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Even though France’s World Cup title hopes ended with Tuesday’s 2-0 semifinal loss to Spain, Kylian Mbappé has not been eliminated from the Golden Boot race.
France will still play in Saturday’s third-place match, and any goals scored in that game count toward the Golden Boot standings. Les Bleus will face the loser of Wednesday’s semifinal between England and Argentina.
As things stand, Mbappé and Lionel Messi are tied for the tournament lead with eight goals apiece. If they finish level on goals, the Golden Boot will be decided by FIFA’s tiebreakers:
- Most assists: The player with more assists wins.
- Fewest minutes played: If assists are also tied, the award goes to the player who scored their goals in fewer minutes.
Mbappé currently holds the edge with three assists compared to Messi’s two.
Mbappé has logged 609 minutes through seven matches, while Messi has played 531 minutes through six. If Messi plays at least 79 minutes against England on Wednesday, he will overtake Mbappé in total minutes played, meaning the minutes tiebreaker would also favor the French star.
Despite the semifinal loss, Kylian Mbappé is +180 to win the Golden Boot award (Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images).
So what does Mbappé need to do to win a second straight Golden Boot?
Right now, his clearest path is for the standings to remain exactly as they are. If Messi does not score or record another assist in Argentina’s remaining matches, Mbappé would win the award on the assists tiebreaker if both finish with eight goals. Of course, England's Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham or Spain's Mikel Oyarzabal surpass them both.
However, if Messi adds either a goal or an assist in Wednesday’s semifinal, Mbappé would likely need to respond in France’s third-place match to keep his repeat Golden Boot hopes alive.
Let's take a look at the updated Golden Boot odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as of July 14.
Current Golden Boot Winner Odds:
Lionel Messi: -160 (bet $10 to win $26.50 total)
Kylian Mbappé: +180 (bet $10 to win $28 total)
Harry Kane: +950 (bet $10 to win $105 total)
Jude Bellingham: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Mikel Oyarzabal: +12500 (bet $10 to win $1,260 total)
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