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Patrick Everson FOX Sports Betting Analyst
As World Cup odds reach the knockout stage, the top teams are drawing plenty of support in championship futures. France, Argentina, Spain and England are well-backed, as are Portugal and Brazil.
But since this 48-team tournament began on June 11, the most popular team in World Cup futures bets is the United States.
And though the loss to Türkiye was disappointing, the Stars & Stripes bandwagon continues to grow.
"The USA is by far our worst result in the book," Caesars Sports head of soccer trading Mark Bickerdike said Saturday. "The combination of pre-tournament patriotic money and continued backing after their early performances has created a sizable liability."
With the knockout stage opening Sunday, Bickerdike helps dive into World Cup futures odds for the remaining 32 teams, starting with the USA.
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Minor Setback
Through two matches, the U.S. was one of the biggest climbers in 2026 World Cup futures. Pre-tourney, Caesars Sports had the USA at +5000, behind a dozen or so teams.
The impressive 4-1 rout of Paraguay led Caesars to adjust the U.S. to +4000. And the 2-0 blanking of Australia pushed the American side to +2800, inside the top 10.
Thursday night, the USA suffered its first setback, losing to Türkiye 3-2 on a goal in the waning seconds of second-half injury time. That gave Caesars’ risk room just a bit of pause, as the U.S. slipped from +2800 to +3000.
"While the loss to Türkiye had no impact on the group standings, it did slightly dent confidence in the market," Bickerdike said. "The fact that they lost the game means they will be going into the Bosnia and Herzegovina fixture with slightly less momentum.
"The result also raised some minor questions around the USA’s depth. That’s been enough to see a small drift in their outright price."
Money From The Masses
But the public betting masses have no such questions, piling on the U.S., which is now No. 9 on Caesars’ World Cup odds board.
"Over the past two weeks, the USA has comfortably been our most popular selection in the ‘Tournament Winner’ market. That was expected to a degree, as a host nation," Bickerdike said. "But their strong start triggered a significant increase in both wagers and overall money.
"Even after the Türkiye result, we haven’t seen any meaningful pullback in support."
The U.S. lifting the trophy is still an improbable outcome. If it somehow happens, though, U.S. bookmakers will take a massive bath, while the masses revel in a huge betting victory.
"If the U.S. goes deep into the tournament, that exposure will only continue to grow," Bickerdike said. "And if they were to lift the trophy, I'd fully expect it to be the biggest loss we’ve ever seen on a soccer tournament."
Oddsmaker Optimism
As Bickerdike alluded to, the Americans face Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32, at 8 p.m. ET Wednesday on FOX. On the three-way moneyline, the USA is a sizable -265 favorite, with Bosnia +700 and Draw +360, as of late Saturday night.
And yes, to remind, there can be a draw through 90 minutes plus injury time. The match then goes to overtime.
So treat this as a public service announcement: If you bet USA on the three-way moneyline, and the match is tied after 90 minutes plus injury time, then you lose that bet, even if the USA wins in overtime or on penalty kicks.
There’s also a 'To Advance' market, which accounts for the possibility of overtime/penalty kicks. But the USA is an even bigger favorite in that market, at -625 to Bosnia’s +390.
All those odds suggest that the U.S. advances. Bickerdike, a Brit who knows his soccer, expects that to be the case.
"There will be two contrasting styles of play on show, with the high-tempo and aggressive style of a Mauricio Pochettino team coming up against the compact and direct style of Bosnia and Herzegovina," he said. "I think this is a good matchup for the USA, and they have a real reason to be optimistic about reaching the Round of 16.
"From that point on, the real tests are likely to begin, with the USA likely to face Belgium and then Spain."
Belgium is No. 11 in Caesars’ World Cup futures, at +4000, and opens the knockout stage against Senegal, also in a Wednesday match.
Spain, as noted above, is among the best teams in the world, currently the +800 fourth choice to lift the trophy. The only teams ahead of Spain are +350 favorite France, defending champion Argentina (+400) and England (+750).
Spain opens the knockout stage against Austria on Thursday.
Take Me To Your Leaders
Speaking of the top teams, before the Group Stage opened on June 11, France and Spain were co-favorites at Caesars, both +450 to lift the trophy.
However, Spain opened play with a shocking 0-0 draw against surprising Cape Verde. Since that point, France has been the solo favorite, and as noted above, Spain is now the fourth choice in World Cup odds, followed by Portugal and Brazil, both at +1200.
"As you’d expect, France, Spain, Argentina, England and Portugal are well-backed and sit among our most popular teams in the market," Bickerdike said. "Portugal, in particular, has seen a strong surge in both bets and handle since the tournament began.
"Among that group, Portugal is currently the outcome we’d be most keen to avoid, from a liability perspective."
Don’t sleep on always-popular Brazil, either.
After a 1-1 opening draw vs. Morocco, Viní Jr. & Co. rolled over Haiti and Scotland by identical 3-0 scores.
There’s also a surging Netherlands squad getting bettors’ attention. The Dutch opened with a 2-2 draw vs. Japan, then swamped Sweden 5-1 and topped Tunisia 3-1.
The Netherlands began the World Cup at +2000 in championship futures, and can still be had at+1600.
"After the USA, the Netherlands represent our second-largest liability. They’ve shortened into +1600 following impressive early results," Bickerdike said. "Although they have looked good in the group stage, they face a potentially difficult route to the final, which does not work in their favor."
The Netherlands faces a capable Morocco squad in the Round of 32. If the Dutch clear that hurdle, they’d face a potentially lesser test in the Round of 16, against either Canada or South Africa.
But in the quarterfinals, France or Germany could be waiting, and possibly Spain in the semis.
Viva Mexico?
Mexico rolled through Group A, maxing out with three wins for nine points. El Tri dispatched South Africa 2-0 in the opener, then hung on for a 1-0 win against a solid South Korea squad.
Mexico capped the group stage with a 3-0 victory over Czechia, netting all three goals in the second half. It is now +5000 in World Cup futures odds.
"Mexico has also been a very popular selection, particularly with regional bettors and as another host nation," Bickerdike said. "They’re currently our third-largest liability in the outright market.
"That said, their route looks difficult, starting with a tough Round of 32 matchup against Ecuador and potentially becoming even more challenging from there. That’s reflected in their current odds."
Although Ecuador is a distant +17500 (175/1) to win the tournament, the gap between Ecuador and Mexico is small heading into Tuesday’s match. Mexico is a +113 favorite on the three-way moneyline, with Ecuador +260 and Draw +205.
If Mexico advances, then England could well be waiting in the Round of 16, and Brazil and Argentina could stand in the Mexicans’ way as well.
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