History Says To Expect Many Goals In The World Cup Final

Expect some goals in the World Cup final. At least, that’s what history says.

In the 22 previous World Cup men's finals (which would include the 1950 match between Uruguay and Brazil that technically wasn’t a final, but decided who won the World Cup), the winning team has averaged 2.6 goals in the title matchup. The losing team has averaged 1.1 goals.

The two most recent World Cup finals have been offensive slugfests, with a combined 12 goals. France beat Croatia 4-2 in 2018, while Argentina and France tied 3-3 in 2022 (before Argentina prevailed in a penalty shootout).

Teams scoring at least two goals have won the World Cup title 17 times; there have been eight instances of a team scoring at least two goals in the final and still falling short.

There have been three 1-0 wins: West Germany over Argentina in 1990, Spain over Netherlands in 2010 and Germany over Argentina in 2014. And there was one 0-0 tie in a final; Brazil wound up winning over Italy in a penalty shootout the 1994 final, which had been the only one played on U.S. soil before now.

Scaloni looking to join elite club

If Argentina wins Sunday, Lionel Scaloni — who led the team’s push to the 2022 title — would be just the second person to coach two World Cup championship clubs.

Italy went back-to-back as World Cup champions in 1934 and 1938, with both those clubs coached by Vittorio Pozzo.

Nobody else has two titles as a coach. There are three men — Brazil’s Mário Zagallo, West Germany’s Franz Beckenbauer and France’s Didier Deschamps — to have won World Cups as both a player and a coach.

Messi matters

When he takes the field Sunday, Argentina star Lionel Messi will be the oldest field player to appear in a World Cup final.

Messi is 39. Sweden’s Gunnar Gren was 37 when he played against Brazil in the 1958 final.

The only player older than Messi to play in a final was Italy goalkeeper Dino Zoff — who was 40 when his club beat West Germany for the 1982 crown. But among field players, Messi will stand alone as the oldest after Sunday.

Messi is also in position to join Brazil’s Cafu as the only person to play in three World Cup men’s finals. And since Cafu was a reserve in one of his appearances, Messi would be the first to start the title game on three occasions.

For Spain, youth may be served. Experience may, too.

Youth may be served by Spain in this World Cup final. And if La Roja prevails, experience would also have paid off.

It’s an interesting mix.

Spain is slated to have two teenagers — Lamine Yamal and Pau Cubarsi, a pair of 19-year-olds — play Sunday against Argentina in the World Cup final, and no team has ever had more than one teen in the lineup and won the title.

So, that's the power of youth.

Here’s the flip side of that: If Spain wins, coach Luis de la Fuente — who is 65 — would become the oldest World Cup-winning sideline boss, passing Vicente del Bosque, who was 59 when Spain won its first title in 2010.

For the record, teenagers enter Sunday unbeaten in World Cup finals, according to FIFA, which says only three have ever played in soccer’s biggest game. Pelé was 17 when he helped Brazil win the final over Sweden in 1958, Giuseppe Bergomi was 18 when Italy beat West Germany in 1982, and Kylian Mbappé was 19 when France beat Croatia in 2018.

Spain seeking record streak

Spain is 28-0-9 in its last 37 matches, which has tied Italy for the longest unbeaten run by a European men’s national team.

Italy also went 28-0-9 from October 2018 through September 2021 — before losing to Spain 2-1 on Oct. 6, 2021 in Milan.

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Argentina has a streak worth noting as well. It has won seven consecutive World Cup matches, tied with Italy for the second-longest such run in men's tournament history. Only Brazil, which won 11 straight spanning 2002 and 2006, has a longer World Cup winning streak.

Argentina-Spain history

The game is just the second head-to-head meeting in a World Cup between Argentina and Spain. Argentina won 2-1 in the 1966 group stage.

Across all competitions and friendlies, the sides have played 14 times. Each has won six times and they tied twice.

Reporting by The Associated Press.

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