Table of Contents
Super Bowl road maps: Jaguars| Bears| Browns| Dolphins| Packers| Lions| Texans| Vikings| Falcons| Chiefs| Buccaneers| Bengals| Steelers| Colts| Rams
Welcome to Super Bowl LXI road maps, where we look at every team’s chances of winning it all in 2026. We’ll analyze the summer optimism before providing a reality check of what’s to come. Next path to assess: the Panthers.
The Panthers were one of the NFL’s surprise teams last year. In fact, they were a few minutes away from upsetting the Rams at home in the NFC wild-card round, a game in which they were 10.5-point underdogs.
And yet, while the 34–31 defeat was noteworthy, so too is the fact that despite being a division winner, the Panthers were 8–9 entering the postseason.
This past offseason, Carolina added pieces through free agency and the draft, signing All-Pro linebacker Devin Lloyd and edge rusher Jaelan Phillips. In April, the Panthers used their first-round pick on Georgia tackle Monroe Freeling, who will battle with former Packers left tackle Rasheed Walker for the starting job as Ikem Ekwonu recovers from a ruptured patellar tendon.
Still, whether Carolina can build on its surprising playoff appearance will primarily depend on fourth-year quarterback Bryce Young proving he’s not a bust after being selected No. 1 in 2023. Without significant development from Young, little else will make the Panthers a legitimate contender.
Leadership
It’s Year 3 for coach Dave Canales, who is trying to establish his program after winning the NFC South last season.
Canales served as the Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator in 2023 after 13 years with the Seahawks, and the 45-year-old has shown the ability to win without top-tier talent. While the run game was excellent last year, led by 1,000-yard back Rico Dowdle, the passing game was limited, with Young throwing for 3,011 yards and 23 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. Still, Canales coaxed eight wins from Carolina, good enough to win the league’s weakest division due to the best head-to-head win percentage among the three tied teams, as they went 3–1 against the Buccaneers and Falcons.
Defensively, coordinator Ejiro Evero is trying to get his program going, and now has the pieces to do it with the additions of Lloyd and Phillips joining Derrick Brown and Nic Scourton in the front seven.
Evero was in charge of the Broncos’ seventh-ranked defense in 2022 before moving to Carolina. The following year, the Panthers went 2–15, but the defense was fourth in yards against despite ranking 29th in points allowed. The bottom fell out in ’24 with Carolina sitting last in both categories, but the unit bounced back last season, coming in 16th in yards.
Now with the most talent he’s had in Charlotte, Evero could be calling a top-10 defense once more.
Most influential roster move
Adding Lloyd might be one of the steals of the offseason, provided he can keep up his 2025 level.
Lloyd was trending in the direction of a bust coming into 2024, with the Jaguars declining his fifth-year option. Then, the 235-pound linebacker had the best year of his career, earning September Defensive Player of the Month honors before finishing the season as a second-team All-Pro.
In 17 games last season with Jacksonville, Lloyd totaled 81 tackles, 10 quarterback hits, five interceptions, seven passes defensed, six tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks. It was a dominant showing in the middle of the Jaguars’ defense, helping them to a 13–4 record and the AFC South title. Jacksonville loved Lloyd’s presence in the building and his play on the field, but, ultimately, decided to let him hit the open market with other stars slated for free agency in the next two years.
While Carolina’s $42 million investment in Lloyd isn’t meager, it’s also nowhere near the cost for Phillips, an edge rusher with myriad questions (more on that below). If Lloyd has truly leveled up and didn’t have a fluke season, his signing will be a wise move for the Panthers.
Why this offseason move won’t work
Paying Phillips $120 million over four years is an enormous gamble.
Phillips, 27, has never had 10 sacks in a season. In his five-year career with the Dolphins and Eagles, he has amassed more than 16 quarterback hits only once. The injury risk is also massive, as Phillips has dealt with a rash of injuries, including a torn Achilles, torn ACL and a medical retirement in college football due to multiple concussions.
Last season, Phillips was finally healthy after missing 22 of 34 games the prior two years, playing 17 games for Miami and Philadelphia. The result was Phillips finishing with only five sacks but ranking 11th with 63 quarterback pressures despite 395 pass-rush snaps, the fewest of any player in the top 12 of total pressures.
Phillips has immense talent and terrific underlying metrics, but his past health issues and lack of top-line production are blaring sirens.
Breakout player candidate: Nic Scourton, edge
Scourton was talked about as a potential first-round pick a year ago, but ultimately went No. 51 to Carolina out of Texas A&M. With the Panthers looking for more pass rush after posting 32 sacks in 2024 to rank 29th in the league, Scourton was immediately given a starting role.
While playing 68% of the defensive snaps, Scourton posted five sacks and nine quarterback hits, ranking first and second, respectively, on the team. Diving a bit deeper into the numbers, Scourton failed to register a quarterback hit in each of his first six games before getting comfortable with the pro game.
Furthermore, those initial half-dozen games saw Scourton notch only six pressures. In the last 11 games of his rookie season, he totaled 25 pressures while having a pressure rate of at least 10% in six games, something he had done only once before Week 7.
With the addition of Phillips on the other side and factoring in another offseason in Evero’s defense, the more experienced Scourton could be poised to become one of the better edge rushers in the NFL.
Missing piece
The Panthers desperately need another weapon on the perimeter. They struck gold with 2025 first-round pick Tetairoa McMillan, who tore up the league with 70 receptions, 1,014 yards and seven touchdowns.
Unfortunately for Carolina, no other receiver amassed even 40 catches or 400 yards. Last year, the Jets were the only other team to not have at least two players with at least 400 receiving yards.
While the recently extended Jalen Coker and 2024 first-rounder Xavier Legette are nice pieces, neither is a quality option as a first or second wideout on an explosive offense. As things stand, McMillan is going to draw rolled coverages and double teams on obvious passing downs, while Coker, Legette and tight end Tommy Tremble are asked to produce. That’s a winning strategy for the defense.
While Carolina did select Chris Brazzell II in the third round and signed veteran John Metchie III in free agency, those moves aren’t enough to bolster a receiving corps in dire need of more talent.
Realistic outlook
This is going to be a more challenging year than 2025 for the Panthers.
Carolina will now face a first-place schedule, including games against the grueling AFC and NFC North divisions, along with the Seahawks, Broncos and Eagles. Of their nondivision games, the Panthers don’t have a win probability above 41% in any contest and are expected to win just twice. While Carolina is going to win more than two games, it could be a stretch to win eight again unless Young becomes a league-average (or better) quarterback.
To get there, Young has to improve almost every aspect of his game. In 2025, he ranked 28th in EPA, directly behind Jacoby Brissett and Tua Tagovailoa. He was also 28th in EPA per dropback (minus-0.08) and 30th in yards per attempt (6.3) while still being one of 10 quarterbacks with at least 11 interceptions.
Carolina’s roster is better, but the holes remain glaring and so does the issue at the sport’s paramount position.
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MATT VERDERAME
Matt Verderame is a national NFL staff writer for Sports Illustrated, writing features, columns and more. Before joining Sports Illustrated in March 2023, Verderame wrote for FanSided and SB Nation. He’s a proud husband to Stephanie and father of two girls, Maisy and Genevieve. In his spare time, Verderame is an avid collector of vintage baseball cards.
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