Table of Contents
Updated ranks: QB | RB | WR| TE | DEF | K | Top 200 | Rookies | Mock draft
Well, it’s almost here. The moment you’ve been waiting all spring and summer for … fantasy football draft day is soon to arrive, and let's say you have the No. 1 overall pick. It’s an advantageous spot because, of course, you have your choice of every single NFL player in Round 1.
In other words … you're getting THE stud.
On the flip side, you’ll have a bit of a wait before your second and third picks, your fourth and fifth picks and so on. Of course, you’ll also have have back-to-back picks throughout the draft. As a result, it’s imperative to have a good strategy in mind in order to build a strong roster.
To help you draft the best possible fantasy football squad from the first overall pick, here’s a look into my head (scary, I know) and the decisions I would make in a 15-round draft. Also, I’ll give you some of the players I’d most like to target in a best-case scenario based on FootballGuys’ average draft position data, which uses cumulative ADP info from several different platforms.
For this exercise, I'm allowing myself only a five-spot differential from the actual pick number. So for the No. 24 overall pick, I can't draft anyone lower than No. 19 based on ADP. Any players above that are fair game. This is a good way to keep the results and my picks realistic.
Since all drafts are different, be sure to use my positional tiers (above) to help make round-by-round decisions. That way, even if you don’t get a specific player I’ve listed below, you’ll know the alternative options who are close in value who you can turn to as an “audible” selection.
Note: The first pick in each round is based on my top 200 players list.
Rounds 1 and 2
There is no consensus No. 1 overall pick, as it’s really a personal-preference decision between Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs. I have the former ranked at No. 1, but both are home runs.
Fab's ideal Round 1 pick (No. 1): Bijan Robinson
In Round 2, I’m taking the best running back and/or wide receiver on the board. Based on current ADP data, I’ll have my choice of backs such as Derrick Henry, Kenneth Walker III and Jeremiyah Love and wideouts such as Nico Collins, George Pickens and A.J. Brown. Or I could take Trey McBride or Brock Bowers if I want a top-two tight end, but I prefer to wait a few rounds before filling that position. In the end, I’m probably taking a wide receiver, in this case Collins.
Fab's ideal Round 2 pick (No. 24): Nico Collins
Rounds 3 and 4
I’m likely going wide receiver here unless a running back falls that’s too good to pass on. Regardless, the best available players in this sort of scenario could be Brown or Pickens. So whoever is still on the board will be the selection. I’ll go with the former.
Fab's ideal Round 3 pick (No. 25): A.J. Brown
The wait to pick in Round 4 is long and difficult, as there will be no shortage of studs flying off the board. The good news is you have back-to-back picks again, so you can go running back and wideout in Rounds 4 and 5. Based on ADP, I would be thrilled to grab Luther Burden III.
Fab's ideal Round 4 pick (No. 48): Luther Burden III
Rounds 5 and 6
With a running back and three wideouts on my team, I’m next going after a No. 2 back. I might also consider Colts tight end Tyler Warren depending on what’s left among runners. Ultimately, I’m going with Quinshon Judkins if he’s available. He’s one of my favorite breakout backs, so it would be tough for me to pass on him. If Judkins were gone, I’d take Warren or Bucs RB Bucky Irving.
Fab's ideal Round 5 pick (No. 49): Quinshon Judkins
I currently have two running backs and three wideouts. That means I’m going with the best available player at running back or receiver in Round 6. I’ll also start to look at what’s still on the board at tight end, though I’m unlikely to take one this early unless someone has fallen to the point where I can’t resist. Based on ADP, though, this will likely be a third running back … Jaylen Warren is still available and would be a strong option.
Fab's ideal Round 6 pick (No. 72): Jaylen Warren
Rounds 7 and 8
In the event that I didn’t take Tyler Warren in Round 5, I’m taking a hard look at tight end here. If Tucker Kraft or Harold Fannin Jr. are on the board, sign me up. Since I don’t have another pick for a while, it makes sense to grab one of those players in the seventh round.
Fab's ideal Round 7 picks (No. 73): Tucker Kraft or Harold Fannin Jr.
After a long wait, I’m back with two picks … and I’m looking hard at quarterbacks. In fact, one of the next two picks will absolutely be a signal-caller, and I bet I’ll be able to land either Bo Nix or Brock Purdy (I’m guessing Dak Prescott will be gone). Regardless, I’ll be happy with the pick.
Fab's ideal Round 8 pick (No. 96): Bo Nix
Rounds 9 and 10
Depending on what the draft board is showing me, I might go with my second quarterback here … that would be Purdy, in this case. However, I would be more inclined to go with another back or wideout if someone like Rachaad White, J.K. Dobbins or Jordan Addison were available. In this scenario, I’ll go with White as this fantasy team’s No. 4 running back.
Fab’s ideal Round 9 pick (No. 97): Rachaad White
I’m looking at a quarterback, a running back or a tight end with the next two picks. ADP data tells me I can grab Baker Mayfield or breakout candidate Tyler Shough … or maybe if I’m lucky, Kyler Murray—and I’m feeling lucky! I’m pretty happy with my Nix/Murray quarterback platoon.
Fabs' ideal Round 10 picks (No. 120): Kyler Murray
Rounds 11 and 12
I want to grab a fifth wide receiver at this point, and the best players available based on ADP are KC Concepcion, Matthew Golden or Jayden Higgins. I'll go with the rookie, who could be a top-two receiver in terms of targets in Cleveland.
Fab's ideal Round 11 pick (No. 121): KC Concepcion
I'm starting to think about grabbing Brian Robinson Jr. at this point, as I want to have insurance in case Bijan Robinson misses time (God, please no). However, based on ADP data, I think I can wait until the next round to grab him. As a result, I'll grab my second tight end, Juwan Johnson.
Fab's ideal Round 12 pick (No. 144): Juwan Johnson
Round 13-plus
Some folks might think I’m crazy, but I’m 100 percent taking Brandon Aubrey with the first pick in Round 13 if he’s available. He has scored a combined 407 points over the past two years in leagues that use fractional scoring. That ranks Aubrey 15th among running backs, 19th among wide receivers and third among tight ends. And, if we included Aubrey in the flex conversation, he would rank 35th overall … ahead of such stars as Devonta Smith, Javonte Williams, Wan’Dale Robinson, George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf and Kenneth Walker III.
In the final two rounds, I’m going with the aforementioned Brian Robinson Jr, or the best player available at either running back or wide receiver, and finally, I’ll take my defense. If I can get a high-end unit like the Texans or Rams in the 14th round, I’ll do that … but I think that’s highly unlikely based on current ADP data.
Final Roster (13 Picks)
QBs – Bo Nix, Kyler Murray
RBs – Bijan Robinson, Quinshon Judkins, Jaylen Warren, Rachaad White
WRs – Nico Collins, A.J. Brown, Luther Burden III, KC Concepcion
TEs – Tucker Kraft or Harold Fannin Jr, Juwan Johnson
K – Brandon Aubrey
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MICHAEL FABIANO
Michael Fabiano is a fantasy football analyst for Sports Illustrated. His weekly rankings and Start 'Em, Sit 'Em articles are must-reads for fantasy players. Before joining SI in August 2020, he worked for CBS Sports, NFL Network and SiriusXM. He also contributes to Westwood One Radio and the Locked on Dynasty Podcast. Fabiano was the first fantasy analyst to appear on one of the four major TV networks and is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Fame.
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