Table of Contents
Super Bowl road maps: Jaguars| Bears| Browns| Dolphins| Packers| Lions| Texans| Vikings| Falcons| Chiefs| Buccaneers| Bengals|Steelers
Welcome to Super Bowl LXI road maps, where we look at every team’s chances of winning it all in 2026. We’ll analyze the summer optimism before providing a reality check of what’s to come. Next path to assess: the Colts.
In 2026, no team had a more inspiring start and a more depressing finish than the Colts.
After beginning the year 7–2, Indianapolis traded a pair of first-round picks for corner Sauce Gardner, signaling the belief it was ready for serious contention. From that point on, the Colts went 1–7, including 0–4 once quarterback Daniel Jones sustained a torn Achilles in Week 14 at Jacksonville.
With Jones returning on a two-year deal but far from certain to be under center when Indianapolis hosts the Ravens in the Sept. 13 season opener, the Colts have questions. They also have plenty that don’t revolve around Jones, including a remade offensive line, whether a second-round rookie can be the brains of the defense, and whether the loss of Michael Pittman Jr. can be covered up by others ascending.
But we start on the sidelines, where Indianapolis has more stability than most.
Leadership
This could be a make-or-break season for coach Shane Steichen, who is entering his fourth year. Steichen came over from the Eagles after helping them reach Super Bowl LVII as their offensive coordinator. While the process has been good, the results haven’t followed.
Many around the league point to Steichen as an innovative mind. He has done a nice job of marrying run and pass concepts while featuring running back Jonathan Taylor and tight end Tyler Warren. However, the lack of a top-flight quarterback has held him back. Since taking the job in 2023, Steichen has seen a staggering six quarterbacks start at least one game for him, including Riley Leonard, Philip Rivers, Gardner Minshew II, Anthony Richardson and Jones.
The result is a career record of 25–26 and no playoff appearances. Now under the ownership of Carlie Irsay-Gordon for a second season, Steichen might face increased scrutiny from within as she settles into her role.
On the defensive side, Indianapolis is in terrific hands with coordinator Lou Anarumo. The 59-year-old Staten Island native is one of the best in his position, able to play a variety of styles while sticking to a 4–3 base. After spending six seasons with the Bengals in the same role, Anarumo came to the Colts last year and saw the unit rank 16th in yards allowed per play and 11th in red zone defense despite working with a roster featuring zero (non-alternate) Pro Bowl players.
Most influential roster move
Trading middle linebacker Zaire Franklin to the Packers for defensive tackle Colby Wooden is a huge gamble. In 2024, Franklin was not only a Pro Bowler but also a second-team All-Pro while leading the NFL with 173 total tackles. Last year, his numbers dipped to 125 tackles and two sacks, but he remains one of the more durable and productive middle linebackers in the game, having missed just a single contest in eight seasons.
By trading Franklin, Indianapolis created a major need inside and attempted to fill it with second-round pick CJ Allen from Georgia. Allen started 30 games over three years with the Bulldogs, showing chops in coverage (10 total passes defensed) while also leading Georgia with 88 tackles last year. Overall, he racked up 13.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks while taking home All-American honors as a junior.
If Allen can step in and assume a major role at 21 years old, the Colts will have gotten younger, cheaper and more explosive at the second level while also adding some veteran depth up front in Wooden. However, if Allen isn’t ready, Anarumo will be forced to work around a considerable hurdle.
Why this offseason move won’t work
Trading Pittman was the byproduct of re-signing Alec Pierce, signing the deep threat to a four-year, $114 million deal. While Pierce had 17 explosive plays last year compared to Pittman’s five, the problem lies in what the Colts lost in other areas.
With Pittman, Indianapolis had a receiver willing to use his 223-pound frame in the run game, allowing Steichen to draw up plays with Pittman as the key figure. Without him, it’ll be much harder to fool defenses into thinking one play is coming and actually run another. Pittman was the offense’s versatile chess piece and one of the more physical wideouts in the game.
It’s reasonable to think the trio of Pierce, Josh Downs and Warren can make up much of the lost receiving production from Pittman, but it’s going to be a far tougher challenge to replicate him in ways that don’t show up in the box score.
Breakout player candidate: Josh Downs, WR
Downs was a good bet to become a breakout player last year after posting 72 catches for 803 yards and five touchdowns in 2024, but it didn’t materialize.
With the addition of a first-round pass catcher in Warren, Downs found himself further down the pecking order, resulting in career lows for targets (88), catches (58) and yards (566). However, with Pittman having been dealt to the Steelers, Downs stands to be the beneficiary.
While Pierce had 1,003 yards last year, he did so on just 47 catches, the lowest total for a 1,000-yard receiver since DeSean Jackson also had 47 receptions in 2010. Meanwhile, Pittman amassed 111 targets a season ago, and although some will be spread between Pierce and Warren, Downs has a terrific chance to see more than 107, which, to this point, is a career high.
Missing piece
This could be the same few paragraphs every year since the shocking retirement of Andrew Luck in August 2019: The Colts need a quarterback.
Even if Jones is healthy and able to play in all 17 games, what is the upside? In the AFC, there’s no argument for him being in the top half of quarterbacks, easily trailing Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Drake Maye, Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence and Bo Nix. There are also solid arguments for Aaron Rodgers and Cam Ward.
Jones started the season on fire in 2025, throwing 13 touchdowns against three interceptions over eight games. However, his final five games were a relative horror show as he threw six touchdowns and five interceptions along with seven fumbles (three lost), while Indianapolis plummeted to a 1–4 mark before his season-ending injury.
The Colts have good coaching. They have weapons. They don’t have a quarterback.
Realistic outlook
Because of the hard ceiling at quarterback, Indianapolis will have a tough time winning the AFC South, let alone being a playoff team.
Last year, the AFC had a bizarre campaign in which the Ravens, Bengals and Chiefs each missed the playoffs, primarily because their star quarterbacks were hurt. It’s unlikely all three will be sidelined in January once again, and that’s to say nothing of teams like the Titans and Raiders making significant upgrades this offseason in both the draft and free agency, let alone with each bringing in a new coach.
While Indianapolis is well-coached and has a deep roster to compete for a postseason berth, everything will need to break right. The Colts need Jones to stay healthy. They need Downs to replace Pittman as the second receiver. They need Allen to become Franklin. They need Gardner to stay on the field, something he didn’t do last year, when he played only 11 games. The list goes on.
That’s a big, big group of concerns and question marks for a team short on margin for error.
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MATT VERDERAME
Matt Verderame is a national NFL staff writer for Sports Illustrated, writing features, columns and more. Before joining Sports Illustrated in March 2023, Verderame wrote for FanSided and SB Nation. He’s a proud husband to Stephanie and father of two girls, Maisy and Genevieve. In his spare time, Verderame is an avid collector of vintage baseball cards.
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