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Patrick Everson FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Six weeks ago, sportsbooks across the U.S. harbored high hopes of strong betting engagement on World Cup odds.
And as the tournament ended Sunday, with Spain beating Argentina 1-0 in overtime in the final, those hopes were greatly exceeded.
Neil Walsh, Hard Rock Bet’s Senior Vice President-Sportsbook, certainly spoke for many operators.
"This World Cup will go down as the biggest betting event in American history. We're talking the equivalent of 10 Super Bowls," Walsh said. "A sport we were once told Americans would not embrace turned into one for the history books.
"The whole country wanted in."
Oddsmakers from across the nation chime in on how the books and the bettors did on Spain vs. Argentina odds and World Cup wagering as a whole.
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Result Punishes the Public
Several bookmakers weighed in pre-match on Sunday, noting that underdog Argentina was taking the bulk of action in both of the key markets.
Lionel Messi & Co. were popular with the public betting masses on the three-way moneyline — to win the match in 90 minutes plus injury time — and Argentina was the popular play in the To Lift The Trophy market, which includes overtime and, if necessary, a penalty-kick shootout.
So bettors first got beat up by the 0-0 regulation draw. That meant the books scooped up all the Spain and Argentina money in the three-way market.
Then Spain went up 1-0 on Ferran Torres’ goal in the 106th minute, and made it hold up for the rest of overtime. That squelched all the Argentina To Lift The Trophy bets.
"That was about our best-case scenario, when factoring in the game result, props, futures, etc.," said John Murray, vice president of The SuperBook. "It was a very good finish to the tournament for us."
On Friday, Caesars Sports head of soccer trading Mark Bickerdike said overtime was absolutely the book’s rooting interest.
"Let’s see 120 minutes on that clock."
Further, Caesars wanted Spain. So Bickerdike got his wish on both counts.
"A 0-0 draw through regulation time meant it was a good day for the book," Bickerdike said postgame. "Bettors favored Argentina in both the [three-way] betting and To Lift The Trophy markets, pre-match and in-play.
"There were also plenty of tickets written on Lionel Messi and Lamine Yamal to score, resulting in positive outcomes across our straight-bet markets and same-game parlay product."
Records Tumble Again
With each big match — all the USA contests, England vs. Mexico in the Round of 16, and the riveting quarterfinals and semifinals — Caesars Sports saw records made and then broken for tickets and money wagered.
Then the Spain-Argentina championship match outdid all the previous marks set since June 11 in this 48-team tournament.
"The World Cup final delivered the biggest soccer betting event in Caesars Sportsbook history," Bickerdike said. "Interest was off the charts before kickoff, with pre-match wagering already surpassing our previous tournament record.
"By the final whistle, the match had set new Caesars records for total handle, total wagers and unique bettors."
In fact, the total handle — the overall amount of money wagered — was a record by a mile, eclipsing the dramatic England-Mexico match.
"Handle finished nearly 65% higher than our previous record game, underscoring the extraordinary interest in soccer's biggest match and the incredible momentum we saw throughout the tournament," Bickerdike said.
DraftKings Director of Sportsbook Operations Johnny Avello noted the match was a huge cap to a massively well-bet tournament overall. And though Avello didn’t get specific, it sounds as if DraftKings did well.
"The tournament is over, but we haven’t come down from our month-long high on World Cup soccer," Avello said. "The biggest event of the year had its peaks and valleys. But overall, wow!"
Fantastic Futures
If you had a championship futures bet on Spain, then step up and claim your prize.
Thankfully, I did, at +450 pre-tournament.
Spain certainly garnered a fair amount of bets, but for most books, Argentina was the bigger liability to win it all, as the bandwagon got larger and larger with all the stunning late-match heroics en route to the final.
Alas, Messi & Co. couldn’t nail down a second straight World Cup championship. So the bookmakers won in the futures market, as well.
"The futures were good. A great end to a very profitable World Cup," Circa Sports director of operations Jeff Benson said. "It was a nice bonus for what otherwise would be a slow summer."
Added Bickerdike: "Spain lifting the trophy was also a favorable result for us in the futures markets, as interest in them slowed during the tournament. Particularly after their early draw against Cape Verde.
"That said, there will be plenty of happy bettors who backed Spain before the tournament, as Spain was our second-most-wagered team heading into the competition."
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
Major matches bring major wagers, and the World Cup finale didn’t disappoint.
Among the largest plays was one reportedly made by Drake: a whopping $1.5 million on Argentina.
It’s a good thing Drake is among those rare few who can lose that kind of money and not even notice.
Hopefully the same holds true for a DraftKings Sportsbook customer who also went in heavy on Messi & Co. Back on June 17, just a week into the tournament, the bettor put $250,000 on Argentina +850 to win the World Cup.
If Argentina went the distance, then the bettor would’ve won $2.125 million. Alas, the wager became a six-figure donation to the house.
On prediction markets, there were a couple of risk-a-lot-to-make-a-little trades.
Over the past few days, you might recall seeing that someone posted on X five years ago, saying Argentina beat Spain 3-2 in the 2026 World Cup final. That led to a slew of wagers on that actually happening Sunday.
A Polymarket customer went the other way, with a $1.55 million trade that the final score would not be Argentina 3, Spain 2. At a price of 97% — which equates to odds of -3233 — that trade profited $44,772, for a total payout of $1,597,219.
Also at Polymarket, a customer put $318,255 on Messi to not score two or more goals vs. Spain. Obviously, the Argentine superstar was shut out, and the trader netted $29,337 profit (total payout $347,592).
Other notable wagers:
- $100,000 Spain +123 to beat Argentina in regulation (Caesars). Spain won, but did so in overtime, so that bet is a loser.
- $100,000 Spain +550 to win the World Cup (Hard Rock). The bet was made June 17, and the customer rode Spain all the way to a profit of $550,000 (total payout $650,000).
- $75,000 Argentina +150 To Lift The Trophy (SuperBook). That’s another donation to the house.
- $58,000 Spain -145 to win the World Cup (Caesars). That’s a winner, profiting $40,000 (total payout $98,000).
- $50,000 Messi +170 to score in the final (Hard Rock). No goals for Messi this time, on another losing ticket.
Parlay Partay
Small bets that win big are even more likable than big bets. They’re certainly more relatable to us average Joes and Janes.
A FanDuel Sportsbook customer notched a nice win and perhaps could’ve won a lot more, but refused to look a gift horse in the mouth.
Way back on Feb. 9, the bettor put together a six-leg parlay, combining NBA and NHL futures with a World Cup future. The goal: To turn a measly $2.01 into $8,880.55.
Odds of all six teams hitting were a humongous +441718, or just beyond 4417/1. By the time the World Cup began, Spain was all that remained to cash that ticket.
But on Saturday, the bettor opted to take a cashout offer from FanDuel, for $4,434,27. That’s some insane ROI on a two-dollar bet.
Finally, file this under "Timing Is Everything." Prior to Saturday’s England vs. France third-place match, a Caesars customer put five bucks on the correct final score being England 5, France 3.
The odds on that were a hefty +42500, or 425/1, for a potential profit of $2,125. No one in their right mind expected eight goals, never mind the 10 goals ultimately scored in England’s 6-4 victory.
However, in the 87th minute, Bukayo Saka completed his hat trick by converting a penalty kick to put England up 5-3.
Presciently, the bettor then opted to take Caesars’ cashout offer of $1,206. Smart move, because in the sixth minute of second-half injury time, Ousmane Dembélé scored for France to make it 5-4, which would’ve killed that bet.
Two minutes later, Jude Bellingham knocked it in for England to account for the 6-4 final.
It’s all in the timing.
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