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Can Arsenal hold their nerve? What history tells us…

by Ralph
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Mikel Arteta looks on from touchline thoughtfully
[Getty Images]
An image showing a bar chart titled 'Arsenal's mixed fortunes as leaders', comparing Arsenal's points lead after 23 games versus their final league position across the 2002-03 (five points, second place), 2003-04 (two points, first place), 2022-23 (two points, second place), and 2025-26 seasons (four points)
[BBC]

While it is too early in the season to have reached peak 'squeaky bum time', many Arsenal supporters are no doubt literally or figuratively shifting restlessly in their seats.

Sunday's home defeat by Manchester United was their third successive Premier League match without a win, and what appeared a commanding seven-point lead before the weekend has been reduced to a frailer-looking four. Such is the fickle nature of modern football.

But what does history tell us about Arsenal's title chances from what is still an enviable position?

An image showing a data table titled 'Arsenal advantage bodes well for title chances' with a sub-heading of 'Biggest Premier League points leads after 22 games,' highlighting Arsenal's seven-point lead in the 2025-26 season and Newcastle in 1995-96 and Manchester United in 1997-98 as the only other teams with this size lead or bigger to have not finished first
[BBC]

The Gunners have been Premier League leaders at this stage of a season on three previous occasions but only went on to lift the title once – the Invincibles season of 2003-04, when they finished unbeaten.

They had a two-point lead after 23 matches then. That was also the case in 2022-23, with Mikel Arteta's side extending their lead to eight points after 29 games, having played one more than Manchester City, only to capitulate during the run-in.

Arsenal's biggest advantage after 23 fixtures was a five-point lead in 2002-03. The term 'squeaky bum time' originated later that season when then Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson was seeking to heap pressure on the Gunners. The north London side duly stumbled, eventually finishing five points adrift as United regained the title.

The Premier League leaders have been at least four points clear at this stage of the season on 20 previous occasions – all but four of those went on to become champions.

Newcastle famously blew a 12-point lead in 1995-96, while Manchester United relinquished a five-point advantage over Arsenal in 1997-98 before the roles were reversed five years later. Liverpool held a four-point lead in 2019 and were unbeaten over their remaining 15 games, winning 11, but were still edged out by a relentless Manchester City.

If we rewind a week to when Arsenal's lead was seven points, no side this century has blown a comparable advantage after 22 matches. In Premier League history, only Newcastle in 1996 and Manchester United in 1998 – with respective leads of nine and seven points – have failed to win the title from a position similar to Arsenal's before last weekend.

Read more from Noel about what history tells us about Arsenal’s title chances here

Original Article

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