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As two old foes get set to reconvene, we look ahead to another big Premier League contest on Monday evening with our Man Utd vs Leeds prediction and preview.
Man Utd vs Leeds: The Key Stats
- Manchester United have only lost one of 14 Premier League games since Christmas Day (W8 D5), with only league leaders Arsenal earning more points (31) than the Red Devils during the same period (29).
- Leeds have won just once across their last 20 league meetings with Man Utd (D7 L12) and are winless in 10 since a 1-0 home victory in September 2002.
- Heavily fancying Monday’s hosts, the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations gave Man Utd a 61.7% chance of winning, compared to a modest 18.1% for Leeds.
In yet another transitional season, Manchester United will finally hit the home straight when they welcome Leeds United to Old Trafford on Monday evening.
Beneficiaries of their own misfortune, Man Utd will have enjoyed – or perhaps endured – a 24-day break between fixtures when they line up again, fresh from a team-building trip to the Republic of Ireland.
While there, they promoted a pre-season friendly for the summer against Leeds, aiming to raise funds following two early cup exits and last year’s failure to qualify for Europe.
Those setbacks have contributed to Michael Carrick’s men getting a prolonged period of rest before the Premier League run-in, which starts with a visit from one of their traditional rivals.
Since the Red Devils’ 2-2 draw at Bournemouth – in which two points slipped away – their grip on Champions League football has actually strengthened, after fifth place was confirmed as an automatic qualifying spot.
Still being chased by Aston Villa, Liverpool and Chelsea, they can’t afford to slip up too often in the seven games remaining, which will also serve as an audition for Carrick’s claim to a permanent appointment.
So far, the ex-United midfielder has won all six league games at Old Trafford as manager (one in 2021, five this year). Only Carlo Ancelotti (seven), the late Sven-Göran Eriksson (nine), and Manuel Pellegrini (11) have had longer winning starts on home turf throughout the Premier League era.
Carrick’s team have also secured 23 points (W7 D2 L1) from a possible 30 since he took over on January 17, shortly after Man Utd drew 1-1 at Elland Road in Ruben Amorim’s final match.
Leeds are now looking to avoid defeat in both league meetings with their Manchester rivals for the first season since 1994-95; given their current predicament in a tight relegation fight, they’ll be doubly keen to frustrate their foes from across the Yorkshire-Lancashire divide.
Precedent suggests there’s every chance of returning home with one point, as Leeds have drawn seven of their last eight Premier League away games (L1). No team have recorded more stalemates on the road this term, while Bournemouth and Man Utd have also tied seven away games so far.
Setting up a Wembley date with Chelsea, Leeds eventually beat West Ham 4-2 on penalties after another away draw last week, booking their first FA Cup semi-final appearance for 39 years as Lucas Perri saved two spot-kicks.
However, Daniel Farke’s side have failed to score in their last four league games – the longest ongoing drought in England’s top tier – and only from January to March 1982 have Leeds ever gone longer without scoring.
That year, they went six in a row without finding the net and were ultimately relegated. A repeat remains possible after last month’s 0-0 draw with Brentford, which extended their current winless streak to six games.
Not only that, but Leeds have gone 12 away games without victory in the Premier League since beating Wolves in September; meanwhile, Manchester United are unbeaten in 18 home meetings with the Whites (W11 D7) since a 1-0 loss back in February 1981.
With 10 wins from 15 as the home side this season, Man Utd are also on a nine-match Premier League unbeaten streak at Old Trafford, where their captain has consistently shone throughout the bleakest of times.
Bruno Fernandes has already created 101 chances in the top flight this term, marking the third time he has hit a century in one campaign, after 2022-23 (119) and 2023-24 (114). Furthermore, Fernandes has been involved in eight goals from just six league appearances against Leeds (six goals, two assists), and the Portuguese playmaker will lead his team out again on Monday.
After signing a new contract, Harry Maguire will not be present – the defender’s late red card against Bournemouth means he must serve a suspension – so the return of Lisandro Martínez from injury is particularly timely as Matthijs de Ligt is also likely to miss out.
Leeds will be without Daniel James – plus Anton Stach and Joe Rodon, who sustained injuries in the FA Cup quarter-final – while Noah Okafor, Jaka Bijol and Gabriel Gudmundsson are all doubts.
Man Utd vs Leeds Head-to-Head
Leeds are winless in 10 Premier League meetings with Manchester United since a 1-0 home win in September 2002.
The most recent contest finished 1-1 in January, as Brenden Aaronson’s second-half opener was cancelled out by Matheus Cunha’s leveller less than three minutes later.
Man Utd have lost just one of their last 20 league games against Leeds (W12 D7) and are unbeaten in all five evening kick-offs throughout the Premier League era (W3 D2 – 7pm or later).
Man Utd vs Leeds Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes Manchester United strong favourites for victory, giving them a 61.7% probability of prevailing.
Leeds came out on top in far fewer of Opta’s 10,000 pre-match simulations, and their hopes of success are rated at 18.1%. That leaves a 20.2% chance of the points being shared.
Man Utd vs Leeds Predicted Lineups
Manchester United: Senne Lammens, Luke Shaw, Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro, Noussair Mazraoui, Kobbie Mainoo, Casemiro, Matheus Cunha, Bruno Fernandes, Amad Diallo, Bryan Mbeumo
Head Coach: Michael Carrick
Leeds United: Karl Darlow, James Justin, Pascal Struijk, Sebastiaan Bornauw, Jayden Bogle, Sean Longstaff, Ao Tanaka, Lukas Nmecha, Joël Piroe, Brenden Aaronson, Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Head coach: Daniel Farke
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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