Table of Contents
The two Clásico rivals
are only separated by two points at the top of La Liga ahead of
their first meeting of the season. We look ahead to Sunday’s game
at the Santiago Bernabéu with our Real Madrid vs Barcelona
prediction and preview.
Real
Madrid vs Barcelona Prediction: The Key Stats
- The Opta supercomputer makes Real Madrid favourites to pull
further clear of Barcelona in La Liga, giving them a 45.3% chance
of a Clásico win, compared to the visitors’ 31.1%. - Barcelona are targeting a fifth straight win over Real Madrid
in all competitions, something they have only previously achieved
under Pep Guardiola, from 2008 to 2010. - Kylian Mbappé has scored 11 goals in eight appearances against
Barcelona in all competitions, including five in his four Clásicos
(all of which he has lost), his most against a non-French side in
his club career.
Barcelona
certainly had Real
Madrid‘s number last season, and now, as the Blaugrana prepare
to meet their historic rivals for the first time in 2025-26, a
slice of history is in their grasp.
En route to winning a La Liga, Copa del Rey and Supercopa de
España treble last season, Hansi Flick’s side recorded four
straight victories over Madrid. They beat their rivals 4-0 and 4-3
in the league, 3-2 in extra-time in the Copa del Rey final, and 5-2
in the Supercopa showpiece.
Barça could now match their longest-ever winning run against
Madrid in all competitions, having only previously ever won five
straight Clásicos under Pep Guardiola from 2008 to 2010.
Flick, meanwhile, is one of only two coaches to win his first
four matches in the entire history of the fixture, for either team.
The other, of course, was Guardiola, whose five consecutive
victories came in his first five Clásicos.
Barcelona are two points behind Real Madrid at the summit of La
Liga, having lost their most recent away game in the competition,
going down 4-1 at Sevilla.
They had not lost any of their previous 15 away games in the
competition (W11 D4) and have not lost on back-to-back road trips
since April 2024. Xavi oversaw those successive defeats, one of
which came by a 2-0 scoreline at the Bernabéu.
But since their chastening loss in Seville, Barça have edged out
Catalonian neighbours Girona 2-1 in La Liga and thumped 10-man
Olympiakos 6-1 in the Champions League, with Fermín
López getting a hat-trick in that latter game and Marcus
Rashford scoring twice. That treble made López the first
Spaniard to score a hat-trick for Barcelona in the Champions
League.
Rashford, meanwhile, will be desperate to get his first taste of
El Clásico this week, and his nine goal involvements in all
competitions this term (five goals, four assists) are the most of
any Barça player, one ahead of Lamine
Yamal (three goals, five assists).
But he has plenty of competition for a starting berth, despite
Robert Lewandowski and Dani Olmo being on the injury list. Raphinha
(three goals, two assists in all competitions), Ferran
Torres (five goals, one assist) and López (five goals) have all
contributed this term, helping Barcelona score 33 goals already in
2025-26. Only Bayern Munich (44) have more in all competitions
among teams from Europe’s top five leagues.
Twenty-four of Barça’s goals have come in La Liga, the most in
the competition, while they have also hit the woodwork the most of
any team in Spain’s top flight, doing so 10 times.
This is only the second time since Opta records began in 2003-04
that a team has struck the woodwork at least 10 times in their
first nine games of a season in La Liga, after Barcelona themselves
last term (11).
While the Blaugrana’s attackers have caught the eye already this
term, they trail Real Madrid in the table by two points. A 5-2
derby defeat to Atlético Madrid represents the only loss since
the summer’s Club World Cup for Xabi Alonso in his debut campaign
as Los Blancos boss.
They were also victorious in the Champions League in midweek,
beating Juventus 1-0 to maintain their perfect start in Europe,
courtesy of Jude
Bellingham‘s first goal of the season.
Bellingham underwent shoulder surgery following the Club World
Cup and missed the start of Madrid’s campaign, but others have come
to the fore in his absence.
Arda
Güler has eight goal involvements this season, scoring three
and assisting five, with only Kylian
Mbappé (15 goals, 2 assists) and Vinícius
Júnior (5 goals, 4 assists) contributing to more goals for
Alonso’s side.
Among all players from Europe’s top five leagues, only Harry
Kane (20 goals) has outscored Mbappé this season, and the Frenchman
scored a hat-trick in the most recent Clásico, albeit in a losing
effort as Barcelona triumphed 4-3 to inch closer to the title in
May.
Mbappé has scored 11 goals in eight appearances against
Barcelona in all competitions during his career with both Madrid
and Paris Saint-Germain, netting five times in four Clásicos – but
he has lost every one of those meetings. His tally of 11 goals is
the most he has scored against a single non-French team in his club
career.
Vinícius, meanwhile, leads all players in La Liga for touches in
the opposition area this season, with 79. His two closest rivals
could also feature on Sunday, with Mbappé on 74 and Rashford on
56.
Right-backs Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dani Carvajal are both
doubtful for the hosts, giving Alonso a potential selection
dilemma, while Antonio Rüdiger and David Alaba are out.
Alonso will be hoping to buck the trend of Real Madrid managers
struggling on their Clásico debuts. Seven of the last eight Madrid
coaches have lost their first meeting with Barça in La Liga, with
the exception being Zinedine Zidane, who won 2-1 at Camp Nou in
April 2016.
Madrid have won their last eight home games in the league and
could win nine in a row for the first time since February 2015,
with that nine-game streak coming in Carlo Ancelotti’s first stint
in charge.
Real
Madrid vs Barcelona Head-to-Head
Though Barcelona won their four meetings with Real Madrid last
season, Los Blancos can point to a stronger recent head-to-head
record if only matches in La Liga are considered.
Madrid have won seven of their last 11 La Liga clashes with
Barcelona (L4), achieving the same number of victories as in their
previous 29 Clásico matches in the competition (D7 L15).
None of the last 11 meetings between Madrid (7 wins) and
Barcelona (4) in La Liga have ended in a draw. This is the longest
run without a draw in El Clásico in the competition since a streak
of 18 matches between 1977 and 1986 (10 wins for Madrid, eight for
Barcelona).
Real
Madrid vs Barcelona Prediction
Real Madrid have quietly ticked along under Alonso so far, but
after losing to Atlético last month, they will be determined
to pick up a statement win over another rival.
Across the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations,
Madrid were victorious in 45.3%, with Barcelona winning in 31.1%
and 23.6% finishing all square.
In our 2025-26 La Liga
season predictions, Madrid are now favourites for the title,
topping the pile in 57.1% of simulations.
Barça are given a 37.4% chance of retaining their crown, but
those hopes may drop further if they are unable to come away from
the Bernabéu with a result.
Real
Madrid vs Barcelona Predicted Lineups
Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois, Federico
Valverde, Raúl Asencio, Éder Militão, Álvaro Carreras, Aurélien
Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga, Jude Bellingham, Franco Mastantuono,
Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé.
Head coach: Xabi Alonso
Barcelona: Wojciech Szczesny, Jules Koundé, Pau
Cubarsi, Eric García, Alejandro Balde, Marc Casadó, Pedri, Fermín
López, Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, Marcus Rashford.
Head coach: Hansi Flick
Opta
Power Rankings
The Opta
Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that
assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on
a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team
in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking
for both sides.
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