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I like predicting the NFL season. I don’t think I’ve ever gotten it right once, but it’s still a good time. So, I came up with 10 early predictions.
Before you dive into these 2026 predictions, remember how absurd an accurate preseason 2025 prediction would have looked. The Seahawks and Patriots were both outside the top 16 for preseason Super Bowl odds. We didn’t even know if Jaxon Smith-Njigba could be a WR1 yet, let alone the WR1. The NFL is far harder to figure out a couple of weeks out, let alone a few months, than we want it to be.
As such, I tried to balance feasibility and outlandishness with these 10 bold preseason predictions. I refuse to be held accountable for any of them when the Saints inevitably go 3-14 or Myles Garrett has six sacks in his first season with the Rams. Let’s get started with some statistical picks. Screenshotting has been disabled on this webpage.
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Myles Garrett will hit 20 sacks
Since sacks officially became a stat in 1982, only one player has had multiple 20-plus-sack seasons: J.J. Watt in 2012 and 2014. If we include Pro Football Reference's retroactive sack charting, we get Mark Gastineau (1981 and 1984) and Deacon Jones (1964, 1967 and 1968). Jones would then be the only player to produce 20-plus sacks in consecutive years.
So, it is ridiculous to project a player to sack the opposing quarterback 20 times, as it has happened only 23 times in NFL history. But I can't think of a reason to project Garrett for any less.
Let's start with availability. Garrett has missed one game in the past five seasons. He's turning 31, of course, but it's fair to say he is in his prime after just posting a 23-sack season. And his situation has dramatically improved. It's not just that the accompanying defensive linemen in Los Angeles (Kobie Turner, Byron Young) are stronger than those in Cleveland. It’s also that Garrett will see more clear pass-rush downs with the Rams.
Third-and-long is the most common one. But what about a first-and-10 in the fourth quarter when your team is up by four points? The Browns were rarely in that situation last season, which was reflected in Garrett's distribution of pass-rush snaps. He had 448 pass-rush snaps last season, which was tied for eighth among all defenders. But when we filter for downs on which NFL Next Gen Stats gave the offense a presnap probability of dropping back to pass of at least 80%, Garrett tied for 17th with 217.
To have about 50% of your pass-rush snaps come on obvious pass downs is by no means a ridiculous proportion. But Jared Verse, whom Garrett is replacing in Los Angeles, had 241 obvious pass-rush snaps, sixth among all defenders. That’s 34 more than Garrett — two per game over a 17-game season. That’s not huge, but it’s not insignificant, either. Unless the Rams decide to manage Garrett’s pitch count for a postseason run, he should have more ripe opportunities for sacks than ever before.
I do think coordinator Chris Shula will use Garrett more often as a decoy than former Browns coordinator Jim Schwartz ever did, but I also think Shula will use more wacky fronts and blitz looks to make doubling Garrett harder than Schwartz did. So, it should all come out in the wash.
Of course, opportunities do not guarantee sacks. Garrett never had more than 16 sacks in a season until he hit 23 in 2025. (Yes, that's an absurd sentence, in which I imply 16 sacks in a 17-game season was ho-hum.) It's hard to get 20-plus sacks even in perfect context.
But again, I can't really find a good reason to say Garrett's going to be worse in 2026 besides regression. And if his sack rate regresses but his total opportunities for sacks increase … he should be in range of repeating a 20-sack year. Bonkers stuff.
Dak Prescott will become the 10th QB to throw for 5,000 yards in a season
It has been done 14 times by nine different players: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger, Dan Marino, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert and (I’ll give you a billion guesses for the last name) Jameis Winston. The most recent 5,000-yard passer was Mahomes in 2022.
To clear 5,000 passing yards in a 17-game season, a quarterback must average 294.1 passing yards per contest. In Prescott's best season (2019), he averaged 306.4 yards per contest and fell just 100 yards short of the 5,000-yard mark since there were 16 games. Interestingly, the Cowboys weren't particularly pass-happy that season with a 60.7% dropback rate, below the league average. But they had a high total number of plays because they were moving fast. In their first season under offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, no team snapped the ball with more time on the play clock. Only five offenses had more plays per game; only six ran no huddle more frequently.
Last season, the Cowboys rediscovered their superspeed ways in their first year under coach Brian Schottenheimer and coordinator Klayton Adams. The Cowboys once again led the league in play clock remaining at the snap, and this time, they led the league in offensive plays per game. Prescott had a career-high 600 total pass attempts. The volume will be there for Prescott to not just lead the league in passing in 2026 but once again to challenge the 5,000-yard milestone.
Volume is the first half of the riddle; explosiveness is the other half. To that end, the Cowboys must successfully get wide receiver George Pickens to play on the franchise tag for Prescott to reach the mark. Pickens unlocked a new level to his game in just one season with the Cowboys, as Prescott provided him with the first stable quarterback play of his NFL career.
Will the Steelers win more games than the Cowboys?
It did take Dallas some time to riddle out the chemistry between Pickens and incumbent WR1 CeeDee Lamb, and Lamb missed four games early in the season with a high ankle sprain. When both Pickens and Lamb were on the field, Prescott averaged 8.1 yards per pass attempt. When at least one was not on the field, that fell to 6.7. Lamb had a weird year in general, with a career-worst eight drops and his worst season for YAC since he was a rookie. It’s fair to project an improvement in the Cowboys’ passing game in Year 2 under Schottenheimer and Adams, as they’ve had time to iron out the wrinkles in the Lamb/Pickens pairing.
While the Cowboys' offense should get better in 2026, it'll likely remain a below-average unit, forcing them into shootouts that give Prescott additional dropbacks. There's some concern in pass protection at both tackle spots for Dallas, but no environment can be perfect. As Prescott gets older, he'll scramble less and instead throw more against pressure. Cincinnati's Joe Burrow is another good candidate to race to 5,000 over the next few seasons … but since Pickens might be a Cowboy for only one more year, I’ll pick Prescott to get over the mountain in 2026.
The Chiefs will miss the playoffs again
Two things I think are equally true. First, the Chiefs got better this offseason. Second, it isn't going to be enough.
Kansas City's roster is once again quite shaky. The Chiefs did a commendable job of building around their tentpole players (Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones) for a while. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s uncanny ability to turn middle-round defensive backs into viable starters allowed them to endure the departures of Charvarius Ward, L’Jarius Sneed and Tyrann Mathieu. Offensive linemen were acquired — Joe Thuney and Orlando Brown Jr. — then quickly replaced.
But eventually, the well runs dry. Jawaan Taylor was supposed to be a cornerstone at right tackle. Safety Chamarri Conner was supposed to be another Spagnuolo success story. Felix Anudike-Uzomah would bring much-needed juice on the edge. Wide receiver Hollywood Brownwould alleviate the lost effect of Tyreek Hill. Contenders with pricey rosters must be constantly innovating in scheme and finding low-salaried contributors in both the draft and free agency. General manager Brett Veach failed to do his part, while coach Andy Reid’s offense grew stale.
Of particular concern was the Chiefs' handoff game. It didn't exist. In theory, physical downhill runners Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt would keep their shotgun-heavy offense on schedule, forcing opposing defenses to at least respect the ground game. But Pacheco and Hunt proved so painfully unexplosive that defenses never had to fear a light box giving up a big run. The 2024 and 2025 Chiefs had two of the three least explosive seasons on running back carries this century.
Of course, the front office saw this and addedKenneth Walker III, a home run hitter and the reigning Super Bowl MVP. But ideally, running back is one of those positions with which a contending team wins in the financial margins. The Chiefs had to pay sticker price to sign Walker because of their inability to develop an alternative. That means they have less room for error in places like the secondary, where both Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie are no longer taking snaps. And at receiver, where Rashee Rice must once again be the load-bearing wall of a thin group.
Riddick after Mahomes extension: Chiefs love absolutely everything about him
The Chiefs are halfway through taking some of their contract lumps and reconstructing the roster into a younger, cheaper and deeper group. Jones has no guaranteed money left on his deal after 2026. Kelce is essentially on a year-to-year deal at this point. The Chiefs are preparing for a new era, but they aren't there just yet.
As such, while I expect a better Chiefs team in 2026 — one that actually gets big gains on the ground and gets after the passer more consistently with rookies Peter Woods and R Mason Thomas — I don’t expect a viable AFC West contender. The Broncos have a clearly better roster across the board. The Chargers are fairly equal in talent and might explode offensively under new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel. The rest of the conference remains as deep and intimidating as always. There are only seven playoff spots to go around, and I don’t think the Chiefs have a top-seven roster in the AFC.
And that's before we get to the Mahomes injury. A torn ACL in December is nothing to sneeze at, even if his recovery looks like it’s going well. Every game Mahomes doesn’t play in September is a game the Chiefs might fall behind in the division and in the conference. Even if Mahomes suits up for the season opener against Denver, it’s fair to wonder about his scrambling ability — a critical part of Kansas City’s passing success — as he gains confidence in his knee. An early-season loss could be the difference come playoff seeding time.
The Texans will win the AFC
Disclaimer: I reserve the right to change this prediction before Week 1 as we get more news about Denver quarterback Bo Nix’s ankle and health. The Broncos’ roster is so stinking good.
It feels like many people are selling Texans stock following C.J. Stroud’s playoff disaster class in 2025. I’m happy to scoop it all up at a discount.
Stroud's two postseason games against the Steelers and Patriots were the worst ball we’ve ever seen him play. Were they his only postseason performances, perhaps we could theorize that he’s a playoff choker — but he was a totally acceptable quarterback in his four playoff games prior to 2025. This is an example of the correct explanation being the simplest one: Stroud — coming off a concussion, in his first year of the Nick Caley offense and playing in inclement weather — was just trying to do too much. He had 10 giveaways in two games. He just fell apart.
Stroud's bad games trend more disastrous than those of other QBs because he's a big-play hunter. He also has no running game to rely on, which was a big offseason focus for the Texans. Houston extendedEd Ingram, traded for Wyatt Teller, signedBraden Smith and drafted Keylan Rutledge on the line. All four of those offensive linemen are capable of playing on the interior and are known for their run blocking. Running back David Montgomery, the epitome of a Steady Eddie, between-the-tackles runner, was also acquired. The priority is clear.
If the Texans really do give Stroud a good ground game in the 2026 season, it'll be the first one he has had. Since he entered the league in 2023, the Texans are 31st in both rushing success rate and EPA per rush. This doesn't just allow opposing pass rushes to tee off against Stroud or lighten the box to flood coverages downfield. It also dulls the edge of Houston's stupendous defense, as the team can't grind the clock away on offense with a reliable rushing attack.
Lost in the bluster of the Seahawks' Super Bowl run was just how well the Texans' defense was playing. Houston was second to Seattle in points per drive allowed by a hair (1.48 to 1.52). By success rate, the Texans were the fifth-best passing defense of the past 15 seasons. I'd call it a once-in-a-decade defense if not for the fact the Seahawks and Broncos put up similarly spectacular numbers.
Somehow, Houston lost nobody from this defense. The 11 leading snap getters from last season are all back and healthy for 2026, and the Texans added another starter in free agent safety Reed Blankenship. He should fill a traditional box safety role that was perhaps the only below-average position on the entire depth chart. The player with the most snaps no longer on the roster (Derek Barnett, 388) is currently a free agent — the Texans could bring him back if they wanted to.
It isn't just the roster that stayed consistent. They didn't lose a coach. Defensive coordinator Matt Burke, who got a head coaching interview with the Cardinals, didn't leave. Defensive backs coach Dino Vasso got defensive coordinator interest but withdrew from consideration. None of the positional coaches left.
It's hard to get my head around the potential of the Texans' defense in 2026. This isn't a defense that opposing offenses can solve in an offseason, either. They run a basic menu of coverages and don't try to hide their hand much. It's not a sneaky schemed-up system with yet-undiscovered weak points. The Texans are just bigger and faster and more talented than you, and if that ever stops working, they hit unbelievably hard.
The Texans are absolutely capable of authoring a 2025 Seahawks-esque season, and we know where that ends up. The loaded AFC makes such a route harder, but the Texans' offense also has a ceiling higher than what the 2025 Seahawks offense reached. If the biggest impediment to a deep run is simply not getting the worst of Stroud we've ever seen … I'll make that bet.
The Saints will win the NFC South
All it took last season to win the division was eight wins! Three teams tied at 8-9 — the Panthers, Buccaneers and Falcons — while the Saints manned the basement at 6-11. So, you can think of this less as "Ben predicts the Saints to go from worst to first" and more as "Ben predicts the Saints to go from second to first."
The Saints were in pursuit of the No. 1 pick before a 4-1 finish to the season under rookie quarterback Tyler Shough, who played well enough as a second-round pick to earn the starting job for another season.
Shough grabs the headlines because he's the shiny new quarterback, but the Saints' strong finish was far more about their defense than their offense. Coordinator Brandon Staley's unit was 13th in DVOA (11th in weighted DVOA, which prefers recent games) and sixth in success rate. Only the Seahawks and Broncos allowed explosive plays at a lower rate. Only three defenses — those two and the Vikings — got stops more often on third down.
Staley's group pulled this off without spectacular talent. Save for the late-career emergence of Chase Young, who finally looks healthy and dynamic as a pass rusher, the defense doesn’t have blue-chip talent. And that reality is reflected on New Orleans’ books, ranking 29th in total spending on defense. The Saints did lose two important players in free agency: slot corner Alontae Taylor and linchpin linebacker Demario Davis, both of whom played over 1,000 snaps. A lot is riding on 2025 third-rounder Jonas Sanker, who started at safety last season and is transitioning to fill Taylor’s nickel role. The young corners, Kool-Aid McKinstry (2024 second-rounder) and Quincy Riley (2025 fourth-rounder), also need to keep improving.
I trust Staley to field an above-average unit once again. The Saints' chances of winning the South rest in the improvement of their offense.
A full offseason of Shough as the unquestioned QB1 should allow the Saints to pick up right where he left off. He wanted to be a quick-game distributor last season — 46% of his throws were out in 2.5 seconds, eighth among all quarterbacks. But point-guarding only goes so far with a below-average pass-catching room. Behind Chris Olave, the Saints’ leading wideouts (following the Rashid Shaheedtrade) were Devaughn Vele and Mason Tipton. The Saints triple-dipped at receiver with first-rounder Jordyn Tyson and two more Day 3 selections (Bryce Lance, Barion Brown). Someone needs to emerge.
The better news for Shough is how much the Saints' running game is about to improve. From Week 9 on (Shough's starts), the Saints were 31st in yards per rush and rushing success rate. Save for the Raiders, this was the worst rushing attack in football — and it was clearly the offseason priority for coach Kellen Moore and general manager Mickey Loomis.
The Saints spent big money to bring in guard David Edwards and running back Travis Etienne Jr. They signed Noah Fant to beef up their tight end room, then doubled down with Oscar Delp in the third round. As the Saints’ young tackle duo of Kelvin Banks Jr. and Taliese Fuaga continues to improve, and center Erik McCoy returns from injury, the potential for this running game grows.
The Saints look like an ascendant team to me. They have a young quarterback good enough to win with, sharp coaches on both sides of the ball, good offensive line play and enough young bets at the skill positions for this offense to be more than just Olave. They're a few blue-chip players away from true contention, but in the measly NFC South with a fourth-place schedule? A divisional title is achievable.
The Vikings will win the NFC North
Sportsbooks have the Vikings as the clear fourth in the division, and it's an easy case to make. Not only do the other three teams have clear quarterback stability, but they also have recently produced very strong offenses with said quarterbacks. The Vikings are coming off the J.J. McCarthy year with various Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer intermissions. Brutal stuff. While the free agent signing of Kyler Murray should elevate them back to above-average quarterback play, it’s a bet the other three squads don’t have to risk.
Here's my counterpoint: the other side of the ball. The Vikings are the only defense I trust in this division. The Packers won't have edge rusher Micah Parsons for the first half of the season and lost defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley to the Dolphins. The Bears’ defense was first in EPA on takeaways and 30th in EPA on all other plays — it’s unlikely they run that pure in turnover luck once again. The Lions had solid defensive metrics last season but have undergone enormous turnover in the secondary. Amik Robertsonleft in free agency, Terrion Arnoldwas released following his arrest in Florida, and safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are not expected to be healthy to start the season. For a team that likes to play man coverage, that’s especially worrisome.
Meanwhile, in Minnesota, Brian Flores continues chugging along as the best defensive coordinator in the NFL. His creative maximizations of subpar talent stand above the work done by Philly's Vic Fangio and Denver's Vance Joseph on superior rosters. There were important departures this year — Jonathan Greenard, Harrison Smith — but Flores has consistently shown that he can beat the other sideline with X’s and O’s. With improved talent at defensive tackle via the draft (Caleb Banks and Domonique Orange), the Vikings’ interior run defense might stiffen up. That has been their only Achilles’ heel.
If the Vikings' defense remains a needle-moving unit, then a functional offense could return them to their 2024 status under QB Sam Darnold. Minnesota went 14-3 that year, losing the division in Week 17 to the Lions. It’s unreasonable to expect another 14 wins in a division this tough, but Murray easily has the requisite talent to make 2025 a typo in coach Kevin O’Connell’s résumé. (And even then, that typo was a 9-8 season.)
O'Connell's aptitude for adjusting his offense to his quarterback remains one of the league's more impressive skills. It wasn't just the Darnold year. He did it for Joshua Dobbs as a midseason trade acquisition in 2023. He did it for McCarthy last season, giving him far more out-breaking routes than he had given other passers. I have questions about the Vikings’ offensive line and running game, and Murray’s inconsistencies might prove too much for the offense to be truly trustworthy. But I’m confident O’Connell will set him up for success, and Murray has huge earning potential on the free agent market in 2027. He’ll be motivated to perform.
I'm not particularly down on the Lions or Bears (though a little dubious of the Packers), so any outcome in the NFC North wouldn't surprise me much. I just don't think the Vikings deserve to be a clear fourth in the pecking order of what should be a highly competitive group once again.
Could the Vikings’ QB situation cause locker room drama?
Jonathan Taylor will get traded to the Bears
In a just world, Taylor wins Offensive Player of the Year in 2025. We often frame the Colts' red-hot start in the context of quarterback Daniel Jones’ stats, so here’s a Taylor reminder. Through the first 10 weeks of the season (i.e. before Jones hurt a fibula), Taylor had 1,139 yards. That 114 yards-per-game average would have given him 1,938 yards on the season. He had also rushed for 15 touchdowns (yes, 15 touchdowns!) by this point and caught another two. The single-season record for scrimmage touchdowns belongs to LaDainian Tomlinson, who had 31 in his MVP season in 2006. Taylor was on pace for 29, well within range.
Once the Colts' quarterback situation collapsed, the entire offense fell apart — Taylor with it. The Colts ran from under center and multi-TE sets far less often, as Philip Rivers' limitations all but demanded gun alignments and spread sets. But Taylor's missed tackle rate also plummeted. He was only 26 last season, but he has been in the league for six years and had 300-plus carries in consecutive seasons now. There is some wear on those tires.
Taylor's 2026 might pick up right where his 2025 ended. If Jones is unable to start the season, Taylor will share a backfield with Riley Leonard or Anthony Richardson Sr. and continue to find tough sledding between the tackles. Even when Jones returns, it’s highly unlikely he has the same level of defensive respect he got throughout the fall of 2025.
Taylor is approaching the last year on his deal, so the Colts will need to decide if they want to give the 27-year-old a big third contract. It's rare to see an NFL running back make it that deep into his career. Derrick Henry’s third deal was with the Ravens — a preposterous two-year, $16 million deal that looks like a bargain now. Christian McCaffrey didn’t finish his second deal before the 49ers hit him with a two-year, $38 million extension. Taylor’s value would fall somewhere between those two deals, but the item of interest isn’t the value. It’s the length.
Taylor will be younger than both Henry and McCaffrey when his deal approaches, and he'll be able to argue quite easily that he's the most valuable player on the Colts' offense. They just extendedAlec Pierce, a low-volume shot-play artist, to a deal that implies he’ll be an every-down WR1. They just extended Jones, off an Achilles tear, on a two-year contract. Taylor has been far more productive for far longer in Indianapolis. But as we might remember, his last contract negotiation with the Colts got fairly icy. Now that he’s three years older and likely beyond his peak — and as the Colts stare down a potential rebuild, should the Jones bet fail — this could be the last season we see Taylor play for them.
If the Colts come out of the gates slow and consider an organizational change midseason, then Taylor surely would draw trade interest. His start to 2025 proved he still has "best RB in the league" potential left in his legs, especially if his total touches are more carefully managed. A playoff-aspiring team that has viable change-of-pace backs but no dominant starter would love to grab Taylor for a one-year rental. Should he perform well, that team could give him that two-year, pay-as-we-go extension that running backs often get with their third contract.
The Bears make perfect sense. D’Andre Swift had a strong 2025 season, but he has not been reliable and has dealt with injuries for much of his career. Kyle Monangai is a likable thumper but not for more than 10 or so carries per game. If the Bears’ offense coalesces into a top-five unit — certainly possible given how they finished the 2025 season — they might be fishing at the deadline for a field-tipping running back to give them an additional edge. Chicago’s rushing attack led the league in success rate last season, thanks in large part to great line play and excellent scheming from coach Ben Johnson. Now imagine that group with a home run hitter like Taylor breaking into the second level.
The Colts are an impossible team to predict with confidence in 2026. All-in aggression and total deconstruction are both possible given the change in ownership, the hot seat for both head coach and general manager, and the wide range of outcomes at quarterback. But either at the deadline or in the 2027 offseason, they'll be faced with a tough Taylor decision. Enjoy him in Indianapolis while you still can.
Sam LaPorta will get traded to the Panthers
Every time I look at the Lions' roster and cap sheet, I come away thinking they should trade LaPorta.
The Lions have three big potential extensions coming down the mountain: Jahmyr Gibbs, Brian Branch and LaPorta. Those three, along with the already-extendedJack Campbell, are the team’s first four picks of the 2023 draft class that jump-started this era of Lions football. All are deserving of big fat deals.
But it's hard to carry that many market-setting second contracts and remain flexible for future free agent signings or trade acquisitions. Detroit already carries sizable second contracts at five of the highest-paid positions: QB (Jared Goff), WR (Amon-Ra St. Brown), edge rusher (Aidan Hutchinson) and OT (Penei Sewell). Kerby Joseph is the third-highest paid safety to boot!
Of course, the cap is ballooning at unprecedented rates. With aggressive backloading and early extensions, the Lions could fit all three of Gibbs, Branch and LaPorta on their books. Because they don't need to trade anyone, they can be picky in what deals they listen to for which players. Gibbs is practically untouchable and will likely be extended before either LaPorta or Branch. But both of those latter two should be acquirable.
Branch tore an Achilles late in the 2025 season and likely won’t be ready for Week 1. It’s hard to imagine any team sending a strong trade package for Branch until it sees him return to his previous form. Were the Lions to look at trade options for Branch this summer and fall, it would send up red flags to the acquiring team that his rehab might not be going well. He feels like a wait-and-see player.
That leaves us with LaPorta. His rookie season was eye-popping: 86 catches, 889 yards, 10 TDs. But as Jameson Williams has developed into Detroit’s WR2, LaPorta has lost some volume. His 25% target per route as a rookie fell to 19.7% over the past two seasons, barely above Williams’ 18.4%. However, Williams has LaPorta unsurprisingly beat in yards per target, yards per route and explosive receptions per target. A Williams target is simply more valuable than a LaPorta target.
LaPorta is still quite explosive for a tight end and a safety valve for Goff, who gets frustrated with Williams' erraticism at times. But when building a list of "who we want to get the ball to" in Detroit, LaPorta is a clear fourth behind St. Brown, Williams and Gibbs — all of whom will be on big contracts once Gibbs signs an extension. Do the Lions want their fourth option to be making over $15 million per year? And especially when LaPorta isn't an impactful blocker, often hidden from that role by St. Brown and Isaac TeSlaa?
Logic takes me to a place where the Lions should listen to trade offers on LaPorta. But who would call? The Bengals want to do more multi-TE sets and are likely to move on from Mike Gesicki’s contract in 2027 — but do they have the cap room for LaPorta? The Dolphins have room for anyone and everyone on their reloading roster — but do they want to be dealing picks?
I landed on the Panthers, who have a deep tight end room but no difference-making pass catcher in the group. They could easily flip one of their young tight ends back to Detroit and carve out targets for LaPorta. Coach Dave Canales loves to get his tight ends YAC opportunities near the line of scrimmage, which fits LaPorta's style. And because the Panthers' starting receivers are big-bodied blockers (Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker), LaPorta can hide in the running game.
Again, the Lions don't have to move LaPorta. But if I were a rival GM, I'd be calling and making offers.
Brock Bowers will win Offensive Player of the Year
A tight end has never won the AP Offensive Player of the Year. The closest one has gotten was Travis Kelce in 2020, with a whopping three votes to tie Bills QB Josh Allen for fourth. Arizona’s Trey McBride got a first-place vote last year for his 126-catch, 1,239-yard, 11-touchdown season — rightfully so. But it would have been tough to catch Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
But this year, Smith-Njigba's old coordinator is Bowers' new coach. Klint Kubiak proved in Seattle that he can funnel targets to a star pass catcher through a variety of alignments and motions. Bowers is capable of lining up attached to the line, in the slot and out wide. It might already feel like he has been funneled targets in the Raiders’ poor offense, but he has only a 24.8% target rate on routes run over his two years in the NFL. That’s 21st among all high-volume receivers (200-plus routes) and fourth among tight ends.
Bowers had his record-setting rookie production (112 catches, 1,194 yards) with quarterbacks Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O’Connell throwing him the vast majority of his targets. Last season, Geno Smith was the passer, and the raw production dropped. Bowers also missed time with injury. It felt like he fell off an untenable rookie pace.
But Bowers' catch rate stayed steady (74% in both seasons), and his yards per reception stayed steady (10.7 to 10.6). He was just targeted less — on 23.6% of his routes in 2025 relative to 27.4% in 2024. Such a decrease simply shouldn't happen again under Kubiak. And as the new coach tries to return Bowers to his rightful place as the unquestioned leading target, the quarterback play should be the best of Bowers' career — whether from Kirk Cousins or Fernando Mendoza.
Bowers can't just feast as the lone option on a losing team, though. That's what McBride did — he set the tight end record with 126 receptions last season, beating the previous mark by 10 catches. But nobody cared about the Cardinals, so his draw against Smith-Njigba (and Christian McCaffrey and Puka Nacua and Bijan Robinson) was really tough. It will take a soft draw for Bowers to emerge, but given the attention with Mendoza in hand, I think he’ll see enough shine that he wins this award with a record-setting season of his own. McBride did it with catches, but I think Bowers might be better suited to unseat Kelce’s 1,416 receiving yards from 2020.
Antonio Williams will win Offensive Rookie of the Year
Who? Williams was the 71st pick of the 2026 draft and the ninth receiver off the board. Although receivers have recently won this award more frequently, we haven’t seen late-drafted players break into the ranks. Even Nacua’s 105 receptions for 1,486 yards weren’t enough to beat C.J. Stroud’s strong rookie season in 2023. The latest-drafted receiver to win Rookie of the Year was Anquan Boldin in 2003 — the 54th pick was a unanimous selection.
It'll take a down year for a late-drafted WR to win this award, but this looks like a down year. Only two quarterbacks were taken in the first two rounds, and one of them (Ty Simpson) has no chance of earning a starting job. Should Mendoza not surpass Cousins until midseason or struggle statistically when he starts, the field opens up.
The running back class this year was historically weak. RB3 (Kaelon Black) left the board at No. 90 — the latest the third running back has been taken in the common draft era (since 1967). Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are the two first-round running backs, but Price is reportedly facing a timeshare in Seattle, while Love will labor on a bad Cardinals team eyeing the 2027 No. 1 pick. The likelihood a running back wins the award this season is as thin as I can remember.
That technically leaves wide receivers and tight ends, though (like OPOY) a tight end has never won the award. There are a couple of obvious bets early in the first round: Carnell Tate, whom the Titans surprisingly took with the No. 4 pick, and Makai Lemon, who enters an Eagles receiver room with an A.J. Brown-sized void to fill.
But Williams has an opportunity that stacks up against many of his early-drafted contemporaries. There is hardly any competition in the Commanders' receiver room behind Terry McLaurin. Williams will catch passes from Jayden Daniels, a remarkably better quarterback than players such as KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston (Browns) or Omar Cooper Jr. (Jets) will work with in 2026. Williams still needs to dodge the late-summer addition of a Brandon Aiyuk or Stefon Diggs, but his path to high-quality targets is shockingly clear for a third-round pick.
Williams is also a hand-in-glove fit for David Blough's Detroit-inspired offense. Williams is an easy glider who makes fearless catches over the middle of the field. He dramatically improved his drop rate in 2025 and has that knack for QB friendliness: smart routes, good adjustments to bad balls, inside/out versatility and YAC ability. He is evidently cut from the Amon-Ra St. Brown cloth, and St. Brown's reliability helped him break into the Lions' starting lineup as a fourth-round rookie.
Williams had 300 fewer receiving yards and 20 fewer receptions in 2025 compared with 2024. But that decline was a reflection of a larger offensive issue at Clemson — not any deterioration in his individual play. If the Commanders suddenly need to funnel six-plus targets per game his way, he has the deep toolkit and reliable play style to sustain that volume. There are few middle-round rookies for whom I have rosier Year 1 projections than Williams.
