horrible before he got there and took them both to conference championship games, took one of them to a Super Bowl.
So you just have to be good around them, you know, and so, um.
There are 3 or 4 quarterbacks in football at a time that are better than that.
You know what I mean?
That are like, yes, this guy, this guy's gonna cover up your flaws and you can have holes in your roster, it doesn't matter cause this guy is that, those guys, it's really hard to find those guys.
If you can get a guy who can be, who can, who, who you can win with, who if you're really good around him, you're gonna wind up contending for championships, that's plenty good enough to be.
Um, you know, top 5, top 10 pick, and, you know, in this year's draft, the 1st overall pick.
And to be clear, like I remember, uh, one of the first, no, my first draft, I think at NFL Network was this big discussion about who's going to go number 1, Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota.
And there was the talk of like, well, Winston is more of your classic.
He's gonna evolve into Ben Roethlisberger and Mariota might be Rookie of the Year, but then he might peter out.
It's like none, none of those guys ended up the fact that, you know, like Ty Simpson and Fernando Mendoza might be, you know, Kenny Pickett and, and Will Levis, you know, in, in, in a couple of years too.
I mean, so anyway, uh, that's an important caveat to make here.
Number 2, Albert, uh, the New York Jets.
Let's go.
Select Texas Tech defensive end, David Bailey, um.
I think this is gonna come down to, for the Jets, um, David Bailey and Arvel Reese.
You know, I think with a coach who's on the hot seat, um, and Aaron Glenn, there is a need to have a guy who projects easy into your defense.
And also, like because I've talked to people a little more about Bailey, you know who it sounds a little bit like is Aiden Hutchinson.
And so, uh, it's just, you know, uh, you know, like, is he gonna hold up against the run?
Like there's that, there's some of those questions, but man, he's an MFer.
As a pass rusher.
And he's really difficult to deal with as a pass rusher.
And he can evolve the other stuff.
And so, I, I think David Bailey is gonna be the 2nd pick of the draft.
I think regardless that the, that the Jets are going to take one of the pass rushers, and the reason I go with Bailey over Reese, and I think we talked about this, you know, a couple of weeks ago, is just because David Bailey is like, you know, exactly what he's gonna be as a pro.
Whereas with Arvel Reese, you know, he's one of these hybrids, we've seen more of them over the last few years.
Micah Parsons is the gold standard, of course, but, um, you know, we've seen more and more players that are used as those sorts of hybrids, off-ball, on ball.
Um, linebacker rushing types and, you know, you're Jad Campbell, Abdul Carter, um, you know, Jalen Walker, like, you know, that's, that's Arvel Reese.
You have to have a plan for him.
Um, I just think it's easier with Daily Bailey, David Bailey to, to plug him in.
And, and give yourselves, give yourself a chance and maybe he can be like an Aiden Hutchinson type edge, type edge rusher for, for, uh, for Aaron Glenn, who obviously had Hutchinson himself in Detroit.
Smart move too if you're, uh, uh, if you're the GM of the Jets, right?
Because you, and I hate to say this in like a defeatist way, I feel like I've been burying Aaron Glenn for 6 months now, but I, I think more than likely you're probably looking at a situation where another coach is seeing this through, uh, the entirety of the rebuild.
I mean, this is not gonna be a good team next year and Glenn's got to really change and evolve as a head coach, I think, and as a CEO if he wants to hold on.
that job and so taking someone who you don't need a plan for that is sort of scheme averse, you know, I think is, is the right move and uh I mean Jets will take another swing at it, you know, you avoid the ghost of Vernon Colson here with the number 2 pick.
Um, number 3.
So, I mean, You tell me, Albert.
I mean, I know that you're an Ohio State guy.
I mean, is this where Arvel Reese goes?
Or if I were gonna go the, the big tackle from Miami, um, I mean, would I be, don't you think value meets need here with, uh, with, with Reese though, you know, and again, you have to be creative, so a lot of that is gonna be on, um, you know, on, on, on, on, on Michael Floor and his staff and You know, they, uh, They, they, they, they, they've got some stuff.
I mean, they're, they're holding on to the, um, they're holding on to the, to the Gannon scheme and, and bringing Nick Rolla back.
And I think Nick Rolla has, has the flexibility in his scheme to, to, to come up with a plan for someone like Arvel Reese.
I think the ceiling is just so sky-high with Reese.
You know what I mean?
Like, it's just, I mean, I'm looking through some of my notes here, and it's just, uh, you know, The speed and explosiveness is, is, is just God-given and you know you can't really replicate and so like you have a guy who kind of becomes your Swiss Army knife there, um, who else would you consider here?
Am I helping you workshop this pick or did you just take Reese?
No, um, I, I, I mean, I, I think the tackle from Miami, right, like because here's the thing, I mean, you're so Francis, now I know it, and, and I.
So then you'd have bookends, so you're paying Paris Johnson this offseason or next to be your left tackle.
And now I know it makes sense because now your right tackle is taken care of.
And I mean, what did you do this offseason?
You, you brought in, I mean, your big offseason addition was Tyler Algier, you're going to run it back with James Connor one more time, Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minho, but essentially you're, you're, you're creating the groundwork for a quarterback in the following draft, right?
And, uh, or, or bringing in a veteran, you know, uh, like veteran.
I like that, um.
I, I just wonder, when you look at Michael Flor's background.
Like the Niners and Rams, how much have they really invested in the offensive line over the years?
Like how often have we seen them just sort of try to make it work, and I You know, I, I look at like the Jonah Jackson thing blowing up on the Rams, you know what I mean?
And that didn't work out.
Now, Kevin Dodson did, right?
But they, you know, they kept, um, you know, Rob Hanstein, right tackle forever.
And then, you know, Mike was obviously in San Francisco with Kyle Shanahan.
They invested in Trent, Trent Williams.
But outside of that, we've seen them kind of have moving pieces at the rest of those spots and let guys go in free agency, even with the Jets when he was with the Jets.
And that's probably a worse example cause it kind of blew up in their face.
So I think it would be.
It would be a departure to some degree from Michael Fleur's background, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't be smart.
I mean, the idea of having both your tackle spots taken care of potentially for a decade, that's pretty enticing, you know.
And, and I do think Maui Noah is a relatively safe pick, you know.
So I don't know.
This is up to you, Connor.
This is your call.
So I know it's my call.
So the only reason that I, I would, I would push away from Reese, and I'll just I'll I'll do Reese, I think for the sake of like having the same conversation right now.
And so I'm going to put the card in.
But, um, this is not just a coaching decision, right?
This is an ownership decision.
And if you're Michael Bidwell, who does Arvel Reese remind you at all, possibly of the two-year stretch where you spent first round picks, pick 8 and then pick 16.
After Kyler Murray on defensive players that you needed to have a plan for, and that goes from Zavon Collins to Isaiah Simmons, right?
And that's true.
And, and if you're Bidwell PTSD from those two, yeah, that was, are you talking about that in the meeting at all and is everybody, and, and are you being like, hold on, you know, no, I mean that's a fair point.
I had thought about that, but like that is 100% correct.
Like anyway, those guys, both those guys were seen as like.
relatively safe picks and then like, you know, it became what it became, um, so yeah, because Isaiah Simmons is probably Isaiah Simmons is like right there I mean it's a different hybrid obviously safety linebacker hybrid versus linebacker rush and hybrid, but and I think most people like would look at Reese and say I think with Reese the interesting thing is like Most people think his evolution is gonna go like Micah Parsons did because if you're investing in him at that level and you're gonna draft him that high, then you, you're gonna naturally, you know, kind of maybe push him towards the premium position which is as a rush end, you know, but so, so that'll be interesting for sure, um, all right.
This is where it starts to get interesting and this is where, so this is where you don't need to manufacture this Ty Simpson bullshit.
The draft gets fun right now and it gets fun organically right now.
4, right?
At 4, are you gonna take a running back?
I am.
Are you good?
Yeah, I am.
I am.
I, I just, here's, here's why.
I think this is an investment in your young quarterback.
And I think, I think back to some of the examples of young quarterbacks playing really well in part because they had a great running back next to them.
I think of Todd Gurley with Jared Goff.
I think of Ezekiel Elliott with Dak Prescott when those guys were young, right?
Even Saquan Barkley with, with, with Daniel Jones.
Um, you know, we've seen examples where quarterbacks have, I, I feel like their, their, their, their development has been accelerated by having a great running back next to them.
Um, and Jeremiah Love to me is sort of the I mean, I, I, I think, you know, the way we've looked at it, and I think we looked at the last 12 years, right?
Then there's 7 or 8 running backs that have gone in the top 10.
Um, the general prototype for the guy who goes that high at that position.
is 220 to 230 pounds and can play all three downs, right?
Like, it's almost like a Like you're looking for Marshall Faulk in the passing game, and Adrian Peterson in the run game.
And not, it's not perfect because those guys aren't all of that at once, but you have both those elements, you know, which turns the guy into kind of a joker , you know what I mean?
They're true, and I know Sean Payton uses that term to describe like the third-down back, but when you've got a guy who can run between the tackles, but when you break the huddle, you're not sure where he's gonna line up.
That's a huge weapon as far as forcing certain personnel onto the field, forcing certain matchups.
And so I think in so many different ways, someone like Jeremiah Love can just change the equation for Cam Ward, not to mention the fact that with a guy like that.
Now more often, you're gonna be in.
Instead of being now more often, instead of being in.
You know, 2nd and 11 or 3rd and 8, more often now you're gonna be the 2nd and 6th or 3rd and 2, and that takes a huge weight off of your young quarterback.
So in a ton of different ways, I think Jeremiah Love can help you develop Cam Ward, and there's nothing more important now than developing Cam Ward.
And, you know, Brian Daball saw, you know, what Saquan did for, for DJ in New York and that great year they got out of DJ that first year they were there, so.
Um, love makes all the sense in the world to me.
Um, I was talking to that one, I do.
Um, uh, there's no, uh, I, I may or may not have a Jeremiah Love story coming out here in the next couple of days, and, uh, which you guys should read.
It's in the draft.
We can actually see the magazine now.
Oh, whatever, spoiler, I feel like we were dancing around some things.
Yeah, I was out in California two weeks ago hanging out with Jeremiah Love, but, um, doing some research for it, um, so there's one story that's in the, the magazine that I'll keep, uh, but I was talking to, um, His running backs coach and that, you know, his home run ability is unlike anything that I, I think a lot of these coaches have seen.
He, when he was in high school, he was sitting out.
I saw one in person, by the way, I saw him break off like a 99 yarder against Boston College this past year.
Yes, and so he did that against Indiana in the playoffs last, uh, in 24.
I have a great story in the magazine about that Boston College run and The reason why he did it, because like, sometimes, you know, it's like, OK, well, you know, a running back should try to score on every play, but like there was something that happened that led him to score that touchdown and we could talk about it on the show, um, I think later on this week or next week when the story comes out, but in high school, um, he was a sophomore and he was sitting out because he had a hamstring injury and wasn't playing or anything like that, and the team was losing and the momentum was dragging, and so his friend looks over and he puts all of his stuff on.
Checks himself in for one play, scores an eighty-yard touchdown, and then checks himself back out of the game because he's hurt, right?
But like, he is, he, he's a three-down player.
His coaches say that really his best stuff is the blocking and the short yardage stuff.
Like, I mean, he's a great short yardage runner.
He's gonna be able to move the sticks, and I think I think that that's a huge deal for the Titans just to help them, you know, move the chains, get going on offense a little bit.
They love them.
I don't know.
It's just a million different ways you can help your young quarterback with them, even like, and I say like, you know, 2nd and 6th and 3rd and 2, that's a big deal, you know, because like when you get in 2nd and 6th and 3rd and 2, the offense's playbook is wide open.
The defense's playbook is, is, is smaller.
And so you're effectively making, creating situations for your quarterback where you're gonna put him at a schematic advantage versus when you're in 3rd and 11, there's only so many things you can do as an offense and the defense can do whatever they want, you know, so I just think just from a developmental standpoint it'll be really great and um.
You know, and then I think like the Titans could even look at, you know, coming back and, and maybe looking at receiver, um, you know, in the 2nd round.
I know they, they, they took a couple last year, you know, DK looks like he's got some real potential, but Um, yeah, I mean, I, I think if either of the pass rushers falls to 4, then it becomes a real question.
Like if either Reese or Bailey are there, then I think that that would be a real conversation, but with the way we have it going here, I think it makes it easier for them just to say, let's take Jeremiah Love.
Also, you know, if there was like a left tackle, like where you were like, yeah, like that's the guy .
Um, then I could see that, but the problem is like you got JC Latham, who you took high as a right tackle, and I think the two best tackles in the draft, Maui Noah and then Fano from Utah, both right tackles.
So I think that makes it a little easier to just bet on the running back here too.
