Is Türkiye Now the Favorite to Win Group D Over USA?: 'They're a Proper Team'

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As far as results are concerned, things could have gone much better for the United States men's national team this past international window.

Not only did the U.S. lose both of their friendlies against Belgium and Portugal, but its path to the 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stage got notably more difficult with the introduction of Türkiye in Group D.

"I’ve been talking them up," David Mosse said on the latest episode of "State of the Union." "They’re a proper team. They got the quarterfinals of the Euros. The only reason they were in this playoff is because they were in the same group as Spain … I think that will be a tough, tough game for the U.S."

Türkiye punched its ticket to the World Cup with a 1-0 win over Kosovo in the final of the 2026 World Cup European playoffs. Its performance in the tournament saw it move from No. 25 to No. 22 in the latest FIFA men's world ranking. Meanwhile, the U.S. moved down from 15 to 16.

Kosovo vs. Türkiye | FIFA World Cup™ UEFA Qualifiers Highlights ⚽️ FOX Soccer

The United States won't see Türkiye until the final match of the group stage, but that arguably complicates things further for a U.S. team that has lost its last eight consecutive matches against European competition.

"That first game now for the U.S. is just absolutely paramount," Stone said. "Not that it hasn’t been in the beginning, but if you stumble out of the gates in L.A. against Paraguay — uh oh. And like a real big uh oh, because you have to get your business taken care of before you see Türkiye in L.A. to close out the group stage.

"I think Türkiye is the favorite. I think they’re going to win their first two games fairly comfortably. I think for the U.S., it’s going to be more of a struggle. Can they win those two games? Absolutely. Should the U.S. get through? Absolutely, but I think Türkiye is the favorite right now — right now. There’s a long time to go."

Lalas, meanwhile, is still bullish on the United States' chances of advancing — and winning — Group D.

"I would put this group against any other group in the past in terms of not just coming out, but winning the group," Lalas said. "I do think this team, despite the problems we're talking about right now, will rise to the occasion."

If the U.S. doesn't win Group D, its hopes of advancing to its first World Cup quarterfinals become much slimmer, even with the benefit of a home crowd.

"There is a massive advantage to winning your group," Stone said. "The path has been laid out, in red carpet fashion, for the U.S. and it’s all going on the fact that they win the group. Things get significantly more challenging if they don’t."

The U.S. wil play Türkiye at Los Angeles Stadium in its group stage finale on June 25.

"We welcome Türkiye to the World Cup, we welcome Türkiye, and we want to beat up on them," Lalas said.

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