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Welcome to Super Bowl LXI road maps, where we look at every team’s chances of winning it all in 2026. We’ll analyze the summer optimism before providing a reality check of what’s to come. Next path to assess: the Chiefs.
In 2025, the Chiefs discovered the law of gravity firsthand. What goes up, most come down.
After reaching seven consecutive AFC championship games and five Super Bowls during that span, which includes three titles, and becoming the first back-to-back champion in two decades, Kansas City crashed to earth, suffering its first losing season since 2012, before Andy Reid arrived. Last season, the Chiefs went 6–11, and lost superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL and LCL in Week 15 against the Chargers.
In the ensuing offseason, the Chiefs made plenty of changes. They revamped the offensive coaching staff (more on that momentarily), used their first four draft picks on defense and signed the Super Bowl MVP to lead their backfield.
All in all, Kansas City hopes to prove last season was a fluke and not the beginning of a downward trend.
Leadership
The Chiefs took a scalpel to their offensive coaching staff. While Reid is back for his 14th season, he has moved on from offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, running backs coach Todd Pinkston and receivers coach Connor Embree.
In their places, a familiar face returned to replace Nagy, Eric Bieniemy, who was the OC when Kansas City won its first two championships of the Mahomes era in 2019 and ’22. With Bieniemy, the Chiefs get accountability, creativity and a loud voice, something the team sorely lacked last season.
In the positional spots, former NFL star DeMarco Murray is getting his first shot as a pro running backs coach, while longtime assistant Chad O’Shea replaces Embree. His challenge is to get the most out of Rashee Rice, who will be entering a contract year fresh off knee surgery and a stint in county jail.
Defensively, the show is still run by four-time Super Bowl champion Steve Spagnuolo, the only defensive coordinator to win Super Bowls with two teams. Spagnuolo is in his eighth season in Kansas City, and he’ll oversee a group with proven vets in defensive linemen George Karlaftis and Chris Jones, and linebacker Nick Bolton, and a plethora of rookies in first-round picks Mansoor Delane and Peter Woods, alongside second-round edge rusher R Mason Thomas and fourth-round slot corner Jadon Canady.
Overall, it’s an experienced staff with plenty of jewelry that’s adding some new blood.
Most influential roster move
Kansas City’s addition of Kenneth Walker III shows a real interest in the run game for the first time since Kareem Hunt’s first stint ended in 2018. Since then, the Chiefs haven’t had a 1,000-yard rusher.
Last season, Isiah Pacheco and Hunt took turns rushing into the backsides of their linemen, gaining a paltry 3.8 yards per carry between them. In the offseason, Pacheco signed a one-year deal with the Lions, while the 30-year-old Hunt remains a free agent. To upgrade, general manager Brett Veach signed Walker to a three-year, $43 million contract, fresh off the second 1,000-yard season of his career.
With Walker, Kansas City gets the dynamic back it was in dire need of. Last year, the Chiefs had three explosive runs (20-plus yards). One was from Mahomes. Another was from receiver Xavier Worthy. Walker had 10 by himself in that same span, before gaining 313 yards and four touchdowns in the postseason on his way to a championship.
As Mahomes recovers from a knee injury, Walker will likely be relied upon to help carry the offense. And behind a line that includes All-Pro center Creed Humphrey, Pro Bowl right guard Trey Smith and a burgeoning star in left tackle Josh Simmons, he should find plenty of open space.
Why this offseason move will work
Reid bringing back Bieniemy might be the biggest coaching move any team has made this winter, including head coaches.
While there are other factors, including the quality of their pass catchers being markedly lackluster, the Chiefs’ offense was noticeably worse under Nagy over the past three years. With Bieniemy and his fiery approach, Kansas City won two Super Bowls while Mahomes took home multiple MVPs and Super Bowl MVPs. With Nagy, the Chiefs won another title but did so primarily because of their second-ranked scoring defense and the wizardry of Spagnuolo, as the offense was 15th in points.
Over the past three years, Kansas City has ranked 15th, 15th and 21st in scoring despite having Mahomes and, for two of those years, an interior line featuring All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney, Humphrey and Smith, to say nothing of future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce. This is in stark contrast to Bieniemy’s output, which saw the team rank first in scoring in 2022 while Mahomes threw for 5,250 yards on his way to an MVP and a second title.
As Bieniemy returns after three stops in three years with the Commanders, UCLA and the Bears, so will some of the urgency we haven’t seen from Kansas City’s attack. The Chiefs were not only failing to score, but also hurting themselves by taking 119 penalties last season, seventh-most in the league. In 2022, Bieniemy’s final year in Kansas City, the Chiefs had the seventh-fewest penalties.
Breakout player candidate: Xavier Worthy, WR
Worthy appeared destined for stardom after his rookie year. Over the final 10 games of his initial season (including playoffs), he caught 58 passes for 679 yards and six touchdowns. Stretched over a full 17-game slate, that would equate to 98 receptions for 1,154 yards and 10 scores.
But three plays into his 2025 campaign, everything changed. Kelce slammed into Worthy on a crossing route in Brazil, tearing Worthy’s labrum and forcing him to miss three games. While the second-year wideout was able to suit up for 14 contests, he was never healthy due to shoulder and ankle injuries, the latter of which required offseason surgery.
This offseason, Worthy bulked up and starred at minicamp, something noted by Reid in his wrap-up press conference. Going into his third season, the Chiefs desperately need Worthy to become the player he seemed to be developing into before everything went wrong in a 42-catch, 532-yard season a year ago.
If Worthy can develop into a 1,000-yard receiver or something close to it alongside Rice, provided he maintains his freedom for a few months, Kansas City will have a duo of talented receivers for Mahomes to deploy.
Missing piece
Kansas City will be relying heavily on a pair of rookies to provide the pass rush it couldn’t find last year, with first-round pick Peter Woods and second-rounder R Mason Thomas under the microscope.
Woods was a force at Clemson in 2024, racking up 8.5 tackles for loss and three sacks. However, after slimming down by 20 pounds, he saw his numbers and impact dip, going to 3.5 TFLs and two sacks. Even with the signing of run-stuffing defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga to play alongside Chris Jones, expect Woods to see plenty of action on passing downs.
As for Thomas, he was a shocking choice for the Chiefs, considering their history of edge rushers with Spagnuolo. Kansas City has always coveted bigger ends to play in the 4–3 scheme, ranging from Frank Clark (272 pounds) and George Karlaftis (263 pounds) to Allen Bailey (285 pounds) and Carlos Dunlap (288 pounds). Thomas is a slender 239 pounds with speed to burn around the edge, giving the Chiefs a unique look for their front.
If Thomas and/or Woods can create havoc as rookies, Kansas City suddenly has a very formidable trio of pass rushers. Last season, the Chiefs ranked tied for 22nd with 35 sacks, despite blitzing at the third-highest rate. And, this despite Jones and Karlaftis combining for 48 quarterback hits. Only the Broncos, Browns, Rams, Lions and Giants had a combination featuring a better number.
Realistic outlook
The Rams are the clear Super Bowl favorite. After them, you have roughly 8–10 teams in the mix as contenders. The Chiefs are one of those teams.
Kansas City is trying to redefine itself. Veach has invested in running the ball, not only signing Walker but adding Emari Demercado alongside fifth-round rookie Emmett Johnson from Nebraska. The Chiefs also completely revamped their defense around speed and athleticism with safety Alohi Gilman, and corners Delane and Canady in the secondary, and Thomas and Woods up front. It’s similar to what Kansas City did in 2022, when it had six defensive rookies make significant contributions to winning a Super Bowl.
Of course, so much relies on Mahomes’s repaired left knee. If he stays upright, the Chiefs are a threat. If Rice can stay out of jail and on the field after playing 12 games over the past two seasons, they’re a threat. If the pass rush beyond Jones and Karlaftis isn’t as anemic as it was a year ago, they’re a threat. And, if Bieniemy can coax a heck of a lot more from the offense than Nagy did, they’re a threat.
But that’s a lot more “ifs” than we normally see in Kansas City. So, while the Chiefs are dangerous and could hoist the Lombardi Trophy, they are also staring at a season with ample uncertainty.
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MATT VERDERAME
Matt Verderame is a national NFL staff writer for Sports Illustrated, writing features, columns and more. Before joining Sports Illustrated in March 2023, Verderame wrote for FanSided and SB Nation. He’s a proud husband to Stephanie and father of two girls, Maisy and Genevieve. In his spare time, Verderame is an avid collector of vintage baseball cards.
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